达美航空显示出积极迹象,现金流上升,估值便宜,交易价格比行业平均水平低50%。
逐段跳播
我们实际上有一只我自己曾经持有过的股票,大约在疫情开始之前的那段时间,但我不再把它放在我的投资组合中。那就是达美航空的股票,股票代码为(DAL),伯克希尔·哈撒韦已向其注资近10亿美元,本季度大幅增持了44%的股份。
We actually have a stock that I myself owned , roughly in the period before the start of the pandemic , but I no longer keep it in my portfolio. It is Delta Air Lines stock , ticker symbol (DAL), into which Berkshire Hathaway has injected nearly $1 billion, significantly increasing its stake by 44% during the quarter.
这只股票也让我有点惊讶,因为正如你可能记得的,这实际上是巴菲特在他那个时代几乎完全放弃的行业。事实上,你可能还记得,在2020年春季疫情崩盘期间,巴菲特著名地且出人意料地抛售了伯克希尔持有的所有航空股。
This stock surprised me a little too, because it is actually a sector that Buffett, as you may recall, had almost completely abandoned when he was around. In fact, you may recall that in the spring of 2020 during the pandemic crash, Buffett famously and unexpectedly divested all of Berkshire's airline stock holdings .
然而,今天回顾过去,我们发现伯克希尔的新任CEO格雷格·阿贝尔一直在大力扭转这一决定,因为他已经重新开始投资于该行业。
However , looking back today, we find that Berkshire's new CEO, Greg Abel, has been strongly reversing that decision, as he has returned to investing in it again.
事实上,我相信他们现在拥有达美航空整个公司约10%的股份。坦率地说,这一举动对他们来说看起来相当不错,因为达美航空终于开始显示出令人鼓舞的迹象,现金流上升,估值仍然非常便宜。
In fact, I believe they now own approximately 10% of the total company in " Delta". Frankly, this move looks rather good on their part, as Delta is finally starting to show promising signs with rising cash flow and a valuation that is still very cheap.
这是他们商业模式结构性变革的结果,称为“升级”,达美航空没有参与价格战来销售廉价的经济舱座位,而是完全重新定位,瞄准那些为高级客舱、忠诚度福利和联名信用卡支付更多费用的高利润富裕旅客。
This is the result of a structural change in their business model called "leveling up," where instead of engaging in price wars to sell cheap economy seats , Delta has completely repositioned itself to target affluent travelers with higher profit margins who pay more for premium cabins, loyalty benefits, and co-branded credit cards.
事实上,上一季度传统经济舱座位占其总营业收入的比例略低于35%。
In fact, traditional economy class seats accounted for slightly less than 35% of their total operating revenue last quarter.
他们的忠诚度计划确实已成为主要的利润驱动力。例如,他们与Amex合作的信用卡在上季度创造了24亿美元的收入,同比增长16%。
Their loyalty program has truly become their main profit driver. For example, their credit card with Amex generated $2.4 billion in the last quarter, a 16% increase over the previous year.
商务旅行也在复苏,航空、汽车和银行领域的企业销售以两位数的速度增长。展望未来,分析师预计未来几年他们的销售额和利润都将增加数十亿美元。
Business travel is also rebounding, with corporate sales jumping at double-digit rates in the aviation, automotive, and banking sectors. Looking ahead, analysts expect both their sales and profits to rise by billions of dollars in the coming years.
结果是,尽管该股在疫情后大幅回升,但从盈利角度看,估值仍然非常便宜。
The result is that although the stock has recovered significantly after the pandemic, the valuation is still very cheap from an earnings perspective.
该股的交易价格比行业平均水平低约50%。目前,它距离谷歌这样的股票的质量还有很大差距,但随着时间的推移,它似乎正在恢复一些昔日的光彩,这就是为什么我会把它排在谷歌之后,位列第三。
The stock is trading at about 50% below the sector average. Right now, it's still far from the quality of a stock like Google, but over time it seems to be regaining some of its former glory, and that's why I'll put it third below Google in our rankings.
这个频道对 $DAL 的历次判断
Ale's World of Stocks 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。