鉴于其规模、成本效益和英伟达的支撑,CRWV 是低执行风险下首选的 Neocloud 股票。
逐段跳播
其次,这一类别包括Neoclouds,即专门的AI基础设施提供商,如Cororeweave、Nebius和Iron,它们是本视频的重点。其中一家是相当明显的赢家,当我们进行比较时,我会告诉你是哪一家。
And second, this category includes the Neoclouds, specialized AI infrastructure providers like Cororeweave, Nebius, and Iron, which are the focus of this video. One of them is the pretty clear winner, and I'll show you which one when we compare them.
至少就近期而言,有三个重要理由让我们把注意力放在Neoclouds而非其他类型的公司上。首先,它们与各类AI买家都有交易,从Perplexity和Figure AI这样的初创公司,一直到超大规模云服务商本身。
这意味着即使是它们的直接竞争对手也是它们的客户。
There are three big reasons to focus on Neoclouds above other kinds of companies, at least for the near- term. First, they have deals with every kind of AI buyer, from startups like Perplexity and Figure AI all the way to the hyperscalers themselves. That means that even their direct competitors are their customers.
Meta Platforms与Cororeweave签署了一份价值210亿美元的合同,并与Nebius签订了一份价值高达270亿美元的合同。
and Meta Platforms signed a $21 billion contract with Cororeweave and has a contract with Nebius that's worth up to $27 billion.
其次,Nvidia本身与这三家公司都有直接合作。未来5年,Nvidia有义务从Cororeweave购买任何未使用的计算能力,并根据一份价值34亿美元的合同,使用Iron的基础设施来处理其内部工作负载。
此外,随着他们交付GPU,Nvidia可以购买价值高达21亿美元的Iron股票,而且他们已经分别向Corewave和Nebus投资了20亿美元。
Second, Nvidia itself is directly partnered with all three of these companies. Over the next 5 years, Nvidia is on the hook to buy any unused compute capacity from Cororeweave and use Iron's infrastructure for their own internal workloads under a $3.4 billion contract. On top of that, Nvidia can buy up to $2.1 billion worth of iron stock as they deliver GPUs, and they've already invested $2 billion each into Corewave and Nebus.
好的,那么Cororeweave、Nebius和Iron值得首先关注,因为它们预计在未来一年内将产能提高两倍。它们都与Nvidia直接合作,甚至它们的竞争对手也是它们的客户。
All right, so Cororeweave, Nebius, and Iron are worth covering first because they're expected to triple their capacity over the next year. They're all directly partnered with Nvidia, and even their competitors are their customers.
让我们从Cororeweave开始,股票代码为CRWV,因为它是三者中最大的。Cororeweave在北美和欧洲运营着51个专为AI建造的数据中心。它们拥有1.5吉瓦的活跃电力和4.2吉瓦的合同电力。
Let's start with Cororeweave, ticker symbol CRWV, since it's the biggest of the three. Cororeweave operates 51 data centers purpose-built for AI across North America and Europe. They have 1.5 gawatts of active power and 4.2 gawatt of power under contract.
当我们比较Neoclouds时,我们关心这两个数字,因为它们含义不同。活跃电力是实际流入当前运行服务器的电力,而合同电力是对未来电力的承诺,可能用于尚未建成的站点。只有活跃电力才能真正产生收入。
We care about both numbers when we compare the Neoclouds because they mean different things. Active power is the electricity actually flowing into servers that are running today, while contracted power is the promise of future electricity to a site that may not even be built yet. Only active power actually generates revenue.
Nvidia的Blackwell机架每个包含72个GPU,每个机架大约需要120千瓦的电力。这意味着Coreweave的合同容量足以支持超过3万个机架,即超过220万个Blackwell GPU。
Nvidia's Blackwell racks hold 72 GPUs each and they take around 120 kW to power. That means Coreweave has enough contracted capacity to power over 30,000 racks or more than 2.2 million Blackwell GPUs.
然后,他们出售这些GPU的访问权限,要么作为裸金属芯片,要么作为通过云控制面板管理的全栈实例,该面板允许Cororeweave启动GPU集群、添加低延迟网络和存储,并调度大型AI工作负载,而无需接触物理服务器。
Then they sell access to those GPUs either as bare metal chips or full stack instances that are managed through a cloud control pane that lets Cororeweave spin up clusters of GPUs, add in low latency networking and storage, and schedule large AI workloads all without touching the physical servers.
