DUOL 目前不适合进行波段交易买入，只有当价格跌至 90 美元时才可能值得关注。
逐段跳播
但举个例子，我们拿 Duolingo 来说。我其实并没有为这只股票设定任何具体的目标价位。第一件事，你一开口问我：Luton，你怎么看 Duolingo？因为这类问题我们一直收到。
你怎么看股票“X”或“Y”？我会说：好，你是打算在这里买入，还是在这里做空？答案是既不是这个也不是那个。是不是这样？要进场做一笔交易，尤其是在波段交易中——我这里说的是波段交易，对吧？这些股票必须满足我设定的某些条件。是不是这样？
But, for example, let's take Duolingo. I do n't actually have any specific target levels for this stock. First thing, as soon as you ask me: Luton, what do you think of Duolingo?
Because these are questions we receive all the time. What do you think of stock "X" or "Y"? I would say: Okay, are you going to buy it here or sell it short here? The answer is neither this nor that.
Isn't that so ? In order to enter into a trade, especially in swing trading, I am talking about swing trading here, right? I have certain qualifications that these shares must meet. Isn't that so ?
比如在这个例子里，Duolingo，我看到它已经从最高位大幅下跌。它现在的最高位在哪里？它比一年多前的峰值下跌了约 73%，对吧？大约 14 个月前。跌幅约为 76%。那么，我能做空吗？
这相当困难，不是吗？我更倾向于买入。是不是这样？因为我的偏向是它处于“超卖”状态，这使得出现反弹的可能性更大。
For example, in this case, Duolingo , I see that it has fallen far from its highest levels. Where are its highest levels now? It's down about 73% from its peak a little over a year ago, right?
About 14 months ago. A decrease of approximately 76%. So, can I sell short? It's rather difficult, isn't it? I would be more inclined to buy. Isn't that so? Because my bias is that it is in a state of "oversold ", which makes a possible rebound more likely.
但如果你看从 4 月最低点到现在的底部，发生了什么？它已经反弹了超过 70%，超过 68%，接近 70%。你可以说这是向上方向的过度。所以，在这种情况下，我当然不会做空，尽管它已经上涨了 70%。
我不会做空，因为我认为整体趋势倾向于继续走高，仅仅因为它处于“超卖”状态，对吧？
But if you look at the bottom from its lowest point in April to where it is now , what happened? It has bounced back by more than 70%, more than 68%, close to 70%. Which you could say is an exaggeration in the upward direction.
So, in this case, I will of course not short sell, even though it has risen by 70%. I will not sell short because I believe the overall trend favors a higher move simply because it is in a state of " oversold", right?
关于它在图上的位置。但这并不意味着我会在这里买入。接下来我要做的是寻找不同的潜在买入价位。我预期这只股票 Duolingo 的支撑在哪里？在这种情况下，对吗？对于波段交易来说，也许吧。
也许我应该看看，等等，如果它回到这个关键点位会怎样，对吧？这正好是在财报之后，是 Duolingo 自上个月财报暴跌以来达到的最低点。是不是这样？回到 112 这个水平。砰。在那个水平上跌幅为 24% 到 25%。
你会找到支撑。你很可能会在那个低点枢轴位找到支撑。是不是这样？
Regarding its position on the graph. But that doesn't mean I'm going to buy it here. The next thing I do is look for different levels of potential purchase. Where do I expect support for this stock, Duolingo?
In this case, is it correct? For swing trading, perhaps. Perhaps I should look at, wait, what if she comes back to this pivotal point, right? This is directly after earnings, the lowest point Duolingo has reached since its earnings slump just last month.
Isn't that so ? Back to level 112. Boom. A decrease of 24% to 25% at that level. You will find support. You are likely to find support at that low pivot point. Isn't that so?
此外，下一个水平是什么？对我来说，我在看那之后的下一个最低水平。这是我全年达到的最低点。是不是这样？这个，嗯，会是一次大幅反转，跌幅约 40%。但在我看来，嗯，这是我的第一支撑位。
这是我的第二支撑位。是不是这样？这就是我为潜在波段交易所期待的东西。
In addition, what is the next level? For me, I'm looking at the next lowest level after that. The lowest point I reached all year . Isn't that so? This, well, would be a big reversal, a drop of about 40%.
But in my mind, well, this is my first level of support . This is my second level of support. Isn't that so? This is what I'm looking forward to for a potential swing trade.
现在，我真的会做这笔交易吗？我真的会那样做吗？我还有另外两件事要考虑。光有支撑还不够。我需要从整体上看这家公司。没错，我对这家公司的看法是什么？这家公司为什么表现好或表现差，是不是这样？
为什么在利润为正的情况下股价却下跌了，对不对？尽管它继续上涨。还有，你知道，我到底有多喜欢这家公司？没错，我相信这家公司吗？是不是这样？
Now, am I actually going to make this deal? Will I really do that? I have two other things to consider. Support alone is not enough. I need to look at the company as a whole. That's right, what's my opinion of this company?
Why does this company perform well or poorly, isn't that so? Why did the stock decline despite the positive profits, isn't that right ? Although it continued to rise. And what is, you know, how much do I actually like this company?
That's right, do I believe in this company? Isn't that so?
嗯，首先，如你所知，Duolingo 是一家销售软件或拥有应用程序的公司。它是一家让用户学习其他语言的软件公司。但随着人工智能的进步，Duolingo 将如何受到威胁，对吧？或者他们能否很好地整合这项技术？
是这样吗，还是我们只会得到能自动为你翻译一切的眼镜？没错，有很多事情需要考虑。
Well, first of all, Duolingo, as you know, is a company that sells software or owns an application. It is a software company that allows users to learn other languages. But with advances in artificial intelligence, how will Duolingo be threatened, right?
