将ELF评级下调至持有；当前股价（107美元）高于DCF公允价值（55美元），且利润率扩张落后于营收增长。
逐段跳播
e.l.f. Beauty 报告净销售额同比增长 36%，毛利率提升至 83%，部分原因是美国最高法院裁定该公司此前支付的关税非法，因此获得了退款。
e.l.f. Beauty reported 36% year-over-year net sales growth with a gross profit margin increasing to 83% thanks to partly to refunds of tariffs the company paid earlier that were rejected as illegal by the Supreme Court of the United States.
该公司上调了 2026 年的展望，目前预计中点收入增长 19%，高于此前预测的中点增长 13%。当然，所有这些都导致股价上涨，e.l.f. Beauty 的股票在 2026 年至今已上涨超过 40%。
The company revised its outlook for 2026 higher, now expecting revenue growth of 19% at the midpoint, up from the previously forecasted 13% at the midpoint. Of course, all of this is leading to an increasing share price as e.l.f. Beauty stock is now up over 40% year-to-date in 2026.
当然，我对此感到高兴，因为我在 3 月底将 e.l.f. Beauty 股票评为买入机会，所以我很高兴看到股价飙升。
And of course, I'm happy about that because I ranked e.l.f. Beauty stock as a buying opportunity in late March, so I'm happy to see the share price soaring.
但这仍然是一个买入机会吗？让我们深入探讨，一起回答这个问题。
But does this make it a buying opportunity still? Well, let's take a deeper dive and answer that question together.
多年来，e.l.f. Beauty 的收入飙升，因为它提供价格实惠的产品，并继续进行积极的营销以促进销售。其最近与 Target 和其他公司的合作正在帮助将其分销网络扩展到更多渠道。
So, over the years, e.l.f. Beauty has seen its revenue soar as it offers affordable products and continues aggressive marketing to facilitate sales. Its recent partnership with Target and others is helping to expand its distribution network to additional channels.
此外，该公司正在将其供应链多元化，从中国转移出去，因为中国是关税税率最高的国家。管理团队表示，到今年年底，其制造业务中不到 60% 将在中国。
Additionally, the company is diversifying its supply chain outside of China since that's the country that's being hit with the highest tariff rates. The management team said that less than 60% of its manufacturing will be in China by the end of this year.
整体收入已飙升至 17 亿美元，管理团队预计未来增长接近 20%，这表明他们将利用部分关税退款来增加营销活动，以进一步降低价格。
Revenues overall have soared to 1.7 billion, and the management team is forecasting near 20% growth ahead, suggesting that they'll use some of those tariff refunds to increase marketing activity to lower prices further still.
虽然其收入增长一直持续且强劲，但其利润率扩张则更加波动。过去 12 个月的营业利润率为 12%，在过去十年中最高达到 17%，最低达到 3%。
While its revenue growth has been consistent and aggressive, its profit margin expansion has been more volatile. Its operating profit margin over the trailing 12-month period was 12% and it's reached as high as 17% and as low as 3% over the previous decade.
其营业盈利能力没有明显提高，因为管理团队继续实施积极的促销激励和折扣计划，以扩大销售并获取市场份额。更糟糕的是，该公司的投入资本回报率已从约 23% 的高点大幅下降至仅 3.17%。
No clear increase in its operating profitability as the management team continues its aggressive promotional incentive and discounting programs to expand sales and gain market share. Worse, still the company's return on invested capital has fallen significantly from the high water mark of around 23% down to just 3.17%.
我经常谈到公司如何通过增加促销活动来产生销售，而这并不是对公司产品有机需求的真正体现。
I talk a lot about how companies can generate sales by increasing promotional activity and that's not really demonstration of organic demand for the company's products.
更强大的信号是，当一家公司销售增长，其利润率和利润也随之增长。e.l.f. Beauty 并未表现出这一点。他们表现出收入增长，但这主要源于增加的营销活动，无论是促销、折扣、激励、收购、新产品、新的分销协议等等。
More powerful of a signal is when a company is growing sales and their profit margins and profits are increasing in kind. e.l.f. Beauty is not demonstrating that. They're demonstrating growing revenue, but it's mostly resulting from increasing marketing activity, whether it be promotions, discounts, incentives, acquisitions, new products, new distribution deals, etc., etc.
e.l.f. Beauty 目前的远期市盈率为 28，根据这一估值指标，这仍处于该股自 2023 年底以来的交易区间下限。
e.l.f. Beauty is now trading at a forward price to earnings of 28, which is still on the lower end of where this stock has traded for according to this valuation metric going back to late 2023.
虽然销售增长令人印象深刻，但当我将其与估值进行比较时，该公司盈利能力缺乏改善有点令人担忧。如果估值更便宜，我不会对这个因素挑剔，但由于其远期市盈率接近 30，我希望看到销售增长与利润率扩大相结合，以巩固我对其需求的判断。
Now, while sales growth is impressive, the company's lack of improving profitability is a little bit concerning when I'm comparing it to its valuation. If the valuation was cheaper, I wouldn't be picky about this factor, but since it's trading at a forward price to earnings near 30, I want to see sales growth coupled with expanding margins to solidify the signal I'm getting about its demand.
该股今年迄今已上涨超过 40%，当然，我上次评估该公司是在 2026 年 3 月 23 日，当时我将其评为买入机会。
The stock is up over 40% year-to-date and of course the last time I evaluated the company was on March 23rd, 2026 where I ranked it as a buying opportunity.
你可以看到，在 3 月 23 日，该股的市场价格约为每股 70 美元，此后已上涨超过 50%，目前交易价格为每股 107 美元。
You could see on March 23rd, this stock was trading at a price market price of around $70 per share and it's since risen by over 50% and is now trading at $107 per share.
今天，我还更新了该公司的贴现现金流估值，我计算出的业务公允价值约为 55 美元。当前市场价格为 107 美元。
Today, I also updated my discounted cash flow valuation for the company and I calculated a fair value of the business around $55. The current market price is $107.
所以，在我看来，估值、市场价格上涨的速度快于业务基本面表现提升的速度。
So, it looks to me like the valuation, the market price has increased quicker than the fundamental performance of the business has increased.
因此，虽然我确实认为该股在 65 至 70 美元的价格区间是一个买入机会，但在每股超过 106 美元的情况下，它看起来不再是一个有吸引力的买入机会。
Therefore, while I did see this stock as a buying opportunity around the $65 to $70 price level, at over $106 per share, it does not look like as an attractive buying opportunity.
所以，综上所述，我将把 Elf Beauty 股票的评级从买入下调至持有，并且我将在 2026 年 8 月 26 日更新该评级。
So, all that being said, I will be downgrading Elf Beauty stock to a hold from a buy and I'm updating that ranking on August 26th, 2026.
这个频道对 $ELF 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。