Shift4 是一家估值便宜、垂直整合能力强且管理层优秀的公司,支付板块近期的暴跌拖累了其股价。
逐段跳播
说到Shift4,它的股票代码是Four(FOUR)。其实他的Q2(Q2)那封信是加进去的。因为价值投资者很多朋友多年来都在谈论Shift 4。
With Shift4 Talking. Its ticker is Four (FOUR). I Actually his Q2 ( Q2) The letter is added. Because value Investor Many friends For years I About Shift 4 They are saying.
我最近几天也一直在关注Shift 4多年——我把它留着了。她Q2那封信里关于Shift 4大约25页,是一部杰作,里面有背景,包括估值,信息量很大。非常有趣、很不错的一家公司,很棒。安排。
Me too in the last few days Shift 4 for years- Keep an eye on it. I left it. Her In Q2 letter Shift 4 About 25 Page one Masterpiece There is work, Where it is Background , including valuation There is a lot of information.
Very Interesting and Nice one Company, Great. Arrangement.
我的意思是,你看,随你怎么选。拿吧。这是一家便宜的公司。这里面有股票回购。管理层也有一些问题,因为他们把目标撤回了。
I mean, look, Your Choose as you like. Take it. This is a Cheap Company. In this Share Buyback There is. Management Something about There are also questions, Because they Their Target Withdrawal Done.
他们做了类似那样的事。做了收购,这个播客里有人准备时间时我听人说过,其中一些收购就像是在自断手脚。不过,就收购而言,他们的历史相当不错。
They are something like that. Acquisition Did that, this Podcasts Preparation Time for someone I heard it said, Some of them The acquisition was On their own feet To kill with an axe Like.
However, Acquisition In case Their history Pretty good.
便宜的公司,配置,支付板块的破坏已经完成了,就像这样。
Cheap Company, Allocation, Payment Sector destruction It's done, like this.
Andrew,今天我们来说说那家公司,就是Shift4(Shift4)。它的股票代码是four,给你。这家公司我要给你解释一下,Dev,但这家公司吸引了很多价值投资者,而你在第二封信里的描述,是我见过最好的分析。
Andrew, today We are that The company Let's talk about That is the shift. Four (Shift4). Of The ticker is four, For you. This The company I you To explain Dev, but this A lot of value Investors Attracted And yours Second Marginal In the letter that The description was, The best I've ever seen. Analysis That's it.
Shift4是什么?他们为什么这么有趣?但对那些不熟悉的人来说,我说的是Shift4,它是一家垂直整合的支付处理商。
What is shift four? Why are they so Interesting? But those who Not familiar, For them I'm talking about shift four. is a Vertically Integrated Payment Processor.
具体来说,其中有一些强势板块,其中之一是餐饮,在美国他们仅次于Toast,是第二大餐饮POS服务提供商。
and Specifically, Some of them Strong sector There is, one of which It is Restaurant, Where In the United States Right after the toast They are second. The largest Restaurant POS Service Provider.
因为像Toast这样的公司没有原创产品,Shift4基本上是各种东西的奇怪组合,我想就是这样。这种东西是它们在这个领域里反复会看到的。
Because of toast Like one of them No original product, Shift Four is basically Various One of the things Strange Combination, R I think this is it. Such a thing Which is all of them Repeatedly in the field We'll see.
我认为,围绕Shift4有这么多争议和讨论,这是两个方向所在。不过一个原因是,他们是一家垂直整合的支付处理商。
I think, With Shift4 So much controversy and Discussion two This is the direction to be in. One reason, however. They are one. Vertically Integrated Payment Processor.
有几个非常强的垂直领域或板块。餐饮是其中之一。酒店是另一个,他们在那里用软件和其他技术为美国40%的酒店提供服务。
Several of them Very Strong Vertical Or there is a sector. The restaurant is One. Hotel Here is another one, Where they Software and Other Technology United States 40% to hotels Serves.
体育场馆和活动场地是另一个,他们在那里作为75%的职业体育场馆支付处理商运作。最近,奢侈品零售业务是他们涉足的垂直领域之一,这看起来可能有点奇怪。他们为什么要进入这个领域?我们做了这件事。
Stadium and Event venue Here is another one, Where they are 75% Professional Sports Venue Payment Processor Works as . Um, and Recently, Luxurious Retail business One of them Vertical There is, which A bit strange It may seem And why are they doing this? Entry into the sector We did it.
