戴尔的估值相对于其低利润的现实而言被高估；预计估值倍数将收缩，股价将下跌。
逐段跳播
戴尔不那么耀眼，因为它不制造芯片或人工智能模型，但它们为这一切提供基础设施，即数据中心。所以，它不是纯正的投资标的，因为其一半收入来自传统的个人电脑业务，至少在过去一年是这样。
但现在情况略有转变，基础设施部分业务实际上已增长到60%，主要得益于该部门70%的同比增长。
Dell is less shiny since it doesn't build the chips or the AI models, but they do provide the infrastructure for it all, the data centers. So, it's not a pure play because half of their revenues comes from this legacy PC segment or at least that was the case in the past year. But now it has shifted slightly and the infrastructure part of the business has actually grown to 60% primarily driven by 70% revenue growth in that segment year-over-year.
正如你提到的，这项业务有两个部分。你有传统的PC业务，然后你有基础设施业务。PC业务相当成熟，而且商品化，利润率低，大约在6%到7%。我推荐戴尔股票的原因是，他们开始涉足这些AI数据中心合同。
这些合同从2024年上半年的基本为零，到全年指引约150亿美元，背后还有140亿美元的积压订单。即使在当时，那个指引看起来也相当保守。所以投资逻辑是，你可以以当时我认为是12倍市盈率的价格买入一家公司，通过股息和回购支付高收益率，并且它可能在接下来的几个月里获得数百亿美元的数据中心合同，而基本上这就是已经发生的情况。
So as you mentioned there are two parts of this business. You have the legacy PC business and then you have the infrastructure business. And the PC business is quite mature and also commoditized with, you know, low margins of about 6 to 7%. And the reason I pitch the Dell stock was because they started to get into these AI data center contracts. And those contracts went from essentially zero in the first half of 2024 to about $15 billion guided for the year with another $14 billion of backlog behind it. And that guidance looked quite conservative even back then. So the investment case was you could buy a company for I think back then it was 12 times earnings that pays a high yield through dividends and buybacks and it might receive tens of billions of dollars in data center contracts for the months to come and that's essentially what has played out.
我们没有买入的原因是，这些数据中心合同的利润率只有低至中个位数。所以虽然量很大，并且会通过一些运营杠杆推动利润，但影响不会很大，最重要的是，我认为它不会持续。我相信至少在那一点上我们是对的。
我的意思是，毛利率从2020年的28%持续下降到今天的19%。我们说的不是净利率，这是毛利率。
So the reason we didn't buy was that these data center contracts they come at low to mid single digit margins. So while volume is massive and will still drive profits through some operating leverage, the impact wouldn't be massive and most importantly I just didn't think it would be sustainable. And I believe at least on that part we are right about it. I mean the gross margin continuously declined from 28% in 2020 to just 19% today. And we're not talking about the net margins. This is gross margins.
我想说我们误判了市场。我们认为鉴于利润率前景，市场不会太兴奋，但显然在更广泛的AI狂热中，这并不那么重要。所以，正如你所说，巨大的量和运营费用杠杆仍然导致每股收益和利润大幅增长。
这足以让市场今天给戴尔比一年前高得多的倍数。所以当前远期市盈率是22倍，而过去8年的平均是8.5倍。所以历史倍数与今天之间存在相当大的差距。
I would say we misjudged the market though. We thought the market wouldn't be too excited about that given the margin outlook, but apparently in the broader AI mania, that just doesn't matter all that much. And so, as you said, the the sheer scale of the volume and and operating expense leverage still cause earnings per share and profits to grow substantially. And that is enough for the market today to assign a much higher multiple to Dell than just a year ago. So the current forward PE is 22 times earnings and the average of the last 8 years is 8 and a half times. So pretty wide gap in that historical multiple versus today.
在最近的一次财报电话会议中，管理层实际上说AI服务器的营业利润率是中个位数，这接近你去年在模型中使用的假设，Daniel。所以我怀疑一旦大规模数据中心建设结束，戴尔将面临困难，而市场真正做的是非常有前瞻性。
所以只要新数据中心建设速度放缓，市场倍数可能会回归历史水平，作为背景，其当前市盈率是30倍，而过去10年的中位数也只是10倍。所以，我不禁认为我们会看到它的倍数收缩并迟早回归历史水平，也许更早。
它不可能持续一段时间，但我当然也不愿意押注于此。
And so in one of the latest earnings calls, management actually said that the AI servers have mid singledigit operating margins, which is close to the assumptions you actually used in your model last year, Daniel. So I I suspect Dell will have a hard time once we're on the other side of the massive data center builds and really what the market is doing is is being very forwardlooking. So all it takes is the pace of new data center construction to slow down and the market multiple will probably revert back toward its historical levels which for context its current PE is 30 times and so the median of the last 10 years again is just 10 times. So, I can't help but think that we'll see his multiple contract and revert towards historical levels sooner or later and maybe perhaps sooner. It's not possible that it will go on for a while, but I certainly wouldn't like to bet on it either.
在这种情况下，在我看来，整个行业确实注定处于低利润率的位置，被夹在像英伟达这样的公司和所有数据中心客户之间，这些客户在某种程度上也是超大规模云服务商。
And in this case, it really does seem to me that the industry overall is sort of damned to be in the low margin position squeezed between companies like Nvidia and then all the data center clients which to some extent are also the hyperscalers.
我们可能看到的下行风险，当然也可能在像戴尔这样的公司中看到上行空间，或者实际上我们接下来要讨论的公司，即Comfort Systems。
what we could see to the downside then we can certainly also see to the upside in companies like Dell or actually the next company that we'll talk about which is Comfort Systems.
有点好笑的是，戴尔和Comfort Systems，可能戴尔更是如此，它们都是相当无聊的推介。我仍然记得我们坐在一起讨论戴尔，想着天哪，这是我们看过的公司中最不令人兴奋的公司之一，而现在这些公司却完全碾压了市场。
And it's kind of funny because both Dell and also Comfort Systems probably even more Dell they were pretty boring pitches. I still remember us sitting and discussing Dell and thinking gosh this is one of the least inspiring companies that we have yet looked at and now those are the companies that just completely crushed it.
对于像戴尔这样的公司，相当确定它最终会回到较低的倍数和价格。
And for a company like Dell, quite sure it will return to lower multiples and prices eventually.
这个频道对 $DELL 的历次判断
The Intrinsic Value Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。