DUOL 仍被持有，但鉴于新客户获取策略带来的高风险，当前价格缺乏足够的安全边际。
逐段跳播
因此，面对人工智能带来的威胁，Duolingo 管理团队选择了自己的应对方式。这一应对方式是什么？他们专注于吸引客户，即便以牺牲盈利能力为代价。
So, in light of the threat posed by artificial intelligence, the Duolingo management team chose its response. What is this response? Well, they focus on attracting customers even at the expense of profitability.
这意味着提供更多免费功能来吸引客户使用该平台，即便这意味着从这些客户身上获得的收入会减少。因此，这对投资者而言很可能意味着客户参与度提高以及日活跃用户增长，管理层设定的目标是在未来两年内达到 1 亿用户。
This means more free features to attract customers to the platform, even if it means less revenue generation from those same customers. So, what this means for investors is likely increased customer engagement and a rise in daily active users, which management is targeting at 100 million users over the next two years.
但这将付出代价。这一代价究竟会是什么，仍是一个很大的问号。不过，市场目前对这一应对方式是认可的，因为 Duolingo 的股价已从今年早些时候的低点强劲回升。
But this will come at a cost. What this cost will be remains a big question mark. However, the market has appreciated this response for now, as Duolingo's share price has recovered strongly from its lows earlier this year.
那么，这是否使 Duolingo 股票当下成为一个买入机会？让我们一起来回答这个问题，方法是考察该公司的长期表现，将其与估值进行比较，并判断它对长期投资者而言是否代表一个具有吸引力的风险回报局面。
So, does this make Duolingo stock a buying opportunity right now? Let's answer this question together by looking at the company's long-term performance, comparing it to its valuation, and determining whether it represents an attractive risk- reward situation for long-term investors .
在人工智能带来威胁，以及不仅来自人工智能、还来自不同科技公司提供的其他语言翻译产品的效率和竞争不断提升之前，学习一门全新语言的需求已经下降。
Before the threat of artificial intelligence and the increasing efficiency and competition not only from artificial intelligence, but also from other language translation offerings from different technology companies, the need to learn a completely new language decreased.
Duolingo 在拓展业务方面一直表现良好，其收入从 2020 年的约 1 亿增长到过去十二个月的超过 11.5 亿。
Duolingo has been doing well in expanding its business, with its revenue growing from around 100 million in 2020 to more than 1.15 billion over the past twelve months.
Duolingo 应用在语言学习者中非常受欢迎，而且现在依然如此。
The Duolingo app is very popular among language learners, and it still is.
更令人印象深刻的是，Duolingo 正利用这一收入增长来提升盈利能力。这是管理团队在近期一次投资者会议上强调的内容，他们当时表示：“也许我们过度强调了内部收入和盈利能力。”“这让我们付出了市场份额扩张的代价，我们本可以获得更多客户，从长远来看，这些客户本会为公司股东带来大得多的价值，而不是专注于短期盈利能力。”
What's even more impressive is that Duolingo was leveraging this revenue growth to boost profitability. This is something the management team highlighted at a recent investor conference, where they said: "Perhaps we have overemphasized internal revenue and profitability."
"This cost us an expansion of our market share, where we could have gained additional customers who would have added much greater value to the company's shareholders in the long run, rather than focusing on short-term profitability."
自 2022 年以来，他们一直努力大幅改善盈利能力，当时他们的营业利润率为 -30%，随后升至 14.2%。这在许多科技公司中很常见，例如 Salesforce、UI Path、Upwork，以及包括 Duolingo 在内的其他公司，它们在盈利能力上遵循类似的模式。
They have worked to improve profitability significantly since 2022, when their operating margins were -30% and then rose to 14.2%. This is common among many technology companies, such as Salesforce, UI Path, Upwork, and others including Duolingo, which follow a similar pattern in profitability.
