ETSY 技术面偏弱（处于下行趋势、均线下行、RSI 为 37），但受假日季节性及分析师情绪偏正面影响，短期有望上行。
逐段跳播
我们这里谈的是 Etsy，你有一些图表要给我们看。是的，过去一年 Etsy 的表现与标准普尔 500 指数相差不远。
We are talking about Etsy here , and you have some charts for us to review. Yes, Etsy's performance is not far from the Standard & Poor's 500 index over the past year.
这里 Etsy 是紫色的，标准普尔指数是绿色的，该指数上涨了 15%，而 Etsy 上涨了 11.5%。但 Etsy 的表现远好于整体消费者支出指数。
Etsy is in purple here, and the Standard & Poor's index is in green, with the index up 15%, while Etsy rose 11.5%. But Etsy's performance is much better than the overall consumer spending index.
看看电商领域的一些公司，我们发现 Etsy 与众不同。
Looking at some of the names in the field of e-commerce, we find that Etsy is different.
Etsy 是一家在线商店，提供许多独特的手工制品，这些产品很难从批量生产的商店里买到。而 Etsy 大致处于这一组公司的中间位置，领先于 Amazon 和 Marcato Libre——一个拉美版的 eBay，一家电商集团。
Etsy is an online store that offers many unique, handmade products that are difficult to obtain from mass-produced stores. Etsy, on the other hand, is roughly in the middle of the group , ahead of Amazon and Marcato Libre, a Latin American version of eBay, an e-commerce group.
更仔细地看这张图，我们看到价格达到了 8797 的高点，这是我们 52 周以来的最高水平。我们看到了一波相对强劲的上涨，但它在这一点停了下来。
Looking at the chart in more detail, we see that we reached a high of 8797, which is our highest level in 52 weeks. We saw a relatively strong rise, but it stopped at this point.
我们经历了一段在我提到的那两个高点之间的波动期，而这里我们的最低水平接近 78。
We went through a period of fluctuation between those high levels I mentioned, and our lowest level here was near 78.
也就是说，在一个约 10 美元的宽幅价格区间内，价格频繁波动。主导形态是这两条白线之间的这条下行线。我们在这里记录下了我们的最低水平。
That is, within a wide price range of about $10, where the price fluctuated frequently. The dominant pattern is this downward line between the two white lines. We have recorded our lowest levels here.
如果我们把这条下降趋势线投射到这里的较低水平上。我们停在了我们在这里看到的这些前期高点。
If we project the downtrend line onto the lower levels here. We stopped at these previous high levels that we saw here.
在 70.7 附近，这些前期高点变成了支撑位。现在，趋势是否会转为下行并跌破它，还有待观察。如果发生这种情况，这里在 66 附近会出现另一个相对较低的水平。
At around 70.7, these previous highs became support levels. Now, it remains to be seen whether the trend will turn downward and break through it. If that happens, another relatively low level emerges here near 66.
与此同时，在上行方面，76.50 是回到我们此前区间底部——这里接近 78——途中的一个相对高点。当我们看这种情况下的移动平均线时，我们发现它们正在恶化，并进一步向下移动。
At the same time, on the upside, 76.50 was a relatively high point on the way back to the bottom of our previous range here near 78. When we look at the moving averages in this case, we find that they are deteriorating and moving further downwards.
价格迅速跌破我们的三条移动平均线，即5日、21日和63日指数移动平均线。最近的一条是5日移动平均线，昨日收盘时位于7332。
The price dropped very quickly below three of our moving averages, namely the five- day, 21-day , and 63-day exponential moving averages. The most recent was the five-day moving average, which stood at 7332 at yesterday's close.
相对强弱指数（RSI）也略有加速下行。我们原本有一条斜率平缓、指向下方的粉色线，现在它在这里变成了一条更陡的红色线。我们看到的读数是37。
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also accelerated somewhat downwards. We had a pink line with a moderate slope pointing downwards, and it has now turned into a sharper red line here. We are seeing a reading of 37.
价格仍位于50中线上方，但趋势更偏向下行。我们的成交量分析显示，在约70至75之间有一个显著的成交量点位。若出现上行，价格将再次升至接近80；若出现下行，则降至接近65。
The price is still above the 50 midline, but the trend is more downward. Our trading volume analysis shows a notable trading volume point between approximately 70 and 75 . In the event of an upward move, the price will rise again to near 80, and in the event of a downward move, to near 65.
65是下行的最低目标。指数移动平均线在此点位汇聚。
65 is the minimum downward move. The exponential moving averages converge at this point .
好，Rick，你这里有一个基于这一更新、在Etsy上的交易示例给我们。这只股票可能存在一定的季节性。此外，我们正处在假日购物季的开端。
Okay, Rick, you have an example of a deal for us here on Etsy based on this update. There may be some seasonality in this stock. Also, we are on the cusp of the holiday shopping season .
我相信那里的销售会增加，但请分析一下你的交易示例。展望未来，我们看到对于10月16日的月度到期日，也就是今天之后的下一月度到期日，这就是我们的黄色方框，在该期间上下浮动约10%。
I'm sure sales will increase there, but please analyze your example of the deal. Looking ahead , we see that for the monthly expiry date of October 16, which is the next monthly expiry date after today, this is our yellow box plus or minus about 10% during that period.
因此，基于分析师消息，作为示例，我们对这笔交易抱有正面预期。此外，在10月16日还有一个单一垂直买入期权，行权价为72.5和77.5，价值2美元，已在此支付。
So, based on analyst news, we have positive expectations for this deal as an example. In addition to a single vertical buy option on October 16, at prices of 72.5 and 77.5, worth $2, which was paid here.
因此，最大亏损为200美元（已支付的金额），而最大盈利为300美元。也就是说，风险回报比在2到3之间。我们的盈亏平衡点是74.5，相对于我们预期的10%波动，上涨了2.6%。
Therefore, the maximum loss is US$200 (the amount paid) versus the maximum profit is US$300. That is, the risk-to- reward ratio is between 2 and 3 . Our breakeven point is 74.5, which is 2.6% up against our expected move of 10%.
因此，在这个区间内，从风险角度看，这笔交易被认为是好的。如果维持这笔交易不变，即使这只股票走势良好，我们也只会损失 200 美元，但我们预计未来几天会有一些强势表现。
Therefore, within this range, this deal is considered good in terms of risk. We will only lose $200 if we keep the deal as is, even if things go well in this name, but we expect some strength in the coming days.
是的，这是一笔正面的交易，有一些潜在收益可以抵消部分成本。你有 28 天的有效期，这让你在管理这笔交易时有一定的灵活性。
Yes, this is a positive deal with some potential gains that offset some of the costs. You have a 28-day validity period, which gives you some flexibility in managing the deal.
观察点
这个频道对 $ETSY 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。