FLS具有强劲的中期形态结构，上行潜力至253，但目前面临相互矛盾的信号以及因动量滚动而带来的即时下行风险。
逐段跳播
好的，所以它们是FLS Intel。
Okay, so they're FLS Intel.
Claude问到了FLS的中期时间框架。让我们去看一下那个。
Claude asked about FLS intermediate time frame. Let's go take a look at that one.
所以，对于FLS的中期时间框架，我将看月线、周线和日线。所以，我们将从月线开始。我会比另一个快得多地做这个，那个我真正逐步走完整个过程。但我们有正面的条件，强劲的动能，强劲的向上格局结构。
只是要尝试了解任何关键水平。我的意思是，最近这个有一个惊人的走势，非常非常强劲，一路向上。仅基于目前的月线图，我们已经触及了一些上方的关键标记。在更长期的基础上，可能有一些空间可以上升到大约253。
非常强劲，整体格局结构目前如此。所以，我会说，253现在在考虑范围内。
So, with FLS intermediate time frame, I'm going to look at monthly, weekly, and daily. And so, we'll start off with the the monthly. I'm going to do this one uh much faster than the other one where I really step through the sort of the entire process. But we have positive conditions, strong momentum, strong pattern structure to the upside. Just going to look at try to get a sense of any key levels. I mean, recently this one's had an amazing move, you know, very, very strong all the way through. Just based off of the monthly chart at this point, we've, you know, we've hit some key markers on the upside. There could be some room here to get up to around 253 uh on a longer term basis. Very strong, uh, overall pattern structure at this time. So, I would say that, you know, 253 is in play right now.
周线图，我目前没有对这个做周期分析，但周线图显然非常正面，所以仅从大局来看非常正面，但同样，你必须超越方向性偏向，然后还要考虑我现在关注的前景时期是什么，以及我是否在看一个新仓位，如果我在看一个新仓位，那么是多少天、几周、几个月，对于像这样的东西，这很重要，因为它已经移动到了一个我们现在进入一些阻力区域的地方，但总体格局是强劲的，需要相当多的技术损害才能改变那个图景。
我的意思是，相当显著。你知道，在这一点上，对我来说，第一个警告可能是周线收盘。所以，我会在183、184附近设置一个警报。是的，我会说184。那将是我在这里设置警报的地方。如果它收盘低于那里，那么很有可能这里可能已经出现了一个峰值，总体上在更中期的时间框架内。
weekly chart and I don't I don't have the cycle analysis done on this one at the moment but weekly chart obviously very positive so just from looking at the bigger picture very positive but again you have to go beyond just directional bias to then also think about what's that outlook period that I'm looking at right now and am I looking at a new position if I'm looking at a new position for how how how many days weeks months uh with something like This is important because it has moved up to a place where we're now into some some resistance zones, but overall the pattern is strong and it would take, you know, a good amount of technical damage to to change that picture. I mean, quite significant. You know, at this point, we're probably talking about the first warning for for me would be a weekly close. So, I'd be setting an alert around 183, 184. Yeah, I would say 184. That would be where I would set an alert here. If it closed below there, then there's a good chance that there could be a a peak here that has uh occurred overall uh in a more of an intermediate time frame.
