$CVS

CVS的上涨在中期内可能失败,预计在接近101见顶后跌至约90.16。

看跌他说的是几个月内
How to Read a Late-Cycle Rally | Shorting Opportunity in CVS?
Steve Miller发布 2026-09-04 · 9 段内容
00:09/ 打开原视频

逐段跳播

9 段内容
0:094:34

接下来我们看CVS,这是最后一个。我认为这张图很有意思,值得密切关注。CVS预计从10.5跌至12.7。这是第32条K线。多年来这一直很明显。一张非常好的图。

Let's move on to CVS, this is the last one. I think this is an interesting graph that deserves close attention. CVS has an expected decline from 10.5 to 12.7. This is tape 32. It's been obvious for years. A really good graph.

记住,在周期接近尾声时,通常会发生的情况是你会看到一些抛售,对吧?你在这里可以看到。哎呀,我们进入了一个箱体。这里,不是吗?看看后期的高点。你看到了吗?我不知道。我只是想强调这一点。

这很重要。看看延迟的上涨。看看相对强弱指数(RS)的角度。这里下方。这里下方。这里完全平坦。我本来不打算在那里做任何操作,但我看到了最后的下跌走势。后来的高点极其有趣。那里小幅上涨,而RS指标在底部保持稳定。

这是一个真正经典的走势。高点在这里,RS在底部保持稳定。看看发生了什么。对底部的测试,然后它被击穿了。这里,RS指标有轻微的上扬,所以这不是一个理想的设置。但当你看到RS指标坚定向下并伴随反弹,就像它再次出现的那样,我认为这为类似这里发生的情况奠定了基础。

Remember, towards the end of the cycle, what usually happens is that you see some selling, right? You can see that here. Oops, we're entering a box here. here. Here, isn't it? Look at the late highs. Do you see that? I don't know . I just want to highlight this. This is important. Look at the delayed rise. Look at the angle of the Relative Strength Index (RS). Here below. Here below. It's completely flat here. I wasn't going to do anything there, but I saw a final downward movement. The later elevations are extremely interesting. A slight rise there with the RS indicator remaining stable at the bottom. This is a truly classic move. The elevation is here, with RS remaining stable at the bottom. Look what happened. A test of the bottoms, then he was beaten. Here, there was a slight upward swing in the RS indicator, so it's not an ideal setup. But when you see the RS indicator firmly down with a bounce, as it did again, I think that sets the stage for something similar to what happened here.

我并不是说它会下跌同样的幅度,因为现在的整体周期比当时更积极,不是吗?很明显,过去的情况比现在更加看跌,但RS指标处于低位。你得到一次反弹。更高的概率,以及我们这么说的原因是当前RS指标的角度以及周期与在理想日期附近形成的底部的一致性,对吧?

这两个因素让我相信,这次上涨在中期内失败的可能性更大,你同意吗?

I'm not saying it should fall by the same amount because the overall cycle is now more positive than it was here, is it? It is clear that the situation was much more bearish in the past compared to now, but the RS index is low. You get a jump. The higher probability, and the reason we say this is the current angle of the RS indicator and the consistency of the cycles with the bottoms that formed near their ideal dates, right? These two factors lead me to believe that this rise has a greater likelihood of failing in the medium term, do n't you agree?

大约在99.28到101之间。我目前并不真的预期它会突破101。它必须保持在这个水平下方,然后最终跌向90.16。大约在那个位置,对吧?最后一次下跌,对吧?从10.5到大约12.7。

Around 99.28 to 101. I don't really expect it to go above 101 at the moment . It must remain below this level and then give a final drop towards 90.16. Somewhere around that , right? One final drop, right ? From 10.5 to about 12.7.

短期内,这真的很有趣,不是吗?看看盈利导致的低价缺口。这就是那次下跌。在它下方有任何实际的卖出吗?没有。看看这些关键水平下方的物体大小。非常小。非常小,没有后续。想象一下在这种普遍感觉下会发生什么。

让它们更少。让它们更少。让它们更少。在每次上涨时做空。在每次上涨时做空。在每次上涨时做空。交易员做这个会得到报酬吗?不,不是那样的。最终结果是什么?一点压力,不是吗?

In the short term, it's really interesting, isn't it? Watch that low price gap resulting from the profits. This is that drop. Was there any actual sale underneath it? no. Look at the size of objects below these key levels. Very small. Very small with no follow-up. Just imagine what happens in relation to this general feeling. Make them fewer. Make them fewer. Make them fewer. Sell ​​short at every rise. Sell ​​short at every rise . Sell ​​short at every rise. Do traders get paid to do this? No , it's not like that. And what is the end result? A little pressure, isn't it?

所以,看看那次急剧下跌。那就是原因,不是吗?他们都错了。他们都被抓住了。成交量比我们之前看到的略高,不是吗?当我们目睹转变的时候。所以,这也很有趣。

So, look at that sharp drop. That 's what caused it, is n't it? They were all wrong. They were all arrested. A slightly higher trading volume than we were seeing, wasn't it? While we were witnessing the transformation. So, this is also interesting.

所以,正如我们之前所说,大约9943到10150是我预期它会失败的区域。这是盈利公告日次日形成的高点。所以,寻找它的失败并开始回落。目前,相对强弱指数为正,“安全”K线为中性。所以,你处于一个轻微的上升趋势中。

So, as we said before, approximately 9943 to 10150 is the area where I expect it to fail. This is the peak that formed the day after the earnings announcement day. So, look for its failures and start to backtrack. Currently, the Relative Strength Index is positive, and the "Safe" bars are neutral. So, you are in a slight upward trend.

我会等到做空的设置再次就绪。他还没有做到。所以,我想看到它再涨一点,然后停止并开始弯曲。如果你看到它开始下垂,像往常一样进行结构性止损。结构性止损单是基础。始终将你的止损设置在价格不应超过的区域。

我喜欢50水平的原因是因为它也位于旧的枢轴点。所以,这对我来说似乎非常合乎逻辑。我真的很想瞄准低于那个的缺口。所以,我想尽可能最好地把握入场时机,一旦那个高点形成并且它开始回撤至10150区域附近,好吗?

I will wait until the setup for short selling is in place again. He hasn't done that yet. So, I want to see this rise a little, then stop and start to curve. If you see it starting to sag, stop loss of structure as usual. Structural stop-loss orders are the foundation. Always keep your stop loss in an area that the price should not exceed. The reason I like level 50 is that it is also located at the old pivot point . So, this seems very logical to me. I really want to target the gap that's below that . So, I want to try to time my entry as best as possible, once that peak is formed and it starts to pull back against the 10150 area, okay?

我希望这是对CVS股票更详细的观察。在这张34根K线图上,下一个日线低点大约在10:02出现。

I hope this is a more detailed look at CVS stock. The next daily low on this 34-candle chart is due around 10:02.

他说在等什么

价格相对于101水平的走势
未能突破101并开始回落
中期日线价格图
若未能突破则支持看跌论点;若突破101则削弱该论点

这个频道对 $CVS 的历次判断

Steve Miller 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-04看跌本条
接下来我们看CVS,这是最后一个。我认为这张图很有意思,值得密切关注。
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