我可以讨论一下。不过,与Global Payments、Fiserv或Adyen这样的大型支付处理商相比,Shift 4有些不同;与他们相比,2500亿的支付交易量非常小,而且在某些特定领域,他们确实有深度参与。
To discuss I can. However, Global Payments or Fiserv or Adyen Big payments like Processors Shift 4 in comparison A little different; 250 billion Payment Volume Compared to them Very small and Specific In some sectors Their depth Attendance Yes, we are.
大家好,Shift 4。我们会讨论估值、所有垂直领域以及你们想谈的任何内容。我再次建议大家读一读那封信。他们有着悠久的历史,创始人兼CEO Kishore在这个年纪创办了这项业务,所以你们会在那里找到他们的历史、所有垂直领域以及一切。但我们会谈的,我会讲到这些。
Hey guys, shift 4. And we Valuation, all Vertical And whatever you want. With that We will discuss. And I again The letter to everyone Reading suggestions Dev. Their Long history There is, when Founder and CEO Kishore This business at this age Started, So you them History, all Vertical And everything.
You will find there, But we do. I will talk about it.
支付板块总体上曾是价值投资者关注的中心,而过去一年里,长期以来它已经成了投资者的坟场。而这不仅仅是因为投资者。我当时在做准备;CFO一周前在Goldman的会议上,最后他说:“我们的资本配置,或者说我们的股价,在我们看来是一份礼物。”
Payment sector In general Value Investors Attention Was in the center And the last year For a long time Investor For this to be Value Investors At the cemetery It has become. And this is just Investors Not for that.
I Its Preparation I was taking; CFO is one Week ago Goldman At the conference was and At the very end He was saying, " Our capital Allocation or Our Share price In our opinion A gift."
但随后他还详细说道:“尽管整个支付板块已经崩塌,我们仍有能力留住经常性收入和客户。”所以,我想从高层次开始。支付板块已经崩塌,Shift 4也崩塌了,它已经下跌了。
But then He also Details Says that, " Repetitive Income and customers To hold To have the ability Despite Overall Payment sector "It's collapsed." So , I High level To start with I want.
Payment The shaft has collapsed, Shift 4 also collapsed. It has fallen.
你的论点关键是在Shift 4具体上,还是Shift 4?你是在押注整个支付板块吗?我理解这两者都有一点,不过,因为支付板块崩塌,跌幅有多大影响,以及作为一名价值投资者你是什么?Shiftfork是否是一个独特的机会?
Your Thesis Key Shift 4 For Specific, Or shift 4? Through you Overall Payment sector Are you betting on? I understand that this Both a little, However, payment Sector collapse Because of reading How much impact has fallen and one Value Investor What are you as? Shiftfork A unique As an opportunity See?
是的。这是个很好的问题。我认为ShiftFore是整个支付系统崩塌了。这就是解读。
Yes. This A great one Question. I I think ShiftFore Overall for Payment The system collapsed. That was the reading.
原因之一,导致18个月前股价还是120,现在它已经跌到原来的三分之一。所以如果我稍微回顾一下,因为正如他们所说,不是吗?价格情绪受影响有多大就多大,仅此而已,不可能更多。
The reasons One, which results in 18 months ago that Share price It was 120, now it is One of his- In thirds It has come down. So if I A little behind Looking back, Because they As it says, so No?
Price Sentiment As much as affected Do it, nothing else. It can't.
当然是这样。反过来也成立。没错。不过站在2026年的今天,很容易说:“哦,支付板块太恶心了。”但这并没有过去多久。当你回头看时,你会发现,这些公司也许并不受所有人喜爱,但它们的价格是合理的,这没问题,而且对它们的预期也相当高。
and Of course it is. The opposite too. True. However In 2026 It stands today. It's easy to say, "Oh, The payment section "Very disgusting." But very It hasn't been long. When you are behind You will see, This Companies Maybe everyone Was not beloved, But their The price is fair.
It was okay and About them Expectations too It was quite high.
我认为,由于行业特定的某些情况,整个支付板块受到了一个负面冲击。
I think Industry- Specific Something Situation Because of the whole Payment sector One above Negative It has had an impact.