目前它确实非常突出。再快速检查一下。还不错。是的，看起来可以。所以，我认为这显然是——你可以看到，一旦我们在这里形成这个低点，走势非常强劲，基本上是在盘整，形成了一个底部，然后在真正震荡之后，在周期后期启动，在这里突破了周期高点，高于14175，然后起飞，现在将形成另一个右移。
所以，我们正进入第一个我称之为中期时间框架的目标区域。我们达到了该目标区域内的22450。因此，我们开始看到一些卖压出现并不令人意外。我会关注24345，如果继续上行，可能会看到更多卖压，然后出现回调。
再次，我提到了下行方面我关注的水平。所以，这将是这里的次要摆动低点，那将是我关注的第一个。关键水平将是周线收盘低于197或187。这些将警告我，很可能出现一个更大的中期顶部。然后我必须监控那次回调，确保形态没有受到整体技术损害，然后看看我们处于什么位置，为下一步做准备。
但一旦我们突破了这个之前的周期高点，这确实是一笔非常好的交易。得到了不错的回调。这些是你想要获得下一笔交易机会的地方，对吧？所以突破，然后当你放大到其他时间框架时，你开始得到你可以在此基础上构建的摆动。
It's really jumping out at the moment. One more quick check. It's not bad. Yeah, that looks okay. So, I would say that this is obviously you can you can see this is very strong once we made this low here. basically consolidated, created a base, and then took off late in in this cycle after really chopping around, made a a cycle breakout here, you know, above 14175 and took off and now is going to make another right-hand translation. So, we're coming into the first I would call this target zone uh on the intermediate time frame. You know, we reached that 22450 inside of this target zone. So, it's not surprising that we're starting to get some um some some selling coming in. I'd watch that uh 24345 if we were to continue on the upside to probably see some more selling and then you get a pullback. And again, I mentioned what that level was on the downside that I'd pay attention to. So, this would be my, you know, minor swing low here. That would be the first one for me to watch. And the key levels would be uh a close below that 197 on a weekly basis or 187. Those would warn me that there's a good chance of a a larger intermediate type peak could be in place. And then I'd have to monitor that that pullback, make sure there was no overall technical damage done to the pattern and then see where we are where we are for that next. But this has been really a really nice trade once we broke out, you know, above this prior cycle peak over here. Got a nice pullback. These are this is where you want to get your opportunity for the next trade, right? So the breakout and then as you zoom in on the other time frames, you start to get your swings that you can you can build off of.
好的，我们也要看FLS。所以我对CRWD做了深入分析。Claude在找FLS。我们来看FLS。FLS在这个突破上形成了非常好的形态。看，这就是你要找的那种形态。你有一个持续数年的长期突破。
然后出现回调。回调没有造成技术性破坏。所以，你会预期有回调，对吧？所以，我们试图理解主导趋势中的主导趋势。回调何时结束，新机会何时开始？所以，这就是为什么多时间框架分析、周期分析如此有助于把握整体形态结构。
我的主导形态结构是什么？动能何时重新启动？如果我画一个回撤线来看这次修正有多深，它跌到了50到61.8，略低于该区域。对我来说没有收在其下方。如果它收在这些关键水平下方，那就更有意义。
我们在这里得到测试。买家出现，然后你进入更短的时间框架开始看到你的参与点在哪里。但我确信Claude想了解我们现在有什么。所以，现在月度图在反转侦察上趋于平缓，就月度关键水平而言。
它跌到了50%区域。所以现在我们只是在跟踪盘整这个更大的走势，它进入了某些关键的斐波那契扩展区域，现在我们在其中间盘整，月度动能横盘并略微下行。所以我们可以看看周线图。我的意思是，目前看起来非常震荡，盘整从50到92的大幅走势，回调，实际上形成了某种三角旗或旗形形态，如果你看的话。
我要在这里画几条趋势线。是的，这不是典型的传统旗形形态。目前是看涨配置。让我们看看它试图到达上沿，现在正在回调。从中期时间框架来看，今天的支撑或过去一周的支撑，我们进入了38.2到50%区域。
我不希望看到周线收盘低于61.8，那将是一个警告。然后如果周线收盘低于78，那将……目前它基本与那条趋势线对齐。如果你收在其下方，那可能为更深的抛售打开大门，就整体形态而言。上次它在这里回调时，我们到了50%然后反弹。
我们还未能创出新高。所以，我们被困在这个区间内。如果我们跌破，周线收盘低于78.6，突破那条趋势线，那么存在一些风险，可能打开大门，可能会跌破这个50%。你可以看到它今天回来了，如提到的，这个前高，对吧？
回调并多次测试了这里，这里。所以，这是一个关键支撑区域。否则，你可能面临跌至58的风险。然后，继续。你转到日线图，可以看到反转侦察已经下行，SMI已经下行。所以目前直接的价格路径是向下的，动能向下。
所以，那么问题是我如果是中期时间框架的交易者，我们何时开始看到转折？如果我对其看涨，那么我需要……对我来说，我在等待看到一定量的价格行为和动能转回我感兴趣的方向。所以，如果我的头寸偏向是多头，那么我想确保我有一些价格行为、价格接受度和一些动能回到我的方向。
目前不是。我们有我关注的SMI和反转侦察、细带，这些已经减弱。而且存在下行风险。如果我快速从高点画到低点，它必须回到比如79上方，并在日线基础上收在其上方，才能阻止现在已经开始的这种技术性破坏，因为我们有一个被违反的次要摆动低点。
如果我们今天收在其下方，那是负面的。你知道，这些只是作为交易者，你必须有一个方法论告诉你，我的偏向是什么，我倾向于哪一边，我什么时候有触发信号告诉我看某个东西作为感兴趣方向的延续，我的分析何时失效。
所以所有这些都很重要，目前从多头方面来看，这个没有显示出正确的迹象，至少就即时迹象而言，没有显示出多头迹象。在下行方面，如果我……如果我是交易者，从中期时间框架来看，你可以看到我们有冲突，对吧？
