EGP 每股 AFO 的高预期增速（7-10%）足以支撑其当前的溢价估值，使其成为一项合理的投资。
逐段跳播
现在我们来看一家房地产投资信托的大幅股息上调。我们极少看到REIT出现如此大幅度的股息上调。这次是Eastgroup Properties，股息上调了12.9%。
Now we come to a large dividend hike from a real estate investment trust. It's incredibly rare we see this large of a dividend hike from a REIT. Well, we have Eastgroup properties with a 12.9% dividend increase.
现在，如果我们看这只REIT过去一年的表现，它与大多数REIT截然不同。它们上涨了18.8%。不过，仔细看这里。自仲夏以来，我们看到了相当程度的抛售。它一度交易在每股223美元，现在跌到约198美元。
所以，实际上就在过去一个月里，下跌了约3.28%。
Now, if we look at this REIT over the last year, it's a very different story from the majority of REITs. They're up by 18.8. 8%. However, take a close look here. We've seen quite a bit of a sell-off since midsummer.
At one point, they were trading at $223 a share, now down to about 198. So, really in the last month now, down by about 3.28%.
现在，利率走高当然会起作用，纯粹是从机会成本的角度来看，对这类REIT而言。不过，很多人似乎没有理解的是，这只REIT的每股AFO预期增长非常高，至少相对于整体市场而言。看看这个。
是的，它们目前轻松覆盖股息支付，这显然是我们一直希望看到的。收益率约为3.53%。所以，这是一个不错的起始收益率，但它们未来每股调整后营运现金流（AFO）的预期增长速度，在未来3到4到5年里大约是7%到10%。这是一个强劲的每股AFO增长预期。
Now, rates going higher certainly play a role strictly from an opportunity cost perspective for these types of REITs. However, what a lot of people don't seem to understand is projected AFO per share growth for this rate is incredibly high, at least relative to the overall market.
Take a look at this. Yes, they're easily covering their dividend payments right now, which is something we obviously always want to see. The yield is about 3.53%. So, it's a decent starting yield, but the rate at which they're projected to grow adjusted funds from operations on a per share basis moving forward is roughly 7 to 10% over the next 3 to 4 to 5 years.
That's a strong AFO per share growth rate projection.
当然，因此这只REIT确实以溢价交易。尽管估值倍数大幅下降，我们可以看到它目前的交易价格大约是每股AFO的25.28倍。这远高于我们刚刚看的那只REIT。也高于Realty Income。当然，部分原因是它们的盈利以高速增长。
Of course, as a result, the REIT does trade at a premium. Although the valuation multiples come down considerably, we can see they're currently trading at roughly a 25.28 price to AFO per share multiple.
That's considerably higher than the rate Vichi we just looked at. It's higher than realy income. And of course, part of that is due to the fact they're growing their earnings at a high rate.
那么，为什么会这样？有几个不同的原因。请记住，它们有大量内嵌的租金上调。EGP现有的租约大多是在工业租金低得多的时候签下的，再次说明，作为参考，这是一只工业类REIT。我们说的是一家自我管理的工业REIT，专注于美国各地的高增长市场，比如德克萨斯、佛罗里达、加利福尼亚、亚利桑那以及北卡罗来纳。
除此之外，它们还自己开发物业，而不是完全依赖收购。那么，为什么这很重要？它们可以在这里列出的这些州建造这些工业物业。而开发通常比购买已稳定运营的物业创造更多价值，因为EGP能够以比通过收购更高的收益率来建造。所以它们显然确实有一些优势。
So why is that the case? Well, there's a couple of different reasons. Keep in mind, they have large embedded rent increases. EGP's existing leases were generally signed when industrial rents were much lower, which again, for reference, this is an industrial rate.
We're talking about a self-managed industrial REIT that focuses on high growth markets across the US like Texas, Florida, California, Arizona, as well as North Carolina. On top of this, they also develop properties instead of relying entirely on acquisitions.
So why is that important? Well, they can build these industrial properties in these states listed here. And the development usually creates more value than buying stabilized properties because EGP can build at a higher yield than it could through acquisitions. So they clearly do have some advantages.
现在，从股息贴现模型的角度来看，对这只REIT我们能做的一件更有效的事情，是从市场实际定价了什么这个视角来看它。因为显然已经定价了大量的增长，因为在0%股息增长的情况下，它价值约为每股6941美元。
但如果我们反推，可以看到市场定价了约5.25%的股息增长。这与当前股价非常接近。
Now from a dividend discount model perspective, one of the more effective things we can do for this REIT is look at them through the lens of what is the market actually pricing in?
Because obviously there's a lot of growth priced in because at 0% dividend growth, they're worth about $6941 per share. But if we back into this, we can see the market's pricing in about 5.25% dividend growth. That's very close to the current share price.
所以显然，长期来看每股AFO增长将大幅下降。它们无法维持10%的增长。对一只REIT来说，长期做到这一点几乎是不可能的。所以，我认为在定价了那种水平的股息增长的情况下，这是一个还算合理的估值。
未来几年股息增长很容易更高，但会在接下来几年开始趋于平稳。
So obviously long-term AFO share growth will come down substantially. they won't be able to maintain 10% growth. That's nearly impossible for a rate to do for the long term. So, I think this is a somewhat reasonable valuation with that level of dividend growth priced in.
Dividend growth could easily be higher over the next few years, but it'll start to level off in the coming years.
这个频道对 $EGP 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。