长期看好戴尔（Dell），但短期因市场情绪紧张及需维持涨幅而保持谨慎。
逐段跳播
让我们关注戴尔的[音乐]日线图，该公司在昨晚公布财报后有所反应。请记住，该股在财报公布前今年已上涨250%。因此，市场预期一直很高。它达到了预期。目前我们又上涨了4%。
Let's focus on the [music] one-day chart for Dell, the company getting some reaction after reporting earnings late yesterday. Remembering this has run up 250% this year into the print. So, there had been a lot of high expectations. It cleared the bar. We're up another 4% right now.
许多分析师曾告诉我，它仍有增长空间，尤其是因为AI服务器需求抵消了内存定价的看跌论点。那么，让我们深入探讨我们从戴尔听到的财报以及今天早上卖方分析师的反应。
Many analysts had told me that it did still have room to grow, particularly because of that AI server demand offsetting the bear case [music] for memory pricing. So, let's dig into the report that we heard from Dell and the reaction we're seeing from the sell-side analysts said this morning.
反应是向上的，Stam。我的意思是，尘埃落定，它守住了我们昨天看到它传来时获得的涨幅。虽然比昨晚盘后略低，但由于这些创纪录的AI服务器订单和其他一些创纪录的指标，包括他们的营收，我们仍然上涨了约4.5%。
The reaction's to the upside, Stam. I mean, the dust settled and it held onto the gains that we saw yesterday when we were watching it come across the wire. Albeit a little bit lower than what we saw after hours yesterday, we're still up about 4 and 1/2% on these record orders for AI servers and some other record metrics, including their revenue here.
他们的季度营收创纪录达到470亿美元，同比增长58%。每股收益为6.34美元，较去年同期增长273%。调整后每股收益也增长了203%，达到7.04美元。他们还录得了创纪录的609亿美元AI服务器积压订单。
他们本季度结束时积压订单达到创纪录的950亿美元。
Uh their revenue for the quarter was a record $47 billion. That was a 58% increase year over year. Earnings per share came in at $6.34. That was up 273% from the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings also rose 203% to $7.04 per share. They also booked a record $60.9 billion AI server backlog. They exited the quarter with a record $95 billion backlog.
戴尔还表示，其传统服务器、网络和存储业务均实现增长。正因为如此，首席执行官接着说：“随着AI势头加速，我们的机会在整个产品组合中扩大，我们将2027财年全年营收预期上调250亿美元，至1920亿美元。这比去年同期增长了近70%。”
Dell also saying it saw growth in its traditional servers, networking, and storage businesses. And because of all of this, they uh the CEO went on to say, "With AI momentum accelerating and our opportunity expanding across the portfolio, we're raising our full-year fiscal 2027 revenue outlook by $25 billion to $192 billion. That's up nearly 70% year over year."
现在，随着这些企业客户采用AI并在本地使用AI服务器来运行这些代理式AI查询，戴尔的订单激增，当然，这使得戴尔的股价截至今天上午今年迄今上涨超过250%。
Now, Dell has seen its orders balloon as these enterprise customers adopt AI and use AI servers locally to run these agentic AI queries, of course that has sent Dell's stock up more than 250% year-to-date as of this morning.
但我们确实看到了一些卖方反应。美国银行将目标价从505美元上调至600美元。作为参考，目前我们的交易价格约为443美元。他们维持买入评级。他们表示需求继续超过供应，为戴尔创造了良好的定价环境。
他们还非常看好财年营收指引的上调，这是一个重大利好。他们表示，其服务器营收、订单和积压订单甚至远高于该公司此前建模的水平。
But we did get some sell-side reaction here. We've got B of A raising their price target to $600 from $505. For reference, right now we're trading about 443. They're keeping a buy rating. They said demand continues to outpace supply. It's creating a solid pricing environment for Dell. They also really liked that uptick in the fiscal year revenue guidance number, which was a big one. And they're they say their server revenue, their orders, and their backlog were much higher even than what the firm had modeled.
巴克莱也将目标价从550美元上调至603美元，维持增持评级。摩根士丹利将其目标价从433美元上调至499美元，维持中性评级，略显不那么看涨。Piper Sandler将其目标价从497美元上调至558美元，给予增持评级。
摩根大通也将目标价从565美元上调至635美元。Melius Research是我发现的最高目标价，他们将其从650美元上调至735美元，维持买入评级。花旗也将目标价从515美元上调至600美元，称其为明显超预期和需求激增。
We got Barclays also raising their price target to 603 from 550 keeping an overweight. Morgan Stanley upping theirs to 499 from 433 keeping an equal rate rating slightly less bullish there. Piper Sandler raising theirs to 558 from 497. They've got an overweight. JP Morgan also raising theirs to 635 from 565. Melius Research had the highest that I found. They raised theirs up to $735 from $650 keeping a buy rating. And City also raised theirs to 600 from 515 calling it a clear beat surging demand.
很多研报都非常相似，Sam。业绩超预期幅度显著。需求激增显而易见。创纪录的数字令人印象深刻。所有数字都优于这些分析师此前建模的任何预期。总而言之，对戴尔来说，这是一个非常出色的季度。他们在今天的市场上得到了回报。
A lot of the notes very similar, Sam. The beat was significant. The surging demand was evident. The record numbers were impressive. And all of the numbers were better than any of these analysts had modeled for. So all in all, just a blockbuster quarter for Dell. And they're being rewarded for it in the markets today.
那么，市场已经表态了。戴尔似乎交出了一些惊人的数字。门槛很高，他们跳了过去。你会如何处理一个示例交易？是的，出色的财报，出色的指引。不过，市场有点紧张。所以，我非常看好戴尔和整个板块的长期前景，但我认为目前，必须顺应这波上涨。
而且，不幸的是，我们已经比今天早些时候的高点低了大约30美元。435附近有强劲支撑，阻力位在我们今天早些时候触及的高点。
So, the market has spoken. Uh some phenomenal numbers, it seems like, out of Dell. Uh the bar was high, they jumped over it. How would you approach an example trade? Yeah, great report, great guidance. The markets are on edge a little bit, though. So, I really love Dell and the entire space for down the road, but I think for right now, um got to feed this move higher. And and we're already, unfortunately, about 30 bucks off the highs from earlier today. There is big support around 435, resistance up where we hit earlier today.
所以，我要做的是卖出9月18日到期的铁鹰式期权，也就是几周后。我在下行方向卖出435/425看跌价差。我在上行方向卖出480/490看涨价差。这给了我一个非常宽的盈利区间。我可以从中收取相当不错的权利金，大约6到650美元。
所以，我的风险只有大约3.50美元。到9月18日，我的盈亏平衡点，Sam，下行方向是428.50，上行方向是486.50。
So, what I'm doing is I'm selling an iron condor using September 18th, so going out, you know, couple weeks here. I'm selling the 435 425 put spread on the downside. I'm selling the 480 490 call spread on the upside. Gives me a really wide area here to make money. I can collect a really nice credit on that, somewhere 6 650 on that. So, my risk is only about $3.50 or so. And on September 18th, my break evens, Sam, on the downside would be 428.50, on the upside would be 486.50.
好的，戴尔财报后的情况不错，正如我们提到的。接下来是HPE。
Okay, good look at Dell post earnings, as we mentioned. We've got HPE next cab off the rank.
这个频道对 $DELL 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。