我们被困在那个区间内，现在我们在收缩。所以如果我转到2小时图，我甚至得到更多的X光透视放大视图，你可以看到我们有一个跌破，反转侦察，2小时细带已经转为负值。我们试图在2小时细带内反弹，实际上在下跌方面得到了一个非常好的日内交易或短期交易，这是基于反转侦察下行的事实。
对吧？反转侦察下行。我们得到……下行，然后2小时出现跌破，这是你的触发信号，SMI跌破。但这一切都在一个更中性的范围内，整体中性，甚至略微看涨。但是，当动能再次在月度上下行时，你只是有很多冲突。
所以你在上行方面完成了一个走势，现在多头和空头在不同时间框架之间展开战斗。目前空头在较短时间框架内占优，因为你有了那个次要跌破，2小时下行，所以如果我是一个短期时间框架的波段交易者，我会一直在关注失败，对吧？
所以这是一个快速下行，可能也到了38.2。退出那个，然后你关注下一个机会。细带PO触发负值。但你必须关注多头在这个中重新活跃。但目前，对我来说下行风险，Claude，运行
All right, we got to do FLS, too. So, I did a real deep dive there into CRWD. Claude was looking for FLS. Let's go to FLS. LS. So, FLS really great pattern here that was created on this breakout. See, these are the kind of patterns you want to look for. You have a a long-term breakout going back several years. You get a pullback. the pullback doesn't do technical damage. So, you're going to expect that you have pullbacks, right? So, we're trying to understand the dominant trend within the dominant trend. When does the pullback end and the new opportunity begin? So, that's why multiple time frame analysis, cycle analysis is so helpful uh to to try to get a feel for overall pattern structure. What's my dominant pattern structure? When does the momentum kick back in? And if I do a retracement draw to see how deep this correction got it got, you know, down into that 50 to 61.8 just a little bit below it. Didn't close below for me. I if it closes below these key levels, that's more meaningful. We get a test in there. The buyers come out and then you go into the shorter duration time frames to start seeing where your participation can can be. Uh but I'm sure Claude's looking wanting to understand what do we have right now. So, right now we had the the monthly you can see is flattening out on the reversal scout here uh in terms of a key level off the monthly. It got down in that 50%. So right now we're just tracking consolidating uh this larger move that you know came into some some key fib extension zones and now we're just consolidating in in the middle of it with the moment uh monthly momentum going sideways rolling over slightly. So we can take a look at the weekly weekly chart. I mean this looks very very choppy at the moment consolidating that big move that it had from 50 up to 92 pulling pulling back you know really creating sort of a pennet or a flag situation right now if you look at it you know I'm going to draw a couple different trend trend draws here. Yeah, this is a really not, you know, typical traditional kind of pen and flag pattern here. Bullishly configured at the moment. Uh let's see which way it it it tried to get to the top end here, pulling back right now. And from an intermediate time frame basis, you know, where the supports today or this past week, we got into the 38.2 to the 50%. I don't want to see it on a weekly basis close below the 61.8, that would be a warning. And then if we get the weekly close below the 78, you know, that would right now it's pretty much in alignment with that trend line. And if you close below there, that could open up the door to some deeper selling uh you know, on the overall pattern here. You know, the last time it pulled back here, we got to the 50% rallied. We're not able to get make new highs yet. So, we're stuck in this range. And if we break below, have a weekly close below that 70 78.6 six break that trend. You know, there's there's some risk then that opens up the door, you know, to probably get below this 50%. Uh you can see it came back as mentioned today, this prior peak, right? Pulled back and tested this multiple times now here, here. So, this