这些努力如今正在见效，因为并没有发生真正的衰退，但这些公司并未加快支出步伐。它们保持谨慎，这使上述所有公司的盈利能力都得到改善。
Those efforts are now paying off, as there has been no actual recession, but those companies have not accelerated the pace of spending. They remained cautious, and this led to improved profitability for all the companies mentioned above.
Duolingo 的利润达到 14% 的创纪录水平。然而，这一新战略以牺牲盈利能力和收入创造为代价来获取客户，很可能使 Duolingo 的利润率至少保持不变，甚至可能再次开始下降。
Duolingo's profits reached record levels of 14%. However, this new strategy, which focuses on acquiring customers at the expense of profitability and revenue generation, is likely to keep Duolingo's margins at least the same, or perhaps even start to decline again.
我们已经在投入资本回报率上看到了一些这样的下降，该回报率此前接近 40%，如今已降至 30%。与 2021 年该比率为 -30% 时相比，这些是显著的改善。
We have already seen some of this decline in returns on invested capital, which were approaching 40% and have dropped to 30%. These are significant improvements compared to 2021, when the rate was -30%.
因此，这一下降很可能会持续，但即便在这一水平上，它也超过公司加权平均资本成本的两倍。所以，即便这一数字呈下降趋势，它仍然是一个不错的数字。
Therefore, the decline is likely to continue, but even at this level, it represents more than double the company's weighted average cost of capital. So, it's still a good number, even if the number is trending downwards.
但如果这项新政策确实能吸引到他们预期那么多的客户，这一下行趋势很可能只是短期的。长期来看，投入资本回报率可能趋于上升，回升至峰值前的水平，甚至超过此前的峰值。
But this downward trend is likely to be short-term only if they actually attract as many customers as they believe with this new policy. In the long term, the return on invested capital may trend upwards and return to pre-peak levels , and even surpass its previous peak.
所以，我很有兴趣重新审视一下估值，因为正如我在引言中提到的，该股股价自4月跌至约89美元的低点以来已大幅回升。目前它已回升至143美元，但估值仍然不高。
So, I'm really interested in taking another look at the valuation, because, as I mentioned in the introduction, the stock price has recovered significantly since its lows in April when it fell to around $89.
It has now recovered to $143, but the valuation is still not high.
其预期市盈率为19倍。这仍接近该股过去几年的最低交易水平。因此，尽管股价有所改善，但每股收益及其预测的上调，使Duolingo的股票显得略微低估，即便考虑到较高的风险也是如此。
It is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19. This is still close to the lowest trading level for this stock over the past few years. Therefore, despite the improved share price, the increase in earnings per share and earnings per share forecasts make Duolingo's stock appear slightly undervalued , even considering the high risks.
我今天还更新了Duolingo的现金流折现估值。主要考虑因素是公司估计风险的下降，这使公允价值上升至149美元。当前市场价格为143美元。
I also updated Duolingo's discounted cash flow valuation today. The main consideration was a lower estimated risk to the company, which caused the fair value to rise to $149. The current market price is $143.
因此，它似乎正以其公允价值被定价。你可以说它略微低估，但我不会这么说，因为我习惯平均应用5%到10%的安全边际，而对于像Duolingo这样比通常情况更严峻的情形，我倾向于应用更大的安全边际。
Therefore, it appears to be valued at its fair worth . You could say it's slightly undervalued, but I wouldn't do that because I like to apply a safety margin of 5 to 10% on average, and for a more serious than usual situation like Duolingo, I prefer to apply a larger safety margin.
因此，我会说这只股票目前似乎以略低于其真实价值的价格被合理定价。所以，考虑到公司相对于其公允价值所面临的高风险，我将等待更好的价格来入场买入Duolingo股票。因此，今天我确认对这家公司的“持有”评级。
Therefore, I would say that this stock appears to be fair valued at slightly less than its true value at the moment . Therefore , given the high risk the company faces relative to its fair value, I will wait for a better price to enter and buy Duolingo stock.
Therefore, today I will confirm my " hold" recommendation for this business.
这个频道对 $DUOL 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。