CRWV 是一个看涨论点：其活跃电力超过 1GW，市值 43B 美元，短期合约定价约 40M 美元/MW，可实现快速回本，这些因素压过了对新增可转换债券和 ATM 增发选项的担忧。
逐段跳播
在今天的节目中，我真正想讲的是两家 NeoCloud 公司，Nebius 和 Core 刚刚发布了一些非常惊人的公告。
On today's episode, what I really want to cover is two NeoCloud players, Nebius and Core just reported some amazing announcements.
现在，我会在本期节目最后讲 Coreweave。也有一些看跌的因素需要考虑。
Now, I'm going to go with Cororeweave right at the end of this episode. There's also some bearish things to consider.
接下来，我想谈谈我最喜欢的股票之一。这就是 Coreweave。现在，这是我目前最喜欢的 NeoCloud 公司之一。这就是我看涨 Neo、看涨 Core 的原因，它的市值为 430 亿美元。
然而，你拥有超过 1 吉瓦的活跃电力。当你把它按年计算，并且当所有这些开始被很好地收费时，你可以用那一吉瓦赚很多收入。所以，我相当兴奋，尤其是当他们的一些长期合同开始生效时。他们将能够更好地获得其中一些定价。
Next, I want to jump into one of my favorite stocks. This is Cororeweave. Now, this is uh one of my favorite NeoCloud players right now. This is the reason I'm bullish in Neo in in Core is at a $43 billion market cap.
Yet, you have over 1 gawatt of active power. You can make a lot of revenue with that gigawatt when you kind of put it on a yearly basis and when all of that starts being charged really well.
So, I'm pretty excited, especially as some of their longer contracts are starting to pull over. They're going to be able to kind of get some of these pricings better on.
另一件事是，这是一家非常类似的公司，当他们为业务解决方案建模时。在 x 年之后，这些 GPU 基本上已经回本，之后就是赚钱了。但如果现在 GPU 小时定价不断上涨、上涨、再上涨，这里的利润率价格和边际回报将会非常惊人，尤其是对于已经拥有大量活跃电力的人来说，这正是让我对 Core 更兴奋的地方，对吧？超过一吉瓦，超过一吉瓦的活跃电力。
The other thing is this is a company that very similar when they model their solution of their business. It's after x amount of years, these GPUs already kind of pay themselves and then it's money after that.
But if now the pricing is going up and up and up in in GPU hour, the margin prices here and the margin re return is going to be amazing, especially for someone who has a lot of active power already, which is what gets me more excited about Core, right?
Over a gigawatt over a gigawatt of active power.
现在，Coreweave 今天宣布了一件重要的事，对吧？他们通常非常专注于长期合同，而长期合同往往价值更短、并非更低，显然。所以 Core 尽管他们确实宣布，他们已签署了约 3 到 6 个月的短期客户合同，定价约为每兆瓦 4000 万美元。这太疯狂了，因为现在算力几乎不到一年就能回本。
Now, Coreweave today announced something important, right? They usually focus on very much long-term contracts and long-term contracts tend to have shorter not lower value obviously.
So core though they did announce that they have signed shortdated customer contracts of approximately 3 to 6 months with pricing of approximately 40 million per megawatt. That is crazy because that's now almost a year payback on on compute.
所以如果他们能够这样做一整年，而且我相信这种供需失衡的动态至少会持续至少 2 年。对他们现在开始真正专注于短期客户合同，这让我兴奋，因为这将对它们有巨大帮助。然后一年之后，即使他们把所有成本都收回了，现在他们只是签订一份长期合同，他们也会在那部分算力上拥有极好的利润率。
所以这拥有庞大的基础设施。他们正在疯狂地建设，对我来说这让我相当相当兴奋。
So if they're able to do this for a whole year, and I do believe the dynamic of this in imbalance of supply and demand is going to continue for at least at least 2 years. For them to start now really focusing on shortdated customer contracts, it gets me excited because it is going to help them dramatically.
And then after a year, even if they if they pay everything back and now they just kind of make a long-term contract, they they'll have great margins on that compute. So this has massive infrastructure.
