$FIG

由于激进增长支出导致利润率侵蚀,且估值仍高于说话者DCF目标价,Figma并不值得买入。

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《Figma Stock Analysis: Buy or Sell?》
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA发布 2026-09-15 · 18 段内容
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18 段内容
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Figma 已连续三个季度实现营收增长加速。在最近一个季度,营收同比增长 48%,达到 3.7 亿美元。Figma 将此归因于公司 AI 增强型信用消费模式的高采用率。

Figma has reported three consecutive quarters of accelerated revenue growth. In the most recent, revenue accelerated 48% to 370 million compared to the same quarter last year. Figma attributes this to high adoption of the company's AI-enhanced credit consumption model.

展望未来,公司上调了全年剩余时间的营收展望,预计营收增长中值为 39%。不过,管理团队并未上调其盈利预期,他们告知投资者,尽管这会影响利润率,公司仍乐于投资于业务以推动营收增长、获取竞争优势,即便要以牺牲利润率为代价。

Looking forward, the company raised its revenue outlook for the rest of the full year, forecasting revenue growth at 39% at the midpoint. Still, the management team did not raise its expectations for profitability, informing investors that despite the impact on profit margins, the company is happy with investing in the business to grow revenue, gain competitive advantages, even at the expense of margins.

但这一切是否让 Figma 股票成为一个买入机会?让我们仔细看看并回答这个问题。

But does all of this make Figma stock a buying opportunity? Let's take a closer look and answer the question.

Figma 在提升营收方面做得非常出色,从 2024 年 1 月止的过去 12 个月的 5 亿美元,增长到最近一个过去 12 个月期间的 12.8 亿美元。

Figma has done an excellent job increasing revenue from 500 million in the trailing 12 months of January of 2024 up to 1.28 billion in the most recent trailing 12-month period.

正如我最近提到的,公司的营收增长率超过了 40%。因此,Figma 的营收增长速度是 Adobe 的三倍以上。当然,鉴于它是一家规模小得多的企业,它是从一个小得多的基数上增长。

As I mentioned more recently, the company's revenue growth rate exceeded 40% So, Figma is growing revenue at more than three X the rate of Adobe. Of course, given it's a much smaller business, so it's growing from a much smaller base.

不过,它正在从 Adobe 等竞争对手手中夺取市场份额,如果它继续保持这一速度,对投资者来说将是重大利好。但正如我在视频开头提到的,这是以牺牲利润率为代价的。

Still, it's gaining market share against competitors like Adobe, and if it continues at this rate, it would be great news for investors. But as I mentioned in the introduction of the video, it's coming at the expense of margins.

Figma 并没有那样做。事实上,正如我提到的,他们正在推动营收增长,连续三个季度营收增长加速,并预计全年营收增长 40%。所以,营收增长非常出色,但这是以牺牲利润率为代价的。

Figma is not doing that. They're growing revenue, in fact, as I mentioned, three consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue growth and forecasting revenue growth of 40% for the full year.

So, revenue growth is excellent, but it's coming at the expense of margins.

而当你查看公司经营性现金流与销售额的比率时,该比率已大幅下降。在截至 2025 年 11 月的 12 个月中,这一数字为 30%,或接近 30%,而在过去 12 个月期间,它已一路降至 19.5%。

And when you look at the company's cash flow from operations to sales ratio, that's dropped considerably. This figure was 30% or nearly 30% in the 12 months ended November of 2025, and that's dropped all the way down to 19 and 1/2% over the trailing 12-month period.

鉴于管理团队对全财年以牺牲利润率为代价实现营收增长的预测,如果这一利润率继续下降,我不会感到意外。Figma 正在这样做。他们正在积极地这样做,并且正在夺取市场份额。

And given the management team's forecast for revenue growth at the expense of margins for the full fiscal year, it wouldn't surprise me if this margin continues falling. And Figma is doing that.

They're doing that aggressively, and they are gaining market share.

