$CRWY

CRWY的估值因缺乏依据的AI/SaaS担忧而承压,但医院端的高粘性支撑其未来被收购的可能性。

看涨
《UK stocks are dirt cheap. Why won't the boards act? $ZIG $CRW | Undervalued-Shares》
Yet Another Value Podcast发布 2026-09-14 · 7 段内容
48:31/ 打开原视频

逐段跳播

7 段内容
48:3155:28

让我们转向Craneware,然后我们就可以大致收尾了。但我很想简要讨论一下Craneware,因为我认为它有很多我们在这个过程里一直谈到的有趣之处。所以我会让你来描述Craneware,但对我来说真正有趣的一点是,Craneware是一家在2025年7月收到Bane大幅溢价收购要约的公司。

你知道,这只股票,他们,Bane出价每股2,600美元。快进到今天,这只股票已经跌跌撞撞,交易价约为每股1,300美元。我说的是美元、英镑,随便吧。但你可以给出概述。不过我认为这是一个非常有趣的例子,一个非常有趣的例子:一家曾收到收购要约、也许跌跌撞撞的公司。

整体估值相当便宜,但它有一些SAS恐惧。所以我觉得这是一个值得快速讨论的有趣标的。

Let's turn it let's turn to uh craneware and then we can kind of wrap this up. But I'd love to briefly discuss craneware because I think it's got a lot of interesting things that we've talked about throughout this process.

So I'll let you describe Craneware, but the really interesting thing to me here is Craneware is a company that got a offer at a big premium from Bane in July of 2025. You know, the stock uh they offered Bane offered $2,600 per share.

And fast forward to today and this stock has stumbled and it's trading at about $1,300 per share. I I say dollars, pounds, whatever. But uh you can give the overview. But I think that's a really interesting it's a really interesting example of you a company that had a bid, maybe stumbled.

The valuation is quite cheap on a whole, but it's got some SAS fear. So I I thought it was just an interesting one to discuss real quick.

是的。这是一门迷人的生意,因为它是一家总部位于苏格兰爱丁堡的英国公司,但95%的收入来自美国。所以,你不得不问,这真的是一家英国公司,还是一家恰好在一个英国市场上市、总部设在英国的美国公司?

他们成立于90年代末,为美国医院生产软件。他们帮助医院在向患者提供医疗服务方面变得更高效,同时也在运营方面更高效。我不是那类软件的专家,但他们现在已安装在美国40%的医院中,在这个领域遥遥领先的第一名,这说明他们肯定做对了一些事情。

公司发布了一些预测或测算,说基本上他们长期内可以通过在多年间向同样的医院销售更多软件、提供这些医院需要的更多解决方案,同时也向药房销售,并夺取更多市场份额,使收入增长五到八倍。

他们基本上在非常雄心勃勃地瞄准一个目标,基本上就是说美国的每一家医院都需要拥有我们的软件,而他们现在已覆盖40%。所以,这是一个至少值得认真对待、值得称赞其雄心壮志的目标。

Yeah. And it's a fascinating business because it's a a UK company based in Edinburgh, Scotland, but 95% of its revenue comes from the United States. So, you have to ask, is this really a UK company or is this an American company that just happens to be listed and and based out of a, you know, a UK um on a UK market?

It they were set up in the late '9s and they're producing software for United US hospitals. They're helping make hospitals be more efficient when it comes to delivering healthcare to their patients, but also in terms of their operation.

And I'm not an expert for that sort of software, but they're now installed in 40% of the United States hospitals, number one leader in this field by far, which goes to show they're certainly doing something right.

The company has put out some projections or calculations saying that basically they could grow by a multiple five or eight times uh their revenue over a number of years long term by you know selling more software to the same hospitals there more solutions that these hospitals need but also selling it toarmacies and by capturing more market share and they're basically aiming very ambitiously to basically say every single hospital in the United States need to have our our software and they're in 40% now.

So, it's a it's a a target that's to be at least taken serious and commended be or being ambitious.

一年前,正如你所说,Bane出价26,其实他们并没有真正出价。他们公开表示正在考虑以26.5的价格提出要约。而董事会和其他各方关键人物基本上都大声说这太低了。他们当时可能是对的。

股价我想一度涨到22或23英镑,该要约被拒绝,理由是根本上低估了这项业务及其前景,随后股价跌到12。我们目前交易在13.5。所以它基本上在一年内腰斩了,而其中的原因显然是SAS末日,即对AI的恐惧,你知道,有人会用vibe code写出一款软件来取代Craneware所做的事情。

And a year ago, Bane, as you said, offered 26 and a they didn't really offer. They they went public with we're considering an offer at 26 and a half. And the board and a variety of other key players basically screamed this is way too low.

And they're probably they were probably right at the time. The share I think went up as far as 22 or 23 pounds and the offer was turned down as fundamentally undervaluing the business and its prospects and it then fell to 12.

We're currently trading at 13 and a half. So it's basically halfed in a year and what's played into that is obviously the SAS apocalypse uh the fear that AI and you know someone will vibe code um a software that will replace what Craneware does.