在最新的财报电话会议上,Coree报告本季度收入创纪录,达到26亿美元,同比增长112%。但正如我一年多来一直说的,Cororeweave的特殊之处不在于其收入增长,而在于其收入积压,刚刚达到140亿美元,同比增长246%。
On their latest earnings call, Coree reported record revenues of $2.6 billion for the quarter, which was up 112% year-over-year. But like I've been saying for over a year now, the special thing about Cororeweave isn't their revenue growth. It's their revenue backlog, which just reached $14 billion. That's up 246% year-over-year.
这一增长主要由与OpenAI、Nvidia、Microsoft和Meta Platforms等大型公司签订的多年期、数十亿美元合同推动。事实上,仅Meta一家就在三月份与Cororeweave签署了另一份价值210亿美元的交易。
That growth is mostly driven by multi-year, multi-billion dollar contracts with massive companies like OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms. In fact, Meta alone signed another $21 billion deal with Cororeweave back in March.
Cororeweave的另一个特殊之处在于它与Nvidia的特殊关系。Coreweave基本上是Nvidia最新芯片的发射台。上个季度,他们是首批验证Nvidia Vera Rubin机架的公司,包括Bluefield 4 GPU和下一代网络解决方案,这些解决方案有助于确保所有这些昂贵的GPU得到充分利用。
Another special thing about Cororeweave is their privileged relationship with Nvidia. Coreweave is basically the launchpad for Nvidia's latest chips. Last quarter, they were the first to validate Nvidia's Vera Rubin racks, including the Bluefield 4 GPUs and next generation networking solutions that help make sure that all these expensive GPUs are being fully utilized.
正如我之前所说,他们有一个正式的63亿美元合作伙伴关系,Nvidia将在2032年4月之前购买Cororeweave的任何未售出的云容量。
And like I said earlier, they have a formal $6.3 billion partnership where Nvidia will purchase any unsold cloud capacity from Cororeweave through April of 2032.
今年早些时候,Nvidia和Cororeweave还同意到2030年建设超过5吉瓦的AI工厂,足以为数百万个Nvidia GPU供电。作为这笔交易的一部分,Nvidia以每股87美元的价格向Core股票追加投资20亿美元。
这实际上高于该股目前的交易价格。所以,现在买入的人比Jensen Hong本人获得更好的价格。
Earlier this year, Nvidia and Cororeweave also agreed to build out more than 5 gawatt of AI factories by 2030, enough to power millions more Nvidia GPUs. As part of this deal, Nvidia invested another $2 billion into Core stock at $87 per share. That's actually higher than the stock trades today. So, anyone buying it now is getting a better price than Jensen Hong himself.
说到价格,有一个极其重要的数字决定了Neocloud是生存还是繁荣,那就是他们为最初建设基础设施而借入的资金所支付的价格。建设AI数据中心意味着要预先支付所有费用。GPU、机架、冷却、电力,所有这些都在开始产生收入之前数年就购买了。
Speaking of prices, there's one insanely important number that determines whether a Neocloud survives or thrives, and that's the price they pay on the money that they borrow to build their infrastructure in the first place. Building AI data centers means paying for everything upfront. the GPUs, the racks, the cooling, the power, all that gets bought years before they start making revenue.
例如,Core上个季度的资本支出为94亿美元,尽管他们只赚了26亿美元。这不是坏事。这是整个商业模式。建好了,他们就会来。但这意味着他们需要借钱来建设。
For example, Core spent $9.4 billion on capital expenditures last quarter, even though they only made $2.6 billion. That's not a bad thing. It's the entire business model. Build it and they will come. But that means they need to borrow money to build it in the first place.
Cororeweave有大约350亿美元的贷款,另有160亿美元的租赁义务用于他们不拥有的数据中心,以及55亿美元的现金。35 + 16 - 5大约是460亿美元的净债务,但他们上个季度仅利息就支付了6.4亿美元,约占其收入的25%。这对他们的利润产生了巨大影响。
Cororeweave has about $35 billion worth of loans, another 16 billion in lease obligations for the data centers they don't own, and $5.5 billion in cash. 35 + 16 - 5 is roughly $46 billion in net debt, but they paid $640 million in interest last quarter alone, which is about 25% of the revenues they brought in. That makes a huge difference to their bottom line.
