FICO因债务融资回购和激进定价而面临结构性风险，对价值投资者而言缺乏安全边际。
逐段跳播
我收到了很多关于FICO的评论，那么那里发生了什么？该股已下跌60%，而利润仍在增长40%。所以，让我们看看是否有价值，或者风险是否仍然存在。
I've received a lot of comments about FICO , so what's going on there? The stock has fallen by 60% while profits are still growing by 40%. So, let's see if there is value or if the risks still exist .
就在我准备这个的前一天，由于房利美和房地美使用了另一家积分提供商，该股下跌了16-17%。让我们快速看一下上次演示中的数字。一切看起来都非常好。收入增长了26%。积分收入增长了41%。
软件业务稳定，但平台业务仍增长66%。净利润增长了40%，每股收益令人惊讶。自由现金流很高，股票回购利用了低股价。
Just one day before I prepared this, the stock had dropped 16-17% due to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac using another points provider. Let's take a quick look at the numbers from the last presentation. Everything looks amazingly good. Revenue increased by 26%. Points revenue by 41%. The software is stable, but the platform is still growing by 66%. Net income rose by 40%, and earnings per share were astonishing. Free cash flow is high, and share buybacks are taking advantage of the low share price.
巨大的收入增长，尤其是在积分领域，他们正在提高向抵押贷款发行机构收取的数据价格。你可以看到过去几年这里收入的蓬勃发展，尤其是现在价格上涨，这推动了利润的增长，利润的增长远高于收入的增长。
Huge revenue growth, especially in the points sector where they are raising the prices of that data for mortgage issuers. You can see booming revenues here over the past years, especially now with the price increases, which are boosting profits that have risen much more than revenues.
发生了什么？嗯，价格大幅上涨。自2020年以来，该公司已将每积分价格提高了1800%，这太疯狂了。现在他们还翻倍了2026年的广告价格，将每积分成本从4美元提高到10美元以上。因此收入和利润增长。
what is going on? Well, there are huge price increases. Since 2020, the company has raised its prices by 1800% per point, which is insane. And now they have also doubled their advertised prices for 2026, increasing the cost per point from four to more than 10. Hence the growth in revenues and profits.
但如果他们提高价格50%，收入增长30%。所以，这损失了一些市场份额或抵押贷款交易减少。这是值得思考的事情。当你这样提高价格时，有替代方案，比如Vantage分数，价格不到一美元。
它正在占领你的市场。然而，人们仍然使用它。因为它被认为是安全的提供商。有良好的数据，因此一切都在改善；利润率在改善，自由现金流在改善，并接近每年10亿美元。
But if they raise prices by 50% and revenues increase by 30%. So, there is a loss of some market share or a decrease in mortgage transactions. This is something worth thinking about. When you raise prices like this, there are alternatives such as Vantage scores that are available for less than a dollar. It's taking over your market. However , people still use it. Because it is considered a secure provider. There is good data, and therefore everything is improving; Margins are improving, free cash flow is improving, and is approaching one billion annually.
然而，关于股价，他们正走向债务融资的回购，这对任何管理层来说都是非常大胆的举动。因为当你借钱回购，认为股票被低估时，如果你错了，你将永远陷入债务，如果股价进一步下跌，价值将被摧毁。这就是上周五发生的事情。
However, with regard to the share price, they are moving towards debt- financed buybacks , which is a very bold move for any management. Because when you borrow money to make buybacks thinking that the stock is undervalued, if you are wrong, you will be stuck in debt forever, and the value will be destroyed if the stock falls further. That's what happened last Friday.
所以，管理层有强烈的信念。然而，债务比率更高，回购是成功的，但有些人可能会说它们并不成功。如果公司永远持续增长并表现良好，那么回购将是好的。但如果存在风险，那么回购将不是一个好的选择。
So, there is a strong conviction on the part of the management. However, debt ratios are higher, and buybacks have been successful, but some might say they haven't . If the company continues to grow and perform well forever, then buybacks will be good. But if there is a risk, then buybacks will not be a good option.
接下来可能是这种情况最重要的描述，即这是一场“赌博”。管理层押注于用债务回购股票，激进地提高价格，并在不考虑竞争的情况下向客户施加越来越高的价格。我觉得有一种急于尽快完成事情的感觉，以便营业收入增长40%。
And here comes perhaps the most important description of this situation, which is that it is a "gamble". Management is betting on using debt to buy back shares, on raising prices aggressively, and on imposing higher and higher prices on customers without thinking about competition. I feel there is a rush to get things done as quickly as possible so that operating income grows by 40%.
此外，资产负债表变得负债累累。债务也在增加。然后这被用于回购股票。但管理层在这里表示，它为自己进行的回购感到自豪。也许现在股价进一步下跌，他们会重新进行回购操作。但他们现在将使用现金来偿还回购交易中使用的债务。他们可能会再次改变主意。我们拭目以待。
Also, the balance sheet became heavily indebted . Obligations are also increasing. This is then directed towards repurchasing shares. But management here says it is proud of the buybacks it has made. Perhaps now that the stock has fallen further, they will return to buyback operations. But they will now use the cash to pay off the debts they used in the buyback transactions. They might change their minds again. We'll see.
