$DELL

Dell 的强劲业绩与不断增长的订单储备支撑看多逻辑;若数据中心需求持续,该股有望达到 595。

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《DELL Stock Quadruples Over 2026: Still a Buy Amid AI Data Center Buildout?》
Schwab Network发布 2026-09-22 · 19 段内容
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19 段内容
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现在是时候更深入地分析戴尔了。这是我们重点介绍科技板块的环节。戴尔有一些好消息。我会先从光明的一面讲起。我们就从那里开始,尽管该股今天下跌了4%。

It's time to delve deeper into analyzing Dell. This is our segment to highlight technology. There was some good news for Dell. I'll start, as you know, with the bright side of the picture.

Let's start from there, even though the stock is down 4% today.

戴尔是一家非常有意思的公司。就像英特尔和AMD一样,它的价值自年初以来几乎翻了三倍。所以,它经历了一轮巨大的行情。

Well, Dell is a very interesting company. Just like Intel and AMD, its value has almost tripled since the beginning of the year. So, it has witnessed a tremendous movement.

与此同时,与这两家公司不同,戴尔的市盈率仍然相当低。有若干积极因素支撑这家公司。他们销售大量专用于AI的数据中心服务器,此外他们还为传统客户群中的现有资产基础进行升级。

At the same time, unlike these two companies, Dell's price-to-earnings ratio remains quite low . There are a number of positive factors that support the company. You have huge numbers of AI-dedicated data center servers that they sell, in addition to the upgrades they make to their existing asset base among their traditional customers.

接着,更多传统客户也在主动升级,有些情况下不仅是为了把部分AI能力引入内部,也是为了提升整体计算能力,以及提升与员工目前借助代理式AI所做工作互动的能力。

Then, more traditional customers are also making proactive upgrades not only to bring some of these AI capabilities in-house in some cases, but also to increase their overall computing capabilities and ability to interact with what employees are doing now using proxy AI.

所以现在,问题在于,既然我们看到数据中心在升级,那至少是那里的一部分好消息。你预计这一趋势会持续下去吗?目前,戴尔的订单积压覆盖近六个季度,因为他们仍在努力为数据中心生产服务器。

So at this point now, the question was, since we are seeing upgrades in data centers, that is at least part of the good news there. Do you expect this trend to continue? Well, right now, Dell has an order backlog that spans nearly six quarters, as they are still trying to produce servers for data centers.

据我了解,这并不是因为他们自身制造环节出了障碍,而是因为供应某些较稀缺零部件的能力。

Now, as I understand it, this is not due to a stumbling block in their own manufacturing, but rather to the ability to supply some of those rarer components.

那么问题就变成:一旦这些零部件供应更加充足,并且如果制造能够跟上需求,这些数据中心会继续与戴尔做生意、利用其既有基础和供应链,还是会变得自给自足、自行采购这些零部件?

So the question becomes , once these components become more widely available, and if manufacturing catches up with demand, will these data centers continue to deal with Dell and take advantage of its legacy base and supply chain, or will they become self-reliant and source those components individually?

内存肯定在给戴尔的利润带来压力。在他们安装的某些服务器中,内存已成为主要的成本来源,有些情况下占到服务器价格的一半。所以,那里肯定存在挑战和障碍。内存确实是个问题。

Oh, memory is definitely putting pressure on Dell's profits. For some of those servers that they install, memory has become a major source of cost, and in some cases it accounts for half the price of the server.

So, there are definitely challenges and obstacles there. Memory is a real problem.

但目前,与HPE不同,戴尔愿意接受更低的利润率,以换取市场份额并继续供应那些系统。鉴于利润率不断收窄,你认为像“戴尔”这样股价你提到已大幅上涨的公司,是否仍有机会?它的未来前景如何,尤其是考虑到当前估值、内存带来的利润率压力,以及数据中心扩张的潜力?你要在这些之间寻求平衡的时候?

But at the moment, unlike HPE, Dell was willing to accept lower profit margins in order to gain market share and continue supplying those systems. Given the shrinking profit margins, do you think a name like "Dell," whose stock price you mentioned has seen a significant increase , still has opportunities?

What are the future prospects for it, especially considering the current valuation with profit margin pressures due to memory, and the potential for data center expansion ? You know, when you're trying to balance all of that?

是的,我们看到市盈率高于30,这通常不是你会喜欢的,但另一方面,他们的销售额增长了50%,我认为他们的净利润增长超过100%。所以,看这些数字,在我看来这一估值还不算过高。

Yes, we are looking at a price-to- earnings ratio that is above 30, which is not something you usually like, but on the other hand, their sales have increased by 50% and I think their net profit has increased by more than 100%.

So, when you look at these numbers, that assessment is not yet excessive in my opinion.

问题还是那个:这能持续多久?这是这些数据中心的一次性推动,之后它们会离开戴尔、被迫回归传统业务吗?不过,有一个非常有意思的点:据报道,他们已安装的服务器中有70%——也就是他们公司内部的常规服务器——已使用超过9年,意味着它们落后了好几代。

目前许多公司选择推进并尝试更新或升级这些系统。所以,你有这样一个积极的驱动因素,它也能抵消数据中心AI服务器需求可能出现的一些放缓。

The problem is, once again, how long will this continue? Is this a one-time push for these data centers, whereby they will later move away from Dell and be forced to return to their traditional businesses?

However, there is a very interesting point: it has been reported that 70% of their installed servers, which are their regular in-company servers , are over 9 years old , meaning they are several generations old.

