GOOGL 是高确信度买入标的，被视为一家堪称“名人堂”级别的公司，目前估值合理或略微低估。
逐段跳播
在9月举行的高盛科技大会上，Alphabet向投资者表示，其人工智能性能是竞争对手的2.7倍，推理方面的性价比高出80%。
At Goldman Sachs' technology conference in September, Alphabet informed investors that its artificial intelligence performance outperformed competitors by 2.7 times, with 80% better price performance in inference.
Alphabet拥有完整的技术基础设施，从专用处理单元到大语言模型，再到涵盖六条不同产品线、用户超过十亿的产品。这使公司能够将人工智能投资的成本分摊到更广泛的客户群体上。
Alphabet has the complete technological infrastructure, from dedicated processing units to large language models and products that include more than one billion users across six different product lines .
This allows the company to spread the costs of investing in artificial intelligence across a broader customer base.
但这是否意味着Alphabet股票现在就是一个买入机会？Alphabet过去十二个月的营收已超过4460亿美元。
But does this make Alphabet stock a buying opportunity right now? Alphabet's revenues over the past twelve months have exceeded $446 billion.
在我前面提到的同一场大会上，管理层表示公司的人工智能业务年化运营规模已超过1000亿美元。
At the same conference I mentioned earlier, the management team indicated that the company's artificial intelligence business had exceeded an annual operating rate of $100 billion.
云端人工智能服务的累计营收约为5000亿美元，每季度新增增长超过500亿美元。这些都是巨大的数字，Alphabet正开始收获其在人工智能领域巨额投资的回报。
The cumulative revenue of cloud-based artificial intelligence services is approximately $500 billion, with additional quarterly growth exceeding $50 billion. So, these are huge numbers, and Alphabet is beginning to reap the rewards of its massive investments in artificial intelligence.
Alphabet正在收获生产率提升带来的好处的另一个迹象，是看每位员工的营收。可以看到，这一数字在过去十年间几乎翻了一倍，而自2024年以来这一改善的速度还在加快。
Another sign that Alphabet is reaping the benefits of productivity gains is looking at revenue per employee. You can see that number nearly doubled over the past decade, with the pace of this improvement accelerating since 2024.
可以看到，2024年Alphabet每位员工创造的营收约为165万美元。
You can see that in 2024, Alphabet employees were earning about $1.65 million per employee.
这一数字已升至每位员工215.4万美元。这意味着在仅仅一年半到两年间，生产率提升了约33%或25%。现在，有理由假设公司将继续实现类似的改善。
This figure has risen to $2.154 million per employee. This represents a productivity gain of approximately 33% or 25% in just one and a half or two years. Now, it is reasonable to assume that the company will continue to make similar improvements.
总营收在增长，而公司维持着相对稳定的员工人数。管理层预计这一情况将持续下去。
Total revenue is increasing while the company maintains a relatively stable number of employees. The administration expected this to remain the case.
Alphabet股票的估值现已接近其两年来的最高点。但把时间拉长来看，Alphabet股票的估值仍处于相对便宜的水平。
Alphabet's stock valuation has now reached levels approaching its highest point in two years. But, looking further back, Alphabet's stock is still trading at a relatively cheap valuation .
基于预期市盈率，该企业目前的市盈率为22.7，对于一家营收正以近20%的速度加速增长、并在强大竞争优势下持续改善营业利润率的公司来说，这是一个合理的价格。
Based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio, the business is trading at 22.7, which is a reasonable price for a company whose revenues are accelerating by nearly 20% and improving its operating profit margins with strong competitive advantages.
当然，目前的经营风险比以往任何时候都高。不过，它可能并没有达到历史最高水平。早期肯定比现在更危险，但我们可以说，经营风险比近几年都要高。
Of course, business risks are currently higher than they have ever been . Well, it's probably not higher than it ever was . The early days were certainly more dangerous than they are now, but we can say that business risks are higher than they have been in recent years.
在人工智能领域的巨额投资，我指的是数千亿美元级别的庞大金额，很可能会继续下去。
The massive investments in artificial intelligence, and by that I mean huge sums in the hundreds of billions of dollars, are likely to continue.