Cororee本季度的营业亏损为4900万美元,但净亏损为6.26亿美元。几乎所有的差额都是利息。这就是为什么净债务和利息费用是三家公司在比较时的重要数字。
Cororee's operating losses for the quarter were $49 million, but their net loss was 626 million. Almost the entire difference is interest. That's why net debt and interest expenses are important numbers to compare across all three companies.
无论如何,对投资者来说,要点很简单。Nvidia是Cororeweave的核心基础设施供应商、其发布平台和其最后买家,这大大加强了Cororeef在Neocloud市场中的地位。
但Nvidia无法做的是降低Core的利息费用。
Either way, the takeaway for investors is pretty simple. Nvidia is Cororeweave's core infrastructure supplier, their launch platform, and their buyer of last resort, which seriously strengthens Cororeef's position in the Neocloud market. But what Nvidia can't do is lower Core's interest expenses.
现在,让我们比较Coreweave、Nebius和Iron Stock。这是一张总结我所涵盖内容的表格。请记住,这张表是我自己通过从每家公司最新财报中提取数字构建的,我尽量让每一行都尽可能公平,但三家公司有不同的财年、不同的合同期限,而且它们从年初开始就处于非常不同的起点。
因此,请将这张表视为比较这些公司的一种好方法,但不要将其视为官方审计数字。
Now, let's compare Coreweave, Nebius, and Iron Stock. Here's a table summarizing everything I've covered. Keep in mind that I built it myself by pulling numbers from each company's latest earnings, and I tried to make every row as fair as I could, but all three companies have different fiscal calendars, different contract lengths, and they're scaling from very different starting points from the beginning of the year. So, take this table as a good way to compare these companies, but not as official audited numbers.
首先,Cororeweave 的净债务远高于其他两家公司。因此,我们想用企业价值而不是市值来比较它们。当你收购一家企业时,你买下的是它的资产和债务,减去它们持有的现金。所以,企业价值是给高负债公司定价的更好方式。
由于 Cororeweave 的债务与其市值一样大,其企业价值最终是其市值的两倍。
First, Cororeweave has a lot more net debt than the other two companies. So, we want to compare them in terms of enterprise value instead of market cap. When you buy a business, you buy its assets and its debts minus whatever cash they're holding. So enterprise value is a much better way to price debt heavy companies. Since Cororeweave's debt is as big as their market cap, their enterprise value ends up being twice as big.
话虽如此,Cororeweave 在规模上是明显的领导者。他们是最大的企业,拥有最多的收入、最深的积压订单,以及目前实际运行的 1.5 吉瓦的活跃电力。但他们每赚一美元,就有四分之一直接用于支付贷款利息。
That said, Cororeweave is the clear leader in terms of scale. They're the biggest enterprise with the most revenue, the deepest backlog, and 1.5 gawatt of active power actually running today. But a quarter of every dollar they make goes right back to interest on their loans.
如果按活跃电力计算,Cororeweave 每兆瓦成本约为 6200 万美元,而 Nebius 和 Iron 则超过 3.5 亿美元。因此,Cororeweave 是最便宜的,便宜了六倍。
If you go by active power, cororeweave costs around $62 million per megawatt, while Nebius and iron are over $350 million each. So, Cororeweave is the cheapest by a factor of six.
所以,如果你是那种希望以最低执行风险投资这类股票的投资者,Cororeweave 可能是适合你的股票。他们是目前规模最大的公司,拥有最多的用于 AI 的活跃电力,而且 Nvidia 承诺购买他们到 2032 年 4 月为止无法售出的任何产能。
如果我是新投资者或接近退休,我会选择 Cororeweave。
So, if you're the kind of investor that wants exposure to this category of stocks with the lowest execution risk, Cororeweave is probably the stock for you. They're the biggest company by far with the most active power being used for AI right now, and they have Nvidia committed to buying any capacity they can't sell through April of 2032. If I was a newer investor or closer to retirement, Cororeweave is the one I'd pick.
这个频道对 $CRWV 的历次判断
Ticker Symbol: YOU 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。