DASH 基本面(营收增长、ROIC)强劲,但估值仅处于合理水平,尚未上调至买入。
逐段跳播
尤其是 DoorDash,正在凤凰城以惊人的速度扩张其自配送机器人,它称之为 DoorDash Dot。目前已有数万名顾客通过这款自动驾驶机器人接收订单。
DoorDash, in particular, is expanding its self-delivery robot , which it calls the DoorDash Dot, at a remarkable pace in Phoenix. There are tens of thousands of customers who are now receiving their orders via this self-driving robot.
那么,这项技术以及所有与“DoorDash”结合在一起的东西,是否让该公司的股票成为一个好的买入机会?我想看看该公司的长期表现,并将其与估值进行比较,同时考虑机器人互联带来的未来收益,以便在本视频中做出这一决定。
Now, does this technology and everything that is combined with " Dur Dash" make the company's stock a good buying opportunity? I want to take a look at the company's long-term performance and compare it to its valuation, taking into account the future benefit of robot connectivity to make this decision in this video.
正如你在这里看到的,DoorDash 过去十二个月的总收入在 2021 年约为 25 亿,而在最近一个十二个月期间已大幅跃升至 160 亿。
As you can see here, DoorDash's total revenue over the past twelve months was around 2.5 billion in 2021, and has jumped hugely to 16 billion over the last twelve-month period.
即使我们排除近期的收购及其对整体收入的积极影响,“DoorDash”以及该行业整体的其他外卖配送网络仍在持续增长。
Even if we exclude recent acquisitions and their positive impact on overall revenue , "Dash Door" and other food delivery networks in the sector as a whole have continued to grow.
你可能会认为这些费用太高,如果这项业务必须收取 50% 的费用,就无法赚取可观的利润。但从另一个角度来看,这似乎更合乎逻辑。
You might think that these fees are too high and that this business cannot make significant profits if it has to charge 50% fees. But when viewed from a different perspective, it seems more logical.
在这种背景下,这似乎完全合乎逻辑。这是客户提供的一项极好的、卓越的价值,你可以通过这些网络的增长看到这一点。DoorDash 利用其更大的规模来改善单位经济效益,其营业利润率提升至 5.5%。
In this context, it seems perfectly logical. It's a great and excellent value that the client offers, and you can see that through the growth of these networks. DoorDash leveraged its larger scale to improve unit economics, and its operating profit margin improved to 5.5%.
DoorDash 这种商业模式的好处之一是,它不拥有司机用于配送的任何车辆。是司机自己把这些车辆带入网络,而 DoorDash 则从司机提供的这些资产中受益。对 DoorDash 来说,这是一种有利可图的商业模式。
One of the benefits of this business model at Dor Dash is that it does not own any of the vehicles used by the drivers for deliveries. The drivers are the ones who bring these vehicles to the network, and Dash Dor benefits from those assets that the drivers provide.
This is a profitable business model for DoorDash.
对 DoorDash 来说,困难的部分是说服商家加入该平台。商家对加入 DoorDash 平台犹豫不决是可以理解的,因为他们为了加入并获得更大的客户群,放弃了对自身客户关系的一部分控制权。
The difficult part for Dash is convincing traders to join the platform. It is understandable that merchants are hesitant to join the DoorDash platform because they are giving up some control over their relationships with customers in exchange for joining and accessing a larger customer base.
我在上一节提到的这种轻资产模式,将公司的投入资本回报率提升至 6.4%,而 2023 年该指标为负 20%。
This asset-light model I mentioned in the previous section boosted the company's return on invested capital to 6.4% after it was negative at 20% in 2023.
由于它不需要对平台进行大量再投资,我认为该公司有很大潜力实现高投入资本回报率。该公司投资的领域之一是全球技术基础设施的统一,这得益于它收购了国际市场上一家类似公司。此外,如前所述,它正在投资自动驾驶机器人配送,这可能是一项资本密集型的事业。
但他们正以审慎的步伐推进,只有在他们认为在提供该服务的特定城市中这是积极且有利可图的发展时,才会进行扩张。
Since it does not need to reinvest much in the platform, I believe the company has great potential to achieve a high return on invested capital. One of the areas in which the company invests is the unification of the technological infrastructure globally, given its acquisition of some similar companies in international markets.
In addition, as mentioned, it is investing in self-driving robot delivery, which may be an intensive capital endeavor . But they are doing so in measured steps, and will only expand if they see it as a positive and profitable development in the specific cities where they offer this service.
估值也很有吸引力。DoorDash 股票的远期市盈率为 23.8,我认为对于一家具有这些特征和如此大上涨潜力的公司来说,这是一个有吸引力的估值。
The rating is also attractive. Dordash shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.8, which I think is an attractive valuation for a company with these characteristics and this much upside potential.
现在,当我用我的现金流折现模型评估该公司时,我看到的不是一只被低估的股票,而是一只估值处于合理价值的股票。我计算出的合理价值为 185,而当前市场价格为 183,两者仅相差 4%,这在我的安全边际之内。
Now, when I evaluate the company using my discounted cash flow model, I don't see an undervalued stock , but rather a stock valued at its fair value. I calculated a fair value of 185 compared to the current market price of 183, which is only a 4% difference, and this is within my margin of safety .
我上一次评估这项业务是在 8 月 7 日,当时在我看来它并不是一个买入机会。
I last evaluated this business on August 7, and it did not appear to me to be a buying opportunity.
在过去一个月里,DoorDash 股价下跌了超过 13%。因此,自上次评估该公司以来,风险回报比有所改善,但还不足以证明上调评级是合理的。它正接近这一点。它正在取得巨大进展,但在我将 DoorDash 股票上调为买入评级之前,我希望看到更多的业绩改善或更大的市场价格下跌。
During the past month, DoorDash stock has fallen by more than 13% . Therefore, the risk- reward ratio has improved since the last time I evaluated the company, but not enough to justify upgrading the recommendation.
It's getting close to that. It is making great progress, but I would like to see more performance improvement or more market price decline before I upgrade DoorDash stock to a buy recommendation.
这个频道对 $DASH 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。