通用汽车面临宏观逆风和技术性反转，预计价格将从91美元下跌至70美元。
逐段跳播
但让我们谈谈通用汽车。这是一只有趣的股票。在过去一个月和过去一年里，他们基本上交易平淡。他们仍然保持着大约50%的涨幅，但围绕通用汽车现在存在很多不确定性，关税和利率波动。我知道你说过这是你这里的主题的一部分。那么你认为这会如何影响通用汽车？
But let's talk about General Motors. This is an interesting stock. They have been trading largely casually over the past month and the past year. They still hold gains of around 50%, but there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding General Motors now with fluctuating tariffs and interest rates. I know you said this is part of your topic here. So how do you see this impacting General Motors?
是的，这真的很有趣，因为我不常打开这张图表。通用汽车不一定在我的主要关注范围内。我喜欢交易流动性高的股票之类的，但我的意思是，通用汽车绝对是一个可交易的产品。这一点毫无疑问，但正如我所说，它不是我经常打开查看的股票之一。
当我打开这张图表时，我惊讶地发现该股距离其最高水平还有一段距离。91 是最高水平，并且从那里出现了急剧反转。因此，很明显我将对该股采取做空（卖出）头寸。我将寻找下行交易。但我会确切地告诉你为什么。
那么，有多少不同的未知变量呢？正如我所说，选择你更喜欢的“鱼”。你仍然有地缘政治风险。你有非常高的汽油价格。你仍然有通货膨胀，我们将通过什么来消除它？提高利率。我的意思是，正如我所说，在这里选择你自己的毒药。
这似乎不是一个好时机。对于任何想在通用汽车上建立买入头寸的人来说，这是一个困难的局面。然而，市场在某种程度上忽略了这一点。啊，一切都会好起来的。到今年年底一切都会好起来。与此同时，我认为在 91 水平的这次急剧反转意味着什么。
我认为我们实际上正朝着该区间的下端前进，即回落到 70 水平。这正是我将如何进行交易。但是，在这种情况下，我会给自己一些时间在通用汽车股票上，因为它移动得相当缓慢。我将选择 12 月 18 日作为期权的到期日。
再次强调，期权在 12 月 18 日到期。我将以 80 买入看跌期权。再次强调，以 80 买入看跌期权，并以 70 卖出看跌期权。现在，80 和 70 之间的差异，好的，以 70 卖出，好吗？
这正是我认为该通道底部所在的位置。因此，买入 80 期权并卖出 70 期权的成本为 2.30 美元。这就是我所说的，你知道的，一个便宜的下跌机会。如果我们达到 70 水平，你将处于一个极好的位置。
你将获得什么？投资 2.30 美元获得 7.70 美元。但是，再次强调，从现在到 12 月期权到期日之间，我们必须大幅回落。
Yes, you know, it's really interesting because I don't usually open this chart very often . General Motors is not necessarily within my main sphere of interest. I like trading in highly liquid stocks and the like, but I mean, General Motors is definitely a tradable product . There is no doubt about that, but it is not, as I said, one of the stocks that I open very often. When I opened this chart, I was surprised to see that the stock was a little far from its highest levels. 91 is the highest level and has seen a sharp reversal from there. Therefore, it is clear that I will take a short (sell) position in this stock. I will look for a downward trade. But I'll tell you exactly why . So, how many different unknown variables are there? As I said, choose the "fish" you prefer. You still have geopolitical risks. You have very high gas prices. You still have inflation, we will try to eliminate it by what? Raising interest rates. I mean, as I said, choose your own poison here. This doesn't seem like, well, a good time. It's a difficult situation for anyone who wants to take a buying position, so to speak, in General Motors. However, the market has somewhat ignored this . Ah, everything will be alright. Everything will be fine by the end of the year. At the same time, I think this sharp reversal at the 91 level means something. I think we're actually heading towards the lower end of that range, which is going back down to the 70 level. And that's exactly how I'm going to trade. But, in this case, I would give myself some time in General Motors stock because it is moving rather slowly. I will choose December 18th as the expiration date for the options . Again, the options expire on December 18. I will buy a put option at 80. Again, buy a put option at 80, and sell a put option at 70 for it. Now, this difference between 80 and 70, okay, sell at 70, okay? This is exactly where I believe the bottom of this channel is located . So, buying an 80 option and selling a 70 option is done at a cost of $2.30. This is what I would call, you know, a cheap opportunity towards the decline. If we reach level 70, you are in an excellent position here. What will you gain? $7.70 for an investment of $2.30. But, once again, we must fall back considerably between now and the expiry date of the December options.