They're building like crazy and to me that gets me pretty pretty excited.
与此同时，我更希望他们保持在长期合同范围内，因为对我来说那是安全的打法。而且你不会因波动而波动太大。所以我不希望他们完全扩展到短期数据客户合同，即使市场会很喜欢那样。我认为应该有一个良好的中间混合。
At the same time, I am more want them to kind of stay within the long-term contract because to me that's the safe for play. Uh and you don't move too much with volatility. So I don't want them to completely expand into the short-term data customer contract even though that's what the market would love.
I think there should be a good mixture of in between.
但现在看到一些数字，他们以大约每兆瓦 4000 万美元的价格获得这些东西，在我看来极其极其看涨。我很想知道这到底是什么样的解决方案，对吧？这是基于 GB200 还是 GB300？
这是针对短期合同，还是针对像 Vera Rubin 这样即将推出的东西？我很想听到更多关于他们试图从哪里获得这类交易的明确信息。或者也许它可能是一个混合，对吧？那是另一件事。可能是一些 GB200。
可能是一些 H100。这就是为什么价格 H200，它可能是很多不同的东西。旧 GPU 和新 GPU 的混合。这就是为什么重要的是要理解，我们不能总是把所有定价和合同与其他人比较，因为合同本身涉及太多不同的东西。
But now seeing some numbers that they're getting stuff at roughly 40 million per megawatt that's extremely extremely bullish in my opinion. I would love to have known on like what kind of of of solution was this, right?
Was this on a a GB200 on a GB300? Is this for short-term contracts on something upcoming like the Vera Rubin? I would love to hear more clarity on where they're trying to getting these types of deals.
Or maybe it could be a mixture, right? It that's the other thing. Could be some GB200s. It could be some H100s. And that's why the price H200s, it could be a lot of different things.
A mixture of older GPUs and newer GPUs. And that's why it's important to understand that it's we can't always compare all pricing and contracts to everybody else because there's so many different things that go in the contract itself.
不过现在不幸的是，很多人可能会说 Jose，这看起来很棒。为什么市场在惩罚 Coreweave？不幸的是，该公司确实增加了他们正在稀释股份，而且他们还在增加一些债务。
Now unfortunately though you many people might be saying Jose that seems amazing. Why is the market punishing cororeweave? Unfortunately the company did increase that they are diluting shares and and they're also doing a few increasing debt.
先从债务说起。Core 确实宣布了约 30 亿美元的可转换优先票据。可转换优先票据的利率通常较低，低很多，这很好，这正是他们想做的。但不利的一面是，它确实会在未来带来某种形式的稀释可能。
不是必然的，但未来存在某种形式的稀释可能。为了应对这一点，公司往往会做一种叫上限看涨期权（cap call）的操作。这 30 亿美元的收益实际上最高可以增加到 35 亿美元，他们在 13 天的期限内有权将其增加约 5 亿美元。
如果看不到 35 亿美元，我会很震惊。我认为这会发生。但他们将把收益用于下文所述的上限看涨期权交易的覆盖，以及一般用途，比如购买更多 GPU。
So let's start off with the debt. So core did announce roughly 3 billion in convertible senior notes. The convertible senior notes typically have a lower a lot lower rate which is great.
It's what they're trying to do. But on the downside is it does add some form of dilution potential in the future. Not a guaranteed but some form of dilution potential in the future.
And to kind of combat that the companies tend to do something called cap calls. So the proceeds of these $3 billion which can actually go up to 3.5 billion. They have they have the ability within 13-day period to increase it by about 500 million.
I would be shocked if we don't see the 3.5 billion. I think that's going to happen. But they are going to use the proceeds for the covering entering of cap call transaction described below and also for general purposes like buying more GPUs.
这就是我们现在看到的情况。如果我们处在一个能拿到 GPU、并且能在一两年内回本的市场里，在我看来这就完全说得通。显然，市场不喜欢这样。所以市场正是在这一点上予以惩罚。
So this is what we're seeing right now. If we're in a market where you can get GPUs and you can kind of pay them back within a year or two, it makes perfect perfect sense in my opinion.