is a key support area. Otherwise, you likely have risked to fall the way to 58. Um then, you know, keep going. You go over to your daily chart and you can see that it's the reversal scouts rolled over, SMI's rolled over. So right now the immediate price path is down, you know, the momentum down. Um, so then it's a matter of if I'm an intermediate time frame trader, when do we start to see this turn? If I'm bullish on it, you know, then I'm um needing to for for me it's I'm I'm waiting to see some amount of price action and momentum turned back in the direction I have an interest in having my position bias. So, if my position bias is long, then I want to make sure that I have some price action and price acceptance and and some momentum that's back in my direction. Right now, it's not. you know, we have what I look at in terms of SMI and reversal scout, slim ribbon, you know, these have weakened. Uh, and there's some risk to the downside. If I do a quick draw from highs to lows, you know, it's got to get it back above say 79 and close above there on a daily basis to to sort of stop the uh technical damage that is started right now because we have a minor swing low that was violated. And if we close today below that that's negative. You know these are just as a trader you have to have a methodology that tells you again what's you know what's my bias which way do I lean you know when when do I have a trigger that tells me to look at something to as a continuation in the direction of interest you know when does my analysis get invalidated. So all those things are important and right now on the long side this one is not showing the proper signs. um in terms of immediate signs at least of of a of a long side and on the downside if I'm you know if I was a trader it's not on the on the intermediate time frame basis you can see that we have we had conflict right we're stuck in inside of that range right now we're trying we're contracting though so if I go to the 2-hour I even get a more of a x-ray vision zoomed in look you can see that we had a breakdown reversal scout the 2hour slim ribbon had gone negative. We tried to rally inside of the 2-hour slim ribbon and actually got a really nice intraday trade or near-term trade on the downside that set up as a part of the fact that the reversal scout rolled over. Right? Reversal scout rolls over. We get a uh rolls over then you have a breakdown in the 2hour which is your your trigger SMI breaks down. But this is all within the confines of something that is you know more neutral overall neutral in the bigger picture even slightly bullish. Uh but you know when you have momentum that is rolling over in the monthly again you just have a lot of conflict. So you had a move that was accomplished on the upside and now you have a battle going on between the bulls and the bears and different time frames. And then right now the bears are winning uh in the shorter duration time frame because you had that minor breakdown and you got 2 hours rolled over and so if I'm a you know a swing trader in the near-term time frame I would have been watching for failure right so I mean this is a quick move lower maybe did the 38.2 too. Get out of that and then you're watching for the next opportunity. The slim ribbon PO fires negative. Uh but you have to be watching for the the bulls to come back to life uh in this one. But right now, you know, the downside risk to me, Claude, runs
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $FLS 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。