FICO 是长期投资者的高信心买入标的，其强劲的基本面足以抵消市场主导地位被侵蚀的风险。
逐段跳播
自2026年初以来，Fair Isaac Corporation（FICO）的股价已下跌45%，原因是投资者对抵押贷款评级监管以及Vantage Score政策的重大转变感到担忧。
Shares of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) have fallen 45% since the beginning of 2026, due to investor concerns about mortgage rating regulations and the significant shift in Vantage Score policy .
此外，近期有新闻标题显示FICO正在将其业务范围扩展至联邦住房贷款（FHA）贷款机构，这引发了更多担忧，因为尽管这会支撑对其评分的依赖，却也限制了它的定价能力。
In addition, recent news headlines indicating that FICO is expanding its reach to federal housing loan (FHA) lenders have caused increased concerns, as while this will support reliance on it, it limits its pricing power.
所以，投资者在问我：FICO股价的这轮下跌或崩盘是否代表着一个买入机会？所以，尽管存在我在新闻标题中提到的那些风险，Vico的业务仍在蓬勃发展。即便在上个季度，营收增长也超过了20%。
So, investors are asking me: Does this decline or collapse in FICO stock represent a buying opportunity? So, despite those risks I mentioned in the headlines, Vico's business is still thriving.
Revenue growth was above 20% even in the last quarter.
因此，令投资者担忧的是公司的未来，而不仅仅是当下正在发生的事。投资者着眼于未来，关注那些可能限制公司对其强大市场份额主导地位的政策和监管变化。
Therefore, what worries investors is the future of the company, not just what is happening at the moment. Investors are looking to the future, to changes in policies and regulations that may limit the company's dominance over its strong market share .
过去十二个月，FICO的总营收达到24亿美元。这较2017年的约5亿美元有所增长。当然，FICO最为人熟知的是其FICO评分系统，贷款机构在决定是否发放住房贷款时会广泛使用这一系统。
FICO's total revenue reached $2.4 billion during the past twelve months. This represents an increase from about $500 million in 2017. FICO is, of course, best known for its FICO score system, which lenders use extensively when making decisions about granting home loans.
鉴于“Vico”评分的价格只占贷款机构向消费者发放贷款这一决策整体成本中相对较小的一部分，“Vico”多年来一直能够提价；投资者一直很欣赏这种定价能力，他们称之为相对垄断地位。
Given that the price of a "Vico" grade represents a relatively small part of the overall cost of a lender's decision to grant a loan to a consumer, "Vico" has been able to raise prices for many years ; Investors have appreciated this pricing power, which they call a relative monopoly position.
但这种强势地位近来已开始受到侵蚀，原因是我在引言中提到的那些政策变化。所以，FICO曾经对市场的那种强大掌控如今正开始减弱，而这就是FICO股价预计将在2026年下跌约50%的主要原因。
But this strong position has recently begun to erode due to the policy changes I mentioned in the introduction. So, that strong control that FICO had over the market is now beginning to weaken, and this is the main reason why FICO's stock is expected to fall by about 50% in 2026.
但说这是一家强大的公司都算是轻描淡写。我已经和大家分享了它过去十年出色的营收增长，但也要看看其利润率的扩张。过去十二个月，营业利润率已升至52%，而2017年时约为20%。
But to say that this is a strong company would be an understatement . I have shared with you the excellent revenue growth over the past decade, but also look at the expansion of profit margins.
Operating profit margins have risen to 52% over the past twelve months, compared to around 20% in 2017.
所以，FICO无疑正受益于这种强劲的市场形势，而且过去十年的大部分时间都是如此。除了营业利润率强劲扩张之外，公司的投入资本回报率也达到一流的56.5%，约为公司加权平均资本成本的五倍。
这是投入资本回报率（ROIC）以及投入资本回报率与加权平均资本成本（WACC）之比的精英级水平。
So, FICO is certainly benefiting from this strong market situation, and has been for most of the past decade. In addition to expanding strong operating profit margins, the company's return on invested capital was a first-class 56.5 %, approximately five times the company's weighted average cost of capital.
These are elite levels of return on invested capital (ROIC) and return on invested capital to weighted average cost of capital (WACC) ratios.
所以，正如我提到的，说这是一家优秀的公司，远远不足以形容它当之无愧的程度。
So, as I mentioned, saying this is an excellent company is a far understatement of what it certainly deserves.
鉴于这种主导性的表现，FICO股票在过去十年的大部分时间里一向以高估值乃至极高估值交易，而估值直到今年才降至较低水平。
Given this dominant performance, FICO stock has traditionally traded at high to extremely high valuations for most of the past decade, and valuations have only fallen to reduced levels this year.
截至录制本视频时，FICO股票的前瞻市盈率为17.5。按照这一估值指标衡量，这是该股很长时间以来交易的最低价格。
As of the time of recording this video, FICO stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5. This is the lowest price at which the stock has traded according to this valuation metric in a very long time.
所以，我在引言中提到的那些风险如今已反映在公司的估值中。你可以争论是否需要在它的估值中纳入更大的风险溢价，我愿意听取这些论点。我不会对这些论点关上大门，因为这件事极其重要。
So, those risks that I mentioned in the introduction are now reflected in the company's valuation. You can argue about whether a larger risk premium needs to be incorporated into its valuation, and I, you know, would be open to hearing those arguments.
I will not close the door on those arguments because the matter is extremely important.
FICO之所以能够展现出过去十年它同大家分享的那种出色表现，主要原因之一就是它对市场的主导性掌控。
One of the main reasons FICO has been able to demonstrate that level of excellent performance that it has shared with you over the past decade is its dominant grip on the market.
因此，如果这种掌控力开始松动、变得不再那么强，那么它实现那些利润率与营收增长数字的能力就会受到质疑。因此，考虑到这些风险，认为该股应当享有折价是合理的。
Therefore, if this grip begins to loosen and becomes less strong, its ability to achieve those profit margins and revenue growth figures will be called into question. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that the stock deserves a discount given those risks.
我今天还更新了对 FICO 的现金流折现计算，得出的结论是该公司每股价值 1,153 美元，而当前市场价格为每股 932 美元。因此，按照当前市场价格计算，我预计 FICO 股价在未来 12 到 18 个月内有可能上涨 24%。
I also updated my FICO discounted cash flow calculations today, and concluded that the company is worth $1,153 per share compared to the current market price of $932 per share .
Therefore, I am calculating a potential 24% rise for FICO shares over the next 12 to 18 months, given current market prices.
回答我在标题中提出的问题：这次暴跌是买入机会吗？我认为是。我将 Fair Isaac（即 FICO）股票评为买入机会，信心水平为高。这是我对任何企业所能持有的最高信心水平。评级从低到中再到高。
To answer the question I posed in the title , is this crash a buying opportunity? I think so . I have rated Fair Isaac or FICO stock as a buy opportunity with a high level of conviction.
This is the highest level of conviction I can have towards any business. The rating ranges from low to medium to high.
我高度确信，对长期投资者而言，这是一个绝佳的买入机会，可以借此承担那种风险，并承受该公司可能失去对市场的掌控力、以及这种松动可能对其营收造成影响的可能性。这就是你在这里承担的风险。我认为，承担这一风险能获得不错的潜在回报。
I am highly convinced that this is an excellent buying opportunity for long-term investors to absorb that risk, and to bear the possibility that the company will lose its grip on the market and the impact that such a relaxation could have on its revenues.
That is the risk you are taking here. I think you get a good potential reward for taking that risk.
这个频道对 $FICO 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。