Many companies are choosing to move forward and try to update or upgrade those systems at the moment. So, you have this as a positive driving factor that can also offset some of the potential slowdown in demand for AI servers in data centers.

当我们考虑低利润率时,我们发现戴尔拿下了部分业务,但利润率更低。这是“戴尔”特有的问题,还是市场上有更好的参与者?

When we consider low profit margins, we find that Dell captures a portion of the business, but with lower profit margins. Is this a problem specific to "Dell", or are there better players on the market?

我并不一定认为有比她更好的参与者。我认为她愿意牺牲一小部分利润率来换取市场份额。

I do n't necessarily think there are better players than her . I think she was willing to sacrifice a small portion of the profit margin to gain market share.

当我想到你说的HPE在那里更具选择性、订单簿更小,它的规模与目前我们从戴尔看到的不在同一量级。我认为 Dell 的供应链确实非常出色。他们在多个国家拥有自己运营的制造业务。很明显,他们也大量使用外包。

他们的供应链经受住了考验,这就是为什么我认为许多数据中心选择直接购买现成的 Dell 组件,而不是设法直接获取。他们与供应商有着长期的关系。在很多情况下,他们自然也与其供应常规服务器的许多公司有着长期关系。

但 Dell 的这条供应链看起来相当有韧性,是目前他们最大的优势之一。

And when I think about what you said about HPE being more selective out there, with a smaller order book, it's not on the same scale as what we've seen from Dell at the moment.

Ah, I think Dell has a really impressive supply chain . They have manufacturing operations that they carry out themselves in a number of different countries. It is clear that they also use a lot of outsourcing.

Their supply chain held up, and that's why I think many data centers chose to go ahead and buy off-the- shelf Dell components rather than trying to get them directly. They have long-standing relationships with their suppliers.

In many cases, they naturally have long-standing relationships with many of the companies to which they also supply their regular servers. But that supply chain looks pretty resilient for Dell and is one of their biggest advantages at the moment.

你说过你愿意在市盈率高于 30 的这个价格买入,但事实是他们的销售额增长了 50%,净利润增长了 100%。我不知道这能持续多久。当你看到 Dell 在 554 这个位置时,你对其股价走向的基本判断是什么?

Okay, I mean you said you were happy to buy at this price with a P/E ratio above 30, but the fact is their sales have increased by 50% and their net profit by 100%. I don't know how long that will last.

When you see Dell here at 554, what is your basic perception of where its stock price is headed?

595 是上一个高点。你认为我们能到那里吗?我当然相信我们能做到。他们仍在积极销售服务器。他们的订单簿在不断增长,只要这种情况持续下去,还会进一步扩大。

595 was the last high. Do you think we'll get there? I certainly believe we can do that . They are still actively selling servers . Their order book is constantly growing, and as long as that continues, it will extend even further.

希望在于,六七个季度之后,他们或许能够降低一些内存价格。如果某些先进芯片的价格下跌,未来我们可能会看到利润率大幅改善的机会。与此同时,压力可能还会持续一段时间。

The hope is, you know, that after six or seven quarters they might be able to lower some memory prices. If those prices for some of those advanced chips were to fall, we might see an opportunity for a much better profit margin in the future.

At the same time, we may see the pressure continue for some time.

但 Dell 的基准情景仍然是,短期内我看不到他们当前轨迹出现放缓。我认为未来两三年最大的问题将是他们能否继续在数据中心市场销售,以及这种需求能否持续。但他们处于非常有利的位置,并且表现出非常强劲的业绩。

But, you know, the baseline scenario for Dell, again, is that I don't see a slowdown in their current trajectory in the short term. I think the biggest question over the next two or three years will be whether they can continue to sell in the data center market , and whether that demand will continue.

But they are in a very good position and are showing a very strong performance.

是的,我觉得她谈到我们在需求方面看到的情况,以及人工智能如何支撑这里的增长故事,很有意思。但在存储方面,Morgan Stanley 也指出,Dell 在第二季度实际上是外部存储公司及此类设备制造商中收入市场份额增幅最大的。

所以,它仍在获得市场份额,也仍在实现销售,正如你指出的,Ryan Kelly。这对 Dell 来说是好消息,Legato Financial 的 IT 总监先生。

Yes, and I found it interesting when she talked about what we see in terms of demand, and how artificial intelligence contributes to supporting the growth story here. But with regard to storage as well, Morgan Stanley noted that Dell actually recorded the largest increase in its market share of revenue among external storage companies and manufacturers of such equipment in the second quarter.

So, it's still gaining market share, and it's still making sales, as you pointed out, Ryan Kelly. That's good news for Dell, Mr. IT Director at Legato Financial.

观察点

数据中心市场销售与需求的持续情况
若需求持续,股价将进一步上行;若需求放缓,则逻辑走弱
未来两到三年未来的财报以及关于 AI 服务器需求的行业数据
若需求持续,则支撑看多逻辑;若数据中心转向自给自足或需求放缓,则削弱该逻辑

这个频道对 $DELL 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 8 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-22看涨本条
现在是时候更深入地分析戴尔了。这是我们重点介绍科技板块的环节。
2026-09-18看涨
我们来谈谈你的下一个选择。这张图表在动能方面与我们从春季以来在这只股票上看到的有些相似,但波动幅度要大得多。我的意思是,从年初到现在,Dell 的股票已经上涨了 360%。
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