FDX 看跌,因技术指标极为糟糕并形成双顶形态,正加入下行趋势。
逐段跳播
你选择了 FedEx 作为这些股票中的第一只。它今天是否承压,仅随整体市场下跌了 0.6%?你对今天的 FedEx 股票有什么看法?
You chose FedEx as the first stock among these stocks. Is it under pressure today, having fallen by only 0.6% along with the market as a whole? What is your opinion on FedEx stock today?
我认为 FedEx 可能是我今天做空交易的首选。我向你承诺过今天只做一笔看空交易,但你看,我会加入当前趋势,正如你稍后会从 Rick 的解释中看到的,这是一个看空趋势。在我看来,在下降的“Hit it”水平附近已经形成了一个双重顶。
I think FedEx might be my go-to option for bearish trading today. I promised you only one bearish trade today, but look, I'm going to join the current trend, which is a bearish trend as you'll see shortly with Rick's explanation.
It appears to me that a double top has already formed around the descending "Hit it" level.
价格已从 340 水平大幅反转至当前值。而且我必须告诉你,这一趋势似乎不会很快停止。技术指标现在处于灾难性的状况。正如我所说,我会进入一笔看空交易,但我会给自己一些时间。对于这笔交易,我们必须等待财报公布;也许价格之后会小幅上涨。
但再次强调,我现在想加入趋势,而这个趋势完全是向下的。
Well, the price has reversed strongly from the 340 level down to the current value. And I must tell you, this trend does not appear to be stopping anytime soon. The technical indicators are in a disastrous situation now.
As I said, I will enter a bearish trade, but I will give myself some time. For this deal, we have to wait for the earnings announcement; perhaps the price will rise slightly afterward.
But again, I want to join the trend now, and this trend is completely downward.
让我们继续看 12 月 18 日的到期日。再一次,我会给自己一些时间;到期日是 12 月 18 日。我会买入 280 的看跌期权。我会卖出 270 的看跌期权作为回报。这笔交易是 3 美元。
因此,以 3 美元执行的 10 美元全额看跌期权价差给了我们充足的时间。如果 FedEx 股票继续下跌,盈利潜力很高。
Let's move on to the expiry date of December 18th. Once again, I will give myself some time; the expiration date is December 18th. I will buy put options at 280. I will sell put options at 270 in return.
This deal is for $3. Therefore, the spread of the $10 full put option that is executed for $3 gives us plenty of time. There is a high potential for profit if FedEx stock continues to decline.
好的,Rick。他说技术指标处于糟糕的状态。你看到的是同样的情况吗?给我们解释一下什么是可怕的?
Okay, Rick. He says the technical indicators are in a terrible state. Do you see the same thing? Explain to us what is horrific?
情况不好。我的意思是,为了澄清其中一些事情,这些是 Don 在这里讨论的双峰区域,大约在 340 或 341。如你所见,这形成了一个 M 形形态,我们到达同一点并看到反弹,你知道,两次分开的反弹。
现在,我们在两条白线之间有一个下降通道形态。在财报公布后、约 306 附近短暂反弹后形成的底部水平,我们已跌破其上方。价格非常迅速地跌穿了它。因此,我们现在有两个重要的着陆区需要考虑。
我们在这里 290 和这里 286 有一组相对低点。这给了我们这里一个潜在支撑区。但我们这里也形成了一个缺口。从 276 到大约 271,如你所见,有一些低点。如果你还记得,这大致对应我们交易的盈亏平衡点和做空执行价。
因此,他们将寻找向下移动到这个支撑区,也就是今年年初 1 月左右大致形成这个缺口的地方。
Well, the situation is not good. I mean, to clarify some of these things, these are the double-peak areas that Don was discussing here, around 340 or 341. As you can see, this forms an M-shaped pattern where we arrive at the same point and see bounces, you know, twice separate.
Now, we have a descending channel shape between the two white lines. We have broken above the bottom level that formed after the earnings announcement near 306 after a short bounce.
The price collapsed through it very quickly. Therefore, we now have two important landing zones to consider. We have a set of relative lows here at 290 and here at 286. This gives us a potential support zone here.
But we also have a gap that has formed here. From 276 to about 271, as you can see, there were some low points. And if you recall, this roughly corresponds to the breakeven point and short execution price of our trade.
Therefore, they will be looking for a downward move to this support zone where this gap was roughly formed at the beginning of the year in January or so.
现在,我们可以看到,在这种情况下,我们的移动平均线显示出加速下行的迹象。如你所见,我们有 5 日、21 日和 63 日指数移动平均线,按其速度降序排列。较快的一条位于较慢的一条下方。
我们还有 251 日指数移动平均线,代表一个交易年度,它是 284.41。因此,这仍然是另一个需要关注的重要看空指标。它也与我们的通道下限非常接近,使其更值得关注。相对强弱指数(RSI)勉强维持在 30 水平之上,该水平代表超卖区。
任何跌破该水平的走势都将表明又一个下行趋势。因此,技术证据在这里不断累积,这不是理想的情况。因此,如果我们跌到 285 水平以下太多,我们将穿过我们在这里看到的高集中交易区,从 285 到 333,其中 312 水平即控制点尤为重要。
如果我们进一步下跌,下一个真正活跃的区域将在大约 245 到 255 之间。
Now, we can see that our moving averages, in this case, are showing signs of an accelerating downward trend. As you can see, we have the five-day, 21-day, and 63-day exponential moving averages sorted in descending order of their speed.
The faster one is below the slower one. We also have the 251-day exponential moving average, which represents one trading year, and it is 284.41. Therefore, this remains another important bearish indicator to watch.
It also aligns very closely with the lower limit of our channel, making it even more important to follow. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is barely holding above the 30 level, which represents the oversold zone.
Any move below this level will indicate another downward trend. Therefore, the technical evidence is piling up here, and this is not the ideal situation. Therefore, if we fall too far below the 285 level, we will be passing through the high-concentration trading zone we have seen here, from 285 to 333, with particular importance around the 312 level, the control point.
If we go further down, the next area of real activity will be between approximately 245 and 255.
好。正如 George Tsoukalas 常说的,趋势是你的朋友,而在这种情况下,正如我们在 FedEx 股票上看到的,趋势是过去一个月下跌 10%。
Good. As George Tsoukalas always says, the trend is your friend, and in this case, the trend is down 10% over the past month, as we see in FedEx stock.
观察点
这个频道对 $FDX 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。