好的。那么，Rick，我们看到这笔交易大约下跌了 15%。我可以看到在技术面上我们已经有一个下降通道。关于艺术结构，你看到了什么？
Good. So, we're looking at a decline of approximately 15% here, Rick, for this deal. I can see that we already have a downward channel on the technical aspects here. What do you see regarding the artistic structure?
正确。所以，这是我们图表上最值得关注的区域，这个短期下降通道，从之前提到的 91.85 的峰值开始。另一个短期的、反复出现的顶部出现在 88 水平。因此，这代表了相对高点，乐观主义者希望收复这些高点并试图重新建立某种上升趋势。
与此同时，我们在 84 附近有低点。另一个低点在 79 附近。然后在 75 附近有一个底部。所以，目前，在突破之前接近 92 的高点之后，我们仍处于通道的范围内。我们的 5 日和 21 日指数移动平均线在 85 水平上方对齐。
因此，这给了我们一个需要监控的交叉点。在这种情况下，因为我们低于这个交叉点，它将作为阻力位。现在我们已经跌破该水平，正如我所说，这是趋势可能正在改变的早期警告信号。我们已经看到跌破两者。
看来随着一天的推移，情况在这里变得更加根深蒂固。下一个测试将是我们的 63 日季度指数移动平均线，位于 88.37，作为下一个预期步骤。因此，相对强弱指数（RSI）给了我们另一个看跌信号。
我们正在跌破 50 中线，并且我们也在跌破我们的绿色趋势线。因此，基于这些技术因素，看跌证据目前开始有所积累。我们的成交量分布显示，我们突破了大约 86 到 87 之间的这个小节点。
这里的控制点将在 81 水平，另一个重要的测试。那是我们最密集的交易区域。因此，如果我们进一步下跌，请留意这个特定区域是否也能守住。
correct. So, this is the most prominent area to look at on our chart here, this short-term descending channel , starting from those previously mentioned peaks at 91.85. Another short-term, recurring ceiling appeared at the 88 level. Therefore, this represents relative highs that optimists would like to reclaim and attempt to re-establish some kind of uptrend. Meanwhile, we had lows here near 84. Another low here near 79. Then a floor here near 75. So, for now, we're staying within the confines of our channel here after that surge above previous highs near 92. Our 5- day and 21-day exponential moving averages are aligned just above the 85 level. Therefore, this gives us a point of intersection that needs to be monitored. In this case, because we are below this intersection, it will act as a resistance level. Now that we've fallen below that, as I said, this is an early warning sign that the trend may be changing now. We have seen a decline to below both. It seems that things are becoming more entrenched here as the day goes on. The next test will be our 63-day quarterly exponential moving average in gold at 88.37, as the next expected step. Therefore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI ) gives us another bearish signal. We are falling below the 50 midline, and we are also breaking our green trend line. So, the bearish evidence here, based on these technical factors, is starting to accumulate somewhat at the moment . Our size profile shows that we broke through this small node here between approximately 86 and 87 . The control point here will be at level 81, another important test. That's our most intensive trading area. So, if we drop further, keep an eye out to see if this particular area holds up as well.
好的。目前，对于通用汽车，我们处于 84.55。我们在今天的交易中下跌了略多于 1%。
Good. Currently, for GM, we are at 84.55. We are down slightly more than one percent in today's session .
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $GM 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。