这涉及巨大的风险，因为它是前所未有的，属于一个全新的类别。这并不是Alphabet像在其他类别中那样多年来已证明其主导地位的领域。
This involves enormous risks because it is unprecedented and falls into a new category. It is not an area where Alphabet has proven its dominance for many years as it has in its other categories.
所以，当然，这是一个更危险的情况。自然，当风险上升时，估值就会下降。在其他所有因素相同的情况下，投资者更愿意以更低的风险获得相同的回报率。
So , of course, this is a more dangerous situation. Naturally, when risks increase, valuations decrease. All other factors being equal, investors prefer to get the same rate of return with less risk.
因此，如果你提高风险，投资者就会要求更高的回报率，从而要求更低的估值。因此，今天我更新了对Alphabet的现金流折现评估，有趣的是，Alphabet是少数几家大型科技公司之一。
嗯，我不该说少数。考虑到“七巨头”中预计在2026年产生正现金流的企业，它们大约占了一半。
Therefore, if you increase the risk, investors will demand a higher rate of return and therefore a lower valuation. Therefore, today I also updated my discounted cash flow assessment for Alphabet, and interestingly, Alphabet is one of the few major technology companies .
Well, I shouldn't say few. They make up about half when considering the "Great Seven" who are expected to generate positive cash flow in 2026.
然而，明年这一数字很可能会转为负值。因此，我预计Alphabet今年的自由现金流为78亿美元，明年为负320亿美元。然后在2028年恢复为正现金流，接着在2029年随着AI投资开始见效、支出开始下降，收获146亿美元自由现金流的巨大回报。
However, that is likely to turn negative next year. Therefore, I expect $7.8 billion in free cash flow for Alphabet this year, and a negative $32 billion next year . Then a return to positive cash flow in 2028 , and then reaping huge rewards in 2029 with $146 billion in free cash flow, as AI investments start to bear fruit and spending starts to decline.
我估计，对于Alphabet、Meta、Amazon和Microsoft等大型云计算公司而言，人工智能方面的支出将在2027年至2028年之间的某个时候见顶。
I estimate that spending on artificial intelligence will peak sometime between 2027 and 2028 for major cloud computing companies such as Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft.
因此，基于这些估算，我计算出Alphabet股票的合理价值为338美元，而当前市场价格为342美元。根据我的现金流折现（DCF）模型，该股似乎估值合理。
Therefore, based on these estimates, I calculated the fair value of Alphabet stock at $338 , with a current market price of $342. Based on my discounted cash flow (DCF) model, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
根据预期市盈率，该股似乎被低估了。总体而言，我会说这家公司的估值介于合理定价与略微低估之间。值得注意的是，我将Alphabet归类为世界级“名人堂”公司之一。
Based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio, the stock appears to be undervalued . Overall, I would say that the company falls somewhere between fair pricing and slightly underpricing.
It is important to note that I classify Alphabet as one of the world's Hall of Fame companies.
当我把一家公司认定为“名人堂”公司时，我认为如果它以合理价格交易，那就是物有所值，对投资者而言代表着一个买入机会。
When I designate a company as a "Hall of Fame" company, I believe that if it trades at a fair price, it is a good value and represents a buying opportunity for investors.
我认为Alphabet略微被低估，并且是一家“名人堂”公司。因此，我认为这是一个极佳的买入机会。我将Alphabet股票评为“买入”。
I think Alphabet is slightly undervalued and is a Hall of Fame company. Therefore, I think it's an excellent buying opportunity . I have rated Alphabet stock as a "buy".
我自2020年起就持有Alphabet股票，并且至今已将近十年一直推荐并将Alphabet评为买入机会。对于Alphabet是长期投资者的良好买入机会这一点，我的信心水平极高，是我三个信心等级——高、中、低——中最高的。
I have owned Alphabet shares since 2020, and I have been recommending and rating Alphabet as a buy opportunity for almost a decade now. My level of confidence that Alphabet is a good buying opportunity for long-term investors is extremely high, the highest I have among my three conviction levels: high, medium, or low.
当然，没有任何生意是有保证的，每项投资都伴随着风险，但我认为在这种情况下，风险与回报的比率是不错的。
Of course, no business is guaranteed and there are risks associated with every investment, but I think the risk-to- reward ratio in this case is good.
这个频道对 $GOOGL 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。