GOOGL面临因潜在数据中心减记导致的短期下行风险至约150美元，尽管相对于债券的长期前景积极。
逐段跳播
他公布了他的13F模型，并又增持了45%的谷歌股份。所以，他正在用谷歌A类股填满他的投资组合。现在这是他投资组合中的第四大投资。
He released his 13F model, and he added another 45% to his Google stake. So, he's filling his portfolio with Class A Google shares. It's now the fourth largest investment in his portfolio.
这确实压力很大，我认为Greg正试图把钱投资到他非常有信心处于有利位置的地方。为什么不投谷歌呢？他们做得非常出色。
That's a lot of pressure, really, and I think Greg is trying to invest money somewhere he's very confident is in a good position. And why not Google? They've done an amazing job.
我的团队让我投资了谷歌，我当时也同意，'好吧，我们投资这个，但我想知道这家科技公司中什么触发点会让我们退出。什么故事变化会让我们退出这笔交易，因为我知道故事会变。这就是科技的本质。
它会摧毁你赚钱的现有产品，并在未来创造更好的东西，否则你就完蛋了。这就是科技。'
my team got me into the Google investment and I was okay with it, 'Okay, we're investing in this, but I want to know what the trigger is in this tech company that will make us exit. What change in the story will make us walk out of this deal because I know the story is going to change. That's what technology does. It destroys your existing products that make all your money and creates something better in the future, or you're doomed. That's technology.'
所以，他们说，'好吧，'Travis、Austin和Hunter坐下来商量说，'好吧，退出的触发点将是当谷歌的搜索数据开始下滑时，因为AI没有吸引人们使用谷歌搜索。AI工具会直接把你带到你想去的网站。
你不需要谷歌搜索。你不需要那条蓝线，因此你正在为谷歌的搜索广告收入做贡献。'
So, they said, 'Okay,' Travis, Austin, and Hunter sat down and said, 'Okay, the trigger to exit will be when Google's search numbers start to decline because AI isn't attracting people to Google Search. The AI tool will take you directly to the site you want to go to. You don't need Google Search. You don't need that blue line, and therefore you're contributing to Google's search ad revenue.'
所以，那就是触发点。我们按自己的方式行事，谷歌表现良好，然后苹果宣布谷歌搜索遇到了问题。他们没有看到我们需要的数字。我们基于此做出了决定。而在两年内，谷歌的价值翻了一番。
So, that was the trigger. We're going our way, Google is doing well, and then Apple announces that search Google was having problems. They weren't seeing the numbers we needed. We made the decision based on that. And within two years, Google's value doubled.
当然，结果是在苹果宣布后不久，谷歌的Gemini终于开始工作了，他们找到了将谷歌搜索与Gemini整合的方法。这很天才，他们跃居榜首。
And of course, it turned out that shortly after Apple's announcement, Google's Gemini finally started working, and they found a way to integrate Google Search with Gemini. It was genius, and they soared to the top.
最后一轮收购经过了充分估值。谷歌，考虑到他们投入数据中心的1000亿美元在投入运营时不会过时，而且他们不必在500亿美元利润中减记1000亿美元，导致利润转为亏损，我认为这非常可能。
That last round of acquisitions was thoroughly valued. Google, with all the expectations that the $100 billion they're putting into their data centers won't be obsolete by the time they're operational, and that they won't have to write off $100 billion of $50 billion in profits and see their profits turn into losses, which I see as very likely.
我认为Greg是在做长远打算。我们会买入；从长远来看，这肯定会是一个获胜的选择。但与此同时，如果谷歌股价在某个时候没有回到150美元左右，我会真的感到惊讶。
I think Greg is looking long-term. We'll buy; and that's certainly going to be a winning option in the long run. But in the meantime, I'd be genuinely surprised if we didn't see Google stock return to around $150 at some point.
更重要的是，我投资的钱是否能在中长期内合理地、甚至适度地跑赢美国国债。这甚至不像伯克希尔那样试图寻找下一个能带来100倍回报的大交易。它只是这样：这能否每年产生超过4%的收益？
如果是，那么比如说，因为我认为谷歌的投资头寸规模现在大约为300亿美元。把300亿美元投入谷歌，长期来看是否比投入美国国债略好？我不知道答案，但我觉得这就是那个等式。
It's more about whether what I invest my money in will reasonably, even modestly, outperform U.S. Treasury bonds over a medium- to long-term period. It's not even like Berkshire trying to find the next big deal that will yield 100 times the return. It's simply this: Will this yield more than 4% per annum? If so, let's say because I think the size of the investment position in Google is now around 30 billion. Would putting 30 billion dollars in Google be slightly better in the long run than putting it in U.S. Treasury bonds? I don't know the answer to that, but I feel like that's the equation.
因为我认为谷歌的投资头寸规模现在大约为300亿美元。把300亿美元投入谷歌，长期来看是否比投入美国国债略好？我不知道答案，但我觉得这就是那个等式。
because I think the size of the investment position in Google is now around 30 billion. Would putting 30 billion dollars in Google be slightly better in the long run than putting it in U.S. Treasury bonds ? I don't know the answer to that, but I feel like that's the equation.
是的，我认为这是一个非常好的赌注，而且我认为他们相信他们与基金经理处于不同的位置。他们处于这样一个位置：投资者不会因为谷歌价值减半而烦恼，即使他们不得不在账面上进行所有这些减记，股价像石头一样下跌，这会让典型的对冲基金中的养老基金经理烦恼到撤资。
Yes, I think it's a very good bet, and I think they believe they're in a different position than fund managers. They're in a position where investors aren't bothered if Google's value drops by half, given that they have to write all those write-downs on their books and the stock falls like a stone, which would bother pension fund managers in a typical hedge fund to the point where they pull money out of you.
所以，我完全理解Greg的观点，而且这几乎肯定会跑赢美国国债。
So, I completely understand Greg's point of view, and it's almost certain to outperform the Treasury bonds.
在我看来，这绝对不是沃伦·巴菲特式的买入。我从未见过巴菲特在非折价的东西上这样花钱。
In my opinion, this is definitely not a Warren Buffett-style buy. I've never seen Buffett spend money like that on something that isn't discounted.
我的意思是，谷歌现在处于五或四的水平。是的。不是吗？现在买入谷歌就像买一栋昂贵的公寓楼。你会从中赚钱吗？绝对会。是的，你会做得很好。这会很好。这是一栋好地段的好楼。但这不同于以11%的收益率买入同一栋楼，你的现金流是你投资的11%。不，你根本不会从谷歌那里得到那样的交易。
I mean, Google is at a five or four level right now. Yes. Isn't it? Buying Google now is like buying an expensive apartment building. Will you make money from it? Absolutely. Yes, you'll do well. It'll be good. It's a good building in a great location. But it's not the same as buying the same building at an 11% yield where your cash flow is 11% of your investment. No, you don't get that deal with Google at all.
而且我认为这次买入谷歌有两个方面。它将跑赢美国国债，并将帮助伯克希尔·哈撒韦跟上AI领域的变化之风。
And I think this Google buy has two aspects. It will outperform Treasuries, and it will help Berkshire Hathaway Keeping pace with the changing winds in the AI sector.
我记得他给我讲过一个故事，关于他如何交易谷歌股票直到达到负成本基础。他说它们是免费股票。
I remember him telling me a story about how he traded until he reached a negative base cost in Google shares. He says they are free shares.
这个频道对 $GOOGL 的历次判断
New Money 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。