Google 相比 Meta 更受青睐;凭借强大的生态系统以及超过 80% 的云业务增长,这一观点得以支撑,尽管资本开支正在上升(明年 325-350B 美元)。
逐段跳播
我们目前持有,我们目前持有 Google。而且我们实际上仍然认为 Alphabet 或 Google 的持有价值更强。
we currently have holding we were currently in Google. So, um and we still think actually Alphabet or Google has a stronger holding.
这主要是因为它所拥有的整个生态系统,其中显然包括搜索,当然也包括 YouTube。但除此之外,它还包括上个季度实际增长超过 80% 的那一板块,那就是云。所以,它受益于云,因为其他公司基本上必须走出去,在 Google 的 GCP 上实施他们的 AI 战略。
然后显然还要使用 Gemini。而 Gemini 瞄准的更多是企业客户而非消费者,而这正是 Meta 的代理式 AI 目前所瞄准的方向。
And that's mainly because of the the entire ecosystem that it has, which obviously includes um the the search, it includes also, of course, YouTube. But besides that, it includes that segment that actually grew over 80% last quarter, and that's cloud. So, it benefits from cloud in terms of, you know, other companies having to basically get out there and um and uh implement a their AI strategies on Google's GCP. And then also, obviously, utilizing uh Gemini. And Gemini, as you know, uh targets more enterprise uh clients rather than consumers, which is, you know, where where Meta's uh agentic AI is uh is currently targeting.
所以,基于这几个原因,我们仍然更看好 Google 而非 Meta,
So, uh for those for those few reasons, we, you know, we we still favor uh Google uh over Meta,
是的,就 Alphabet 而言,听着,资本支出正在产生真实的收入,你从云业务这里超过 80% 的增长率,以及他们在整个生态系统中正在做的事情,还有你在搜索等领域看到的增长率中,都能真切地看到这一点。
Yeah, so as far as Alphabet is concerned, listen, the CapEx spend is is generating real revenue and you kind of see it really from that 80% plus growth rate here from the cloud business as well as what they're doing just across their entire ecosystem and the growth rates you're also seeing you know across search among other areas.
但当你思考资本支出的轨迹,或者我们对未来两年资本支出轨迹的看法时,它很可能远高于华尔街的预期。我认为明年可能达到 3250 亿至 3500 亿,而我认为再往后很可能超过 4000 亿。
But when you kind of think about the CapEx trajectory or our view of the CapEx trajectory over the next 2 years is probably going to be much greater than what the street is looking at. I think you're looking at potentially 325 350 next year and I think following you're probably going north of 400 billion.
我不认为你们会继续保持超过 80% 的增长率,但在接下来几个季度里,你们将看到非常可观的增长率,超过 50%。它会随着时间推移而放缓,但当你展望未来 6 到 8 个季度时,这是一项在某个时点将占其收入三分之一甚至更多的业务。
所以它正在转化为真实的收入,尤其是随着他们现在开始加大云业务中硬件部分的投入。
I don't think you continue to have that 80% plus growth rate, but you're going to have very attractive growth rates here over the next couple quarters north of 50%. It'll decelerate over time, but when you start looking out here over the next 6 to 8 quarters, this is a business that's you know going to represent at some point over a third and even more of their revenue. So it's it's translating to real revenue and you know especially as they now start ramping up the the hardware piece of that cloud business.
那么其他云服务提供商呢,我是说我们可以把 Google、AWS 和 Azure 都算进来。它们现在是否也必须达到同等水平的保护,才能让用户相信他们的数据是安全的?
Do other cloud providers then, I mean Google we can put AWS and Azure in here too. Do they have to match that same level of protection now just to convince users that their data is safe?
与此同时,如果你回顾一下,这可能会为 Google 及其 YouTube 和 Shorts 树立一个不好的先例。
At the same time, you know, if you look back it may set a bad precedent for for Google and its YouTube and and Shorts.
不过,如果看看Google历史上是如何应对的,就会发现它一直在逐步调整自己的政策、视频编辑政策、各种限制等等,朝着它认为监管层面将会发展的方向靠拢。
However, if you look at what Google how Google has responded historically is that it has gradually adjusted its policies, its video editing policies, its restrictions and so forth towards where it thinks things will be moving from a regulatory standpoint.
所以,回答你的问题,我认为不应该对Google或Alphabet打太大的折扣。
So, to answer your question, I don't think it should be discounted too much on on Google or Alphabet.
他说在等什么
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