Or can they integrate the technology well? Is that true, or will we just get glasses that automatically translate everything for you? That's right, there are many things to consider.
所以，对我来说，我可能会选择观望，不是吗？仅仅因为它不符合那些关键条件，但也许如果它跌到 90 美元，那个水平，我可能会感兴趣。
So, for me, I'll probably step away , won't I? Just because it doesn't meet those key qualifications, but maybe if it drops to $90, that level , I might be interested.
现在，这是专门针对波段交易的。我在开始这个视频时告诉过你，我的条件对于波段交易、长期投资和日内交易会有所不同。回到 Duolingo 的日内交易，这可能是一个很好的反弹水平。至少在白天的交易时段，我预期会有大量支撑。
这意味着什么？这意味着如果价格跌到那个水平，我预期当天或从那个水平出现反弹。这并不意味着它之后不能再跌得更低，而只是最初的一跳，“砰”，进进出出。这就是我认为在 Duolingo 那里可能发生的情况。
Now, this is specifically for swing trading. When I started this video, I told you that my qualifications would be different for swing trading, long- term investments, and day trading.
Returning to Duolingo for day trading, this could be a great level for a bounce. I expect plenty of support during the day at least. What does that mean? This means that if the price drops to that level, I expect a rebound that day or from that level.
It doesn't mean it can't go any lower after that, but just an initial jump, "boom," in and out. This is what I think might happen there in Duolingo.
然而，当我们的思路从长期波段交易设置转移开时，我接下来会寻找其他潜在的日内交易水平。我可以稍微大胆一些。这里有一个水平，在 130 美元附近有一个不错的缺口回补，应该会跌到那个水平，那也应该提供支撑，至少在白天交易时段。
现在，它是否像财报公布后的那个关键底部以及财报后达到的最低价格那样强？绝对不是。它是否像它全年达到的最低点那样强？绝对不是。但它是否仍然足够强，能为 Duolingo 提供一个支撑区域？绝对是。
However, as we shift our mindset from long-term swing trading setups, I will then look for other potential day trading levels . I can be a little bolder . There is a level here, a good gap filling around $130 that should have dropped to that level, that should also provide support, at least during the day.
Now, is it as strong as this pivotal bottom after the earnings announcement and the lowest price it reached after the earnings? Absolutely not. Is it as strong as the lowest point it has reached all year?
Absolutely not. But is it still strong enough to provide a support zone for Duolingo? Absolutely, it is.
所以，我现在已经向你展示了我在波段交易中会寻找什么，我在日内交易中会寻找什么，最后，如果我是在寻找长期投资，这家公司甚至不会进入我的视野。首先，如你所知，我在寻找长期投资时会有几个标准。
没错，首先，它必须是一个强大且值得信赖的名字。Duolingo 还行，不是吗？它不错，但它不像 Nike 那样绝对是最好的，对吧？或者 McDonald's。无论你是否在 McDonald's 吃饭，或者是否喜欢这家公司，McDonald's 大概 10 年后仍然会存在。至于 Duolingo，我就不太确定了。
So, I've now shown you what I would look for in swing trading, what I would look for in day trading, and finally, if I were looking for a long-term investment, this company wouldn't even be on my radar .
First and foremost , as you know, I have a few criteria I look for when I'm looking to invest for the long term. That's right, first of all, it needs to be a strong and trustworthy name.
Duolingo is okay, isn't it? It's good, but it's not the absolute best like Nike, right? Or McDonald's. Whether you eat at McDonald's or like the company or not, McDonald's will probably still be around 10 years from now. As for Duolingo, I'm not so sure.
我寻找的另一样东西是股息派发，对不对？如你所知，支付股息的股票可以在买入并持有的期间给我们带来回报。买入一只股票，持有它，然后卖出赚钱是一回事，但如果它的价值在你持有期间持续稳步上涨，而且股票继续根据你持有的股数向你支付股息，那肯定会让我想买入它。
最后，我其实并不想找波动太大的东西。回到 Duolingo 的图表，我们看到它正在经历巨大的波动。在几个月内，从 4 月到 8 月，该股上涨了 90%，而在短短两天内，它下跌了 18%。
对我来说，它非常难以预测。是不是这样？因为我希望处于这样一种状态：我不必不断监控我的长期投资。我可以让我的钱为我工作，而不是不断查看和担心：“天哪，它涨了 20%。天哪，它跌了 20%。
我该不该加仓？”对吧？在我寻找长期投资时，我其实并不想要那种东西。
Another thing I'm looking for is dividend payouts , isn't that right? Stocks that pay dividends, as you know, can give us a return during the buy and hold period. Buying a stock, holding it, and then selling it to make money is one thing, but if its value continues to rise steadily while you hold it, and the stock continues to pay you dividends based on the number of shares you own, then that will certainly make me want to buy it .
Finally, I'm not really looking for something that's too volatile. Returning to the Duolingo chart, we see that it is experiencing enormous fluctuations. Within a few months, from April to August, the stock rose by 90%, and in just two days, it fell by 18%.
It's very unpredictable for me. Isn't that so ? Because I want to be in a position where I don't have to constantly monitor my long-term investments. I can let my money work for me instead of constantly checking and worrying: "Oh my god, it's up 20%.
Oh my god, it's down 20%. Should I add to my balance sheet?" correct? I'm not really looking for that when I'm looking to invest for the long term.
观察点
这个频道对 $DUOL 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。