Fiserv的灾难以及关于透明度和报告的一些争论,尽管一切都没有公开,但影响已经产生了。而且我认为,尤其是对ShiftFore来说,无论出于什么原因,整个支付板块的影响已经产生了。
Fiserv Disaster and Transparency and Reporting Regarding About some things The debates that It happened, although Everything In public They didn't come. Influence on it It's gone. and I think Especially ShiftFore For, it is any For one reason, the whole Payment sector Influence on It's gone.
我对ShiftFore这件事比其他人更了解,但首先,由于受损的支付板块,这次软件板块衰退的影响是全面的。该板块进一步下跌了。
I ShiftFore The matter Than others I understand more, But first Since Damaged Payment sector On this Software Sector recession The effect is complete. The sector is further Lower down Gave.
这确实令人困惑,因为在我看来,如果我们谈论的是像许多软件公司那样,看到这种集成支付的思路。ShiftFore在这种情况下是完全基于软件的支付交易量。老式支付处理商则不是这样。
This Really Confusing Because of me In sight, if We are something like that. Let's talk where Many Software There is, this Integrated Payment See the idea. . ShiftFore In this case Complete Software- Based Payment volume .
Old-fashioned Payment Processors In this case Not true.
不过在我看来,作为集成支付处理商,这家面向市场的软件公司是最强劲、最容易理解的标的之一。
However In my opinion, the go-to- Market Software As a Integrated Payment Processor It is the most Strong and Easy to understand The locations One.
所以在我看来,现在这种不稳定性已经减少了很多。不过,就我感兴趣的话题而言,我觉得就是这样。他们具体的垂直领域或行业细节与此更相关,当然我们也是如此。我们来谈谈,如果业务历史很完整,你就落后了。
回顾过去,不过要进入今天这个位置,这个团队之前的工作能力才能真正看出来。
So mine It seems that The instabilities Now a lot It has decreased. However, Of my interest Speaking of, I think this is it. Their Specific Vertical Or sector Details With more Related, and Of course we are.
Let's talk about, Full of business If history You are behind. Looking back, however Today's To get into position This group before Work skills To really see Like.
我提到了Isaacman,他现在大概在做NASA的工作负责人。也许职位的名称不完全是这个,但他来自NASA。有主管在任。他/她将在2025年离开公司,去担任负责人。
Isaacman's Mention I did, who is now Probably NASA- Head of Work as Doing. Maybe Name of the position Not exactly this, But he is from NASA. Chief's On duty There is. He/She NASA in 2025- To be the head of For companies Leave.
还有他的团队。基本上承担了责任,所以不是吗?就像他的兄弟,和我一样有创始人的想法,现在是CEO兼董事长;也就是说,他的团队承担了责任。
And his team. Basically the responsibility Accepts, so No? Like his Brother, who is mine With the idea of Founder, Now CEO and Chairperson As is; That is, his team. The responsibility Took.
所以,团队还是同一批人。是的,但那位梦想家在16岁时创办了公司,并把它发展成一家价值数十亿美元的公司。他现在不在这里了。
So, the team is the same. Yes, but that Dreamer At the age of 16 The company Started And it's a few Billions of dollars In the company Mature Did. He is not here now.
我只是想说这一点。因为这是一家如此的公司,在你的信里有细节,所以它不一样。通过收购平均起来,他们起来了,并在2025年完成了他们有史以来最大的收购,大概是Global Blue。
And I just I just want to say this. That, since it is Such a The company which In your letter There are details, It is different. Acquisition Averaged through They got up and In 2025 Their All time The largest Acquisition Probably Global Blue Completed .
而且,你知道,这样想是可以的。那个人平均拿下了这家公司,那位创始人实际上拥有公司一半,现在他仍然拥有接近三分之一的股权。在我看来是28.6%。计算正确。
And, you know, It's okay to think. That man is this. Company average Took it, that Founder Practically Company Half owner Was, still He is almost one- Third Ownership Possessor. My It seems to be 28.6%. Correct calculation.
当他离开时。走吧,但团队还是同一批人。他们在,而且他们按照他的规则工作。那它在做什么呢?那种魔力有些影响减弱了?你知道,除了Jordan。公牛队也非常出色。如果Scottie Pippen没有偏头痛的问题,也许他们在1994年或95年本可以夺冠,但那些人不是公牛队。那些人在总决赛6胜0负。
When he leaves. Go, but The team is still the same. There are and they Work according to his rules. What is it doing then? That witch Some influence Decreases? You You know, Except for Jordan.
