FLO基本面恶化（销售额-4%，净利润-1700万美元），高债务使其尽管现金流为正，仍是糟糕的投资。
逐段跳播
接下来是Flower Foods。它已经被评为坏公司板块中的红色。过去几个月我们对此讨论得更多一些。股息支付被削减，市盈率变得更差，股价表现也更差。我们在《食品品牌分析》视频中讨论过这一点。
我的编辑会把所有视频链接放在下面的描述中。所有这些品牌都在受苦。减肥药可能会略微减少需求。供应巨大，竞争激烈，利润率低，一切都在下滑。有一种普遍说法认为通用磨坊可能已经触底。是的，但这完全取决于未来的盈利、下个季度和明年，情况可能会变糟。
看看Flower Foods，上个季度净销售额下降了4%。这太可怕了。净利润减少了1700万。他们甚至不给出百分比，因为那是什么？下降了30%。这太可怕了。这是一个糟糕的情况。
如果你看销售，它们很糟糕。即使提价，销量也令人震惊。因此，这个业务存在重大问题。他们不久前做了一笔愚蠢的收购，并承担了大量债务。当你承担大量债务时，你就有需要减值的无形资产。至少减去10亿的减值损失，股东权益就没了。
什么都没剩下，债券持有人接管公司。这就是目前的情况。我快速看了一下现金流。那里仍然是正的。当我在这里计算时，他们可能达到2亿的年现金流，而市值是1.5，这很有趣，但随着销售下降和业务放缓，现金流可能救不了你。
所以，这些数字很大，但它们在显著下降。这足以偿还债务吗？如果他们开始，我不知道，每年偿还1亿债务，需要8年才能达到8亿。到那时，鉴于当前的趋势，他们需要奇迹才能复苏，因为市场就是这样；三年后现金流可能已经只有1亿，意味着没有股息，只有还债。
再次，问题是，好吧，接下来是什么？这里要记住的一点是，这在上升。因此，对资本的需求更大。人们要求更高的回报。这与五年前不同，当时是2%或1%。现在接近5%，人们说，好吧，我可以冒险投资Flower Foods，它的现金流在下降，现在看起来是15%，但三年后可能是7%，然后你把7%与有保证的4%或5%比较，你会说，好吧，这可能没那么有趣。
因此，我将不再关注它。这仍然是一场赌博，但可能带来好结果的坏赌博。业务本身没有什么让我说：“好吧，无论如何这都会救他。”为了获得50%或100%的涨幅而失去一切，根本不聪明。
Next, we have Flower Foods. It has already been rated red in the bad companies sector . We've discussed this a little more over the past few months. Dividend payouts have been cut, the price-to-earnings ratio is getting worse, and stock performance is getting worse. We discussed this in our Food Brands Analysis video . My editor will put all the video links in the description below. And all these brands are suffering. Weight loss drugs may reduce demand slightly. Huge supply, competition, low profit margins, and everything is declining. There was a common saying that General Mills had probably hit rock bottom. Yes, but it all depends on future earnings, the next quarter, and next year, where things could get bad. Looking at Flower Foods, in the last quarter, net sales fell by 4%. This is horrific. Net income decreased by 17 million. They don't even put percentages, because what is that? A decrease of 30%. This is horrific. This is a bad situation. If you look at the sales, they are bad. Even with the price increases, sales volumes are appalling. Therefore, there are major problems in this business. They made a stupid acquisition a while ago, and incurred a lot of debt. When you incur a lot of debt, you have tangible assets that need to be devalued . Subtract at least one billion in impairment losses, and that's where shareholders' rights are lost . Nothing remains , and the bondholders take over the company. This is the current situation. I took a quick look at the cash flows. It's still positive there. When I do the math here , they're likely to reach 200 million in annual cash flows compared to a market value of 1.5, which is interesting, but with sales declining and business slowing, the cash flows may not save you . So, these numbers are huge, but they are declining significantly. Is it enough to pay off the debts ? If they start, I don't know, with debt payments of 100 million, it will take 8 years to get to 800 million. By that time, given the prevailing trend, they need a miracle to recover because the market is simply like this; cash flows could already be 100 million in three years, meaning no dividends, just debt repayment. Again , the question is, okay, what's next? One thing to keep in mind here is that this is on the rise. Therefore, there is a greater need for capital. People demand a higher return on things . It was not the same as it was five years ago, at 2% or 1%. Now it's closer to five, and people are saying, well, I can take a risk with Flower Foods with its decreasing cash flows that look like 15% now, but could be 7% in three years, and then you compare the seven with the guaranteed four or five percent, and you say, well, it may not be that interesting . Therefore, I will no longer follow her. It remains a gamble, but a bad gamble that may yield good results. There is nothing inherent in the business that makes me say, "Okay, this will save him no matter what." Losing everything to gain a 50% or 100% increase is simply not smart .
这个频道对 $FLO 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。