GLD被高估，其表现更像高贝塔股票代理而非避险资产，预计将下跌至3,000。

Gold fits in my stock puppet category. It's highly correlated. The 100 day correlation with the S&P 500 reached almost such a multi-deade high recently.

Its volatility versus the S&P 500 is two times. That's hard the highest in 20 years. Could easily get back down to 3,000 before at some point it stays above 5,000.

oh, gold's going to like that and gold hates it.

Bitcoin is up there and gold and all the metals are stock puppets at the moment.

The thing about gold is unfortunately gold fits in my stock puppet category. It's highly correlated. The 100 day correlation with the S&P 500 reached almost such a multi-deade high recently. It's around 0.52. Typically gold zero correlation, a negative correlation in the stock market.

um its volatility versus the S&P 500 is two times. That's hard the highest in 20 years. It's the highest versus a Treasury bond index in 40 years. So I stick with the yeah long-term gold is going to be in an enduring range and it could easily get back down to 3,000 before at some point it stays above 5,000. It should be in this range forever.

Everybody bullish near the highs bearish in their lows but it's stuck in a range and it's in the middle of it's beta in the basket of metals and metals right now all metals have the highest correlation with the stock market on a 100 day basis ever if you go back 30 years

I think gold is tilted over to a bare market on the back of what Bitcoin did last year. Remember how bullish everybody was a year ago in Bitcoin? Same thing in gold. And like I mentioned, it's reached a pretty significant apex in my view.

And it could knock around in a range for a while. But I'm more worried about it pretty, you know, what does it do first? Does it press resistance around 5,000 or get break down below 3,000 and um make it easier to reset long? So right now to me, it's a bit of a no man's land for investors.

Does gold perform when inflation worries are high or does it go down when interest rates go up?

the fair value of this rock that some people say take out of ground, put back in the ground that has no income like Bitcoin has no income versus a Treasury guaranteed tenure note yield around 5% is just plain horrible. It's at a 40-year peak or high versus treasuries in terms of price gold is I just say thank you but no thank you. That's just too expensive.

So, I look at it as it's a lose-lose for gold. and we just point out right now gold is a stock puppet. It's very highly according to the stock market. You just never want to buy a store value uh oxymoron when it's two times the vital to the S&P 500.

Wait till it gets back. I'll give you example the example the time to buy gold was when it bottomed at 1,600 or near 1,600 which was its 60-month moving average in the fourth quarter of 2022. That was right after, you know, was there in that tightening cycle. It was right there. It was cheap. It was the time to buy it. Now it's 60% above that average. That's the highest on a year-end basis since basically almost 1980. It's very similar to the peak in 2011. and it's just too expensive versus that that um basics for all investing on the planet, the riskless return of a 10-year yield.

So, I'm I'm still not on that gold bullish camp. I'm still worried it's going to go lower, but all metals like even copper starting to break down.

The key thing to remember about gold is it's been part of that pumped and done scenario that started with Bitcoin in the beginning of the year and now includes goldies is still hovering up on the year by 1%.