The Bulls team also It was very good. Scottie Pippen Migraine If there is no problem Maybe they are 1994. Or in 95 Could have won, But they Those were not bulls. Those in the final 6-0 Won.
如果他离开,那又怎样?失去了一点魔力?那你又在做什么?你开始被误导了吗?
and If he leaves Go, but what is that? A bit of magic Lost? And What are you doing then? Misguided Are you starting to be?
那么,Jared。下次这个团队,你对你的感受怎么看?是的,我的意思是,这是一个非常合理的问题。在我看来,就我而言,让我放心的原因是Jared本人。
So, Jared. Next time This team with About Your feelings What? Yes, I mean, This is very Reasonable A question. I think this In my case Reason for relief It's Jared himself.
他说过的话,当他在2025年投资者日告别时他说,然后他说:“Taylor作为新任CEO来了,我从CEO的位置上退下来,但Taylor知道。他失去了一个老板。但一个非常活跃的股东‘得到了它’。”
What he said, When he is 2025 Investors in Goodbye to the day He said, then he Said, " Taylor New As CEO Coming and I From the CEO position I'm stepping aside, But Taylor knows.
That he is a boss. Losing But one Very Active To the shareholder "Getting it."
所以,我对此深思熟虑。让我放心的是Jared在这里。投资没有那样做。没有。这是他个人的一笔非常大的投资,而且他仍然,你知道,今年年初当价格下跌时,他还在积极追加投资。
So, I am this. Well thought out. Relief I get that Jared is here. Investment Didn't do that. No. This is his. Personal A very big one Investment, and He is still, you You know, this year At the beginning when Price drop Went then Actively More investment Was doing.
不过我是这么认为的。如果我稍微往后想一想,我再说一遍,就像价格一样,人的态度没有什么能改变。改变不了。
However I think so. A little behind If I come and think, I say it again, Like the price Human Attitude and Nothing to change. Can't.
而这家做实事、展现出真实业绩的公司,虽然时间还不够长,但从2025年初开始,Jared的所作所为没有任何遗憾。没有那么大。我没看到任何问题,其中一些事件是连续的。
And The company that Does real work showed, although Still too much It's not time, but Beginning of 2025 From, Jared's Something from the time Without any regrets. Not that big.
I didn't see anything wrong, Some of them Incident Continuity Was.
我认为这样做,分享这一点。那很糟糕。这种情况,它背后的原因是什么?如果你去查一下。我认为很大程度上是2025年初。在投资者日上,他们给出了指引,其中说到2027年底,有10亿美元的自由现金流底线。
I think Do this, share this. That's bad. The situation, its What is the reason behind it? It was if you Check it out. I think it's Very much the beginning It was 2025. Year On Investor Day Giving them Guide From, where They are 2027.
At the end of the year, one Billion Free Cash floor Spoken.
而在Global Blue收购之前,他们的股价在100美元以上交易,给出了很大的目标,但后来它偏离了,是的,支付。该行业面临困难的局面,然后末日就来了。
and global Blue Acquisition Just before, they 100 dollars At a higher price Was trading, Big big Target Giving, But later it To move away from Yes, payment. Difficult in the sector Situation To face Yes, and then Comes The apocalypse .
从态度方面看,这似乎是一连串没完没了的坏消息,但如果看业务的真实表现,在我看来,他们做得相当不错。来吧。看看业务这一边。我们给它,所以,不行吗?他们中的许多,不同的垂直领域,以及许多类型的工作,是存在的。
Attitude aspect From this it seems One of the bad news Endless stream There was, but Business Real Performance If you see, my They seem quite Well done. Let's go. The business Look at the side.
Let's give it, so No? Many of them Different Vertical and Many types of work There is.
在我看来,这似乎是一件大事。关键在于,你,如果有的话,在体育场,去,像我一样。那天Mets在体育场,我在场,我看到了一切。Terminal Shift4的,还有PAR,或者有时候这些是toasts。
当我看到它时,我感觉就像,“哦,就是这个。”一家公开上市的公司。我,每当他们,在那里看到你,让我微笑。
My It seems like a big one. The point is, you If any At the stadium Go, like me. Mets that day At the stadium I was and I saw everything. Terminal Shift4's, Also PAR Or sometimes These are toasts.
When I see it, I feel It's like, "Oh, this is it." A public Traded Company." I Whenever they See you there, Makes me smile.
这个频道对 $FOUR 的历次判断
Yet Another Value Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。