Obviously, the market hates that. So that's where the market is punishing.
我们看到的第二件事是，Core 宣布了一项按市价发行（at the market offering）。他们宣布设立一项按市价发行计划，根据该计划，它可能发行、如适用则出售最多 3500 万股。
按当前价格计算，我想大约是 20 亿美元。我忘了具体数字。设立这项 ATM 发行是为了提供持续的融资灵活性，并支持 Core 将其企业信用状况向投资级迁移的目标。Core 没有义务在 ATM 计划下出售任何股份，并将根据市场状况、其资本结构目标以及适用的限制来决定是否出售以及何时出售。
The second thing the second thing that we did see is core did announce at the market offering. They announced the establishment of an at the market offering program under which it may offer if applicable sell up to 35 million shares.
At the current price, I think it was about $2 billion. I forget the number. The ATM offering is being established to provide ongoing financing flexibility and to support Corw's objective of migrating its enterprise credit profile towards investment grade.
Cor has no obligations to sell any shares under the ATM program and will determine whether and when to do so based on market conditions, its capital structure objectives, and applicable restrictions.
所以看起来更像是他们只是把这个选项摆出来，这是他们现在并没有完全出售的东西，但他们现在有了可以出售最多 3500 万股的选项。他们给出的理由是，仅仅拥有这个选项就能提升他们在金融领域的灵活性，而且实际上有助于他们的信用状况。
So it does seem like more they're just giving in the option and and this is something they're not completely selling it right now but they have the option now to be able to sell up to 35 million shares.
The reason they're saying is just by having this option it does improve their flexibility in the financial world and it actually helps them in their form of credit profile.
所以我在想，我确实相信 Core 的领导层有点倾向于做财务上精明的事情。我在想这是否就是其中之一。我不知道我们最终会出售这些股份，还是会完全稀释，但至少这个选项打开了获得一些灵活性和一些信用改善的机会。
So I wonder right I do believe Coref does have a leadership that is a little bit that tries to do things financial savvy. I wonder if this is just one of those. I don't know if we're going to be selling the shares or we're going to completely diluting, but at least this option opens up the opportunity for some flexibility and some credit improvement.
然而，市场不喜欢这样，而且理当如此，对吧？你不会喜欢这笔债务。你不会喜欢按市价发行带来的潜在稀释，但对我来说，这完全可以理解，尤其是如果你现在处在一个大约一年左右就能回本的时期。
Yet, the market doesn't like it and and rightfully so, right? You're not going to like the debt. You're not going to like the potential dilution at the market offering, but to me, it's completely understandable, especially especially if you have a period right now where you can pay back things in about a year or so.
现在，有些人可能会想，Jose，如果他们能在一年内回本，为什么不直接做传统债务呢？我其实认为这也是个很好的问题。那些一年回本的通常是短期合同，对吧？而且我确实相信，即使他们认为自己能拿到，如果拿不到，风险仍然很大，对吧？
所以，我认为他们会做短期合同和长期合同的混合。为此，我认为更稳妥的路线，更稳妥的路线是做这类发行，比如可转换优先票据，而不是像过去那样直接贷款。我很确定未来我们也会看到他们这么做，这完全可以理解。
Now, some people might be wondering, Jose, why are they not just doing traditional debt if you're able to pay back within a year? I actually think that also is a great question to ask.
Those one-year paybacks are usually for short-term contracts, right? And I do believe even if they think they can get it, there's still a lot of risk if they don't do it, right?
So, I think they're going to stri do a mixture of short-term contracts and long-term contracts. And for that, I think the safer route, the safer route is to kind of do these these types of offerings like the convertible senior notes opposed to just direct direct loans like they were in the past.
I'm pretty sure in the future we're going to see them do that as well and it's completely understandable.
但对我来说，430 亿美元的市值，而且你坐拥超过 1 吉瓦的数据中心，我对这家公司相当兴奋。
But for me, a market cap of $43 billion and you're sitting with over a gigawatt of data centers, I am pretty excited about this company.
这个频道对 $CRWV 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。