无论如何，如果你稍微看一下分析师的估计，他们仍然预测增长43%，然后随着时间的推移增长20%。如果发生这种情况，未来的市盈率将降至20，然后到2028年9月降至14。市盈率为14，这就是为什么大多数华尔街分析师建议买入，你可以看到目标价在1500到2000之间，但也有一位分析师认为下限为700。
In any case, if you look a little at the analysts’ estimates , they are still predicting 43 % growth, and then 20% growth over time. If that happens, the future price-to-earnings ratio will drop to 20, then to 14 by September 2028. The price-to- earnings ratio is 14, which is why most Wall Street analysts recommend buying, and you can see that the targets are between 1500 and 2000, but there is also one analyst who sees a lower limit at 700.
如果你看看最初发生的事情，当你看到股价下跌时，是的，现在的市盈率为27，相对于该股的历史来说相对便宜，但与其历史上一些最糟糕的时期相比，也不算太便宜。但当你以120的市盈率买入某物时，最好这些利润快速增长并显著增长。
因此，股价下跌首先可以解释为最初的估值过高，现在则是更现实的估值。
If you look at what happened initially, when you look at the stock's price drop, yes, it is now at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27, which is relatively cheap compared to the stock's history, but not too cheap compared to some of the worst times in its history. But when you buy something with a price-to- earnings ratio of 120, it's better that those profits grow quickly and significantly. Therefore , the decline in the share price can be explained first by the initial overvaluation, and now by a more realistic valuation.
这里的赌注是估值，比如说，将保持不变，收益将以30的市盈率增长。如果收益增长50%，你将在未来两年内赚取50%。
The bet here is that valuations, let's say, will stay the same, and earnings will grow at a price- to-earnings ratio of 30. If earnings rise by 50%, you will make 50% over the next two years.
然而，如果管理层在定价和回购方面过于激进，如果竞争对手真的能够提供更低的价格，也许不是每个人都会转换，但有些人会。当你开始失去市场份额时，就有风险，其他东西会慢慢出现取代你。尤其是现在有了人工智能、数据收集，一切都变得更快，这是可能的。
因此，这代表了永久性资本损失的风险，这是我们作为价值投资者不会参与的。
However, if management is overly aggressive about pricing and buybacks, and if competitors are genuinely able to offer lower prices, perhaps not everyone will switch, but some will . And when you start losing market share, there is a risk that something else will slowly emerge to replace you. Especially now with artificial intelligence, data collection, and everything getting faster, that's possible. Therefore, this represents a risk of permanent capital loss, which is something we, as value investors, do not engage in.
所以，当我将其与正方形进行比较，以及我们到目前为止讨论的，以及我们正在关注的，在投资方面，最好，比如说，拥有一些更安全的公司。在我的研究平台上你也有几个。我应该把它放在盒子的投注部分吗？这是非常高的风险。如果事情出错，没有安全边际。
So, when I compare that to the square, and what we've discussed so far, and what we're following, when it comes to investing, it's better, let's say, to own companies with a little more security . You also have a few of them on my research platform. Should I put it in the betting section of the box? This is a very high risk. There is no margin of safety if things go wrong.
对于FICO，市盈率为112，这对我来说只是这个市场的解释。预测市场正在蓬勃发展。股票市场，尤其是自疫情以来，一直被用作并被视为赌博赌场，人们可以从加密货币、芯片和人工智能中快速赚很多钱。我们现在处于投注的一方。
When it comes to FICO, and the price-to- earnings ratio of 112, that's just an explanation for this market to me. The prediction markets are booming. The stock market, especially since the pandemic, has been used and viewed as a gambling casino, where one can make a lot of money quickly from cryptocurrencies, chips, and artificial intelligence. We are now on the betting side of things.
是的，FICO，如果你看它，相对便宜。也许每股收益将达到60，那么这是可以接受的。那是15的市盈率。但是，即使你达到60然后缓慢增长，以人们支付的2400的价格，需要40年才能通过利润收回你的钱。
所以，公司现在有结构性风险。我们看看事情如何发展，但有些人对此疯狂，箭头受到了惩罚。它会重新评估吗？这只是目前没有人能回答的赌注。
Yes, FICO, if you look at it, is relatively cheap. Perhaps it will reach 60 as earnings per share, then it will be acceptable. That's a price- to-earnings ratio of 15. But, even if you get to 60 and then grow slowly, at the price of 2.4 thousand that people paid, it will take 40 years to get your money back through profits. So, the company now has structural risks. We'll see how things develop, but some people are going crazy over it, and the arrow has been punished. Will it be re-evaluated? This is just a bet that no one can answer right now .
这个频道对 $FICO 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。