但我认为市场现在已经平静下来,并认识到,我的意思是,如果你有一个特定的软件客户,而这个客户很可能极其抗拒更换一个已经存在多年甚至数十年、员工已经受过培训的现有系统,那很可能就是美国医院,我的意思是总体上还有政府,那么很可能只是时间问题,会有另一个收购要约出现。问题再次是,董事会要做什么来最大化它?

But I think the market has now calmed down and has recognized that I mean if you have one particular client for software that is probably extremely resistant to changing an existing system that has been in place for years or decades and which staff has been trained on is probably US hospitals and I mean government in general and it's probably a matter of time before another bid comes in.

Again the question is what does the board do to maximize it?

不,我认为这说得完全对。我的意思是,这一个之所以让我觉得有趣,是因为去年有那个收购要约,对吧?那远高于现价。但这也印证了我的先验判断:你拿到溢价收购要约,就接受它,因为我认为没有人预见到这场SAS末日会到来。

然后另一个真正有趣的事情是,你知道,英国公司,我讨厌这种交易更新,他们给你一点信息,但不多。你知道,他们在7月出来说,嘿,我们的FY26盈利大概会和FY25差不多,如果我记得没错的话。

他们说,我们在季度末有一些递延,我想他们的财年是7月或6月结束。所以FY26已经结束了。它在夏天结束。FY27是我们现在所处的财年。他们说,嘿,我们有一些递延,把所有事情从26推到了27。

所以一方面,你看着说,嘿,FY27会很棒。但另一方面,我的意思是,每一家真正被AI打击的SAS公司,他们都说,哦,我们的客户只是稍微推迟了一下。你开始有点怀疑,嘿,这是一个AI末日标的吗?

他们真的受到冲击了吗?这是一个贯穿始终的迷人例子:大幅溢价收购要约。它的交易价格远低于任何上市的美国SAS公司大体上的交易价格。我的意思是,我相信你能找到一两个例子,但他们也有SAS末日的恐惧,这只是所有这些不同动态之间有趣的拉锯。

No, I I think that's spot on. I mean, this one it just jumped at me as interesting because you had the bid last year, right? That is way above. But then it also plays into my my priors of you get the premium bid, you take it because I don't think anyone saw this SAS apocalypse coming.

And then the other really interesting thing is, you know, UK companies, I hate this trading update where they give you a little color but not a ton. you know, they come out in July and they say, "Hey, our two FY26 earnings are going to be kind of the same as FY25 if I'm remembering correctly."

And they say, "We had some deferrals late in the quarter that and I think they run on a July or June year." So the the FY26 is over. It ended the summer. FY27 is we're in it right now.

They say, "Hey, we had some deferrals that pushed everything back from 26 to 27." So on the one hand, you look and say, "Hey, FY27 is going to be great." But on the other hand, I mean, every SAS company that is actually getting killed by AI, they all say, "Oh, our customers are just holding off a little bit."

And you kind of start to wonder, "Hey, is this an AI apocalypse name?" Like, are they actually getting impacted? And it's just a a fascinating example across the board of the big premium offer.

This trades way cheaper than any listed US SAS company for the most part trades for. I mean, I'm sure you can find one or two examples, but they've also got the SAS apocalypse fears and it's just an interesting push and pull of all these different dynamics.

是的。现在,想象一下如果有人明天出价比如说20。我认为很多人会心动。

Yeah. Now, imagine if someone offered say 20 tomorrow. I think a lot of people would be tempted.

现在,一家拥有大量美国收入的Craneware。有一个我们没谈到的选项,我只是想提出来。也许这会是未完待续。你知道,Craneware大概应该看看自己的股价说,嘿,如果伦敦市场已经抛弃了我们,也许我们该去美国上市。

这是这家公司的一个选项,你曾给它写过一封信,我认为这个选项对他们存在,而我不会推荐其他公司这么做。

Now, a craneware that has a lot of US revenue. Like one option we didn't talk about that I just wanted to float out there. Maybe this will be to be continued. You know, like a craneware should probably look at their stock price say, "Hey, if the London market has deserted us, maybe we belong on a US listing."

Like that's one one other option for the company that you've you know published a letter to that I think exists for them that I wouldn't recommend for other ones.

这个频道对 $CRWY 的历次判断

Yet Another Value Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-14看涨本条
让我们转向Craneware,然后我们就可以大致收尾了。但我很想简要讨论一下Craneware,因为我认为它有很多我们在这个过程里一直谈到的有趣之处。所以我会让你来描述Craneware,但对我来说真正有趣的一点是,Craneware是一家在2025年7月收到Bane大幅溢价收购要约的公司。你知道,这只股票,他们,Bane出价每股2,600美元。快进到今天,这只股票已经跌跌撞撞,交易价约为每股1,300美元。我说的是美元、英镑,随便吧。但你可以给出概述。不过我认为这是一个非常有趣的例子,一个非常有趣的例子:一家曾收到收购要约、也许跌跌撞撞的公司。整体估值相当便宜,但它有一些SAS恐惧。所以我觉得这是一个值得快速讨论的有趣标的。
看完整历史 ›
美股听风