与经营性现金流与销售额利润率下降类似,公司的投入资本回报率也在下降。在过去 12 个月期间,它骤降至 -104%。

Similar to declining cash flow from operations to sales margins, the company's returns on invested capital are dropping as well. Over the trailing 12-month period, it collapsed to -104%.

所以,这看起来像是一家以牺牲利润率为代价、积极投资于增长的企业。因此,这让我觉得其营收增长没那么令人印象深刻。

So, this looked like business that's investing aggressively in growth at the expense of margins. And so, it makes the revenue growth look less impressive to me.

我喜欢看到那些在营收增长的同时利润率也在改善的企业。即使利润率是负的,只要它们在改善,对我来说就是一个积极信号。

I like to see businesses that are growing revenue while improving margins. Even if the margins are negative, if they're improving, that's a positive signal to me.

所以,投资者看起来对这家企业的看法和我一样。当我查看了利润率状况以及该类别的下滑后,我对营收增长就没那么印象深刻了。而 Figma 股价在 2026 年年初至今已下跌 38%。

因此,鉴于 Figma 的增长是以牺牲利润率为代价的,投资者总体上对其增长并不买账。

So, investors look like they feel the same way about this business as I do. I was not as impressed with the revenue growth once I looked at the margin profile and the declines in that category.

And Figma stock is down 38% year-to-date in 2026. So, investors by and large are not impressed with Figma's growth given that it's coming at the expense of margins.

同样,按远期市盈率衡量,估值也已下降。Figma 目前的远期市盈率为 65,按这一估值指标来看,这接近该企业交易过的最低水平。自 2026 年 4 月左右以来,它一直在这个水平交易。

And similarly, the valuation has dropped when measuring on a forward price-to-earnings basis. Figma is now trading at a forward price-to-earnings of 65, which is near the lowest this business has traded for according to this valuation metric.

It's been trading at these levels since about April of 2026.

估值大幅下降,并且自 2026 年 4 月以来,按其历史来看一直处于便宜或相对便宜的水平。

The valuation dropped considerably and has remained cheap or relatively cheap according to its history since April of 2026.

所以,看起来我上一次评估这家公司时,告诉投资者它看起来并不是一个买入机会,这个判断是正确的。我上一次对这家公司的评估是在2026年3月20日,当时我告诉投资者,在那些价位上它看起来并不太有吸引力。

So, it looks like the last time I evaluated the company, I made a correct decision in informing investors that it did not look like a buying opportunity. And my last evaluation of the business came on March 20th, 2026, when I informed investors that it didn't look very attractive at those prices.

我还用我的现金流折现模型更新了对Figma的估值,得出的结论是这家公司价值16.25美元。截至今天收盘,它的股价为23.20美元。

I also updated my valuation for Figma using my discounted cash flow model, and I came to the conclusion that the business is worth $16.25. As of today's market close, it was trading at $23.20.

所以,尽管股价出现下跌,Figma股票在回调中看起来仍然不是一个有吸引力的买入机会。所以,我将重申对Figma股票的评级,告诉投资者它看起来并不是一个有吸引力的机会。我会等待股价进一步下跌,或者等待公司利润率的拐点出现,再考虑将该股上调为买入机会。

So, despite the drop off in share price, Figma stock still does not look like an attractive buying opportunity on the dip. So, I will be reiterating my ranking for Figma stock, informing investors that it doesn't look like an attractive opportunity.

I would wait for a further dip in the share price, or I would wait for an inflection point in the company's profit margins to consider upgrading the stock to a buying opportunity.

观察点

利润率的拐点或股价的进一步下跌
利润率改善或股价大幅下跌
未来几个季度财报
将支持将该股上调至买入;利润率持续下滑则会削弱持有该股的理由

这个频道对 $FIG 的历次判断

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-15看跌本条
Figma 已连续三个季度实现营收增长加速。在最近一个季度,营收同比增长 48%,达到 3.7 亿美元。
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