Grab Holdings 值得买入，公允价值为 6.18 美元，而当前股价为 3.03 美元，但由于波动性及对区域市场不熟悉，信心程度下调至低。
逐段跳播
Grab Holding 的股价在 2026 年年初至今已下跌近 40%，而中东的局势正在让情况变得更糟。鉴于该地区能源成本上升，管理层团队仍致力于在燃油价格方面为司机提供支持。
Grab Holding stock is down almost 40% year to date in 2026 and the situation in the Middle East is making things worse. The management team remains committed to supporting drivers with fuel prices given the higher energy costs in the region.
尽管如此，公司仍在投资新的机会，例如收购、金融服务以及自动驾驶汽车。Grab 正在新加坡推进商业化，计划在 2026 年第四季度前推出能够产生收入的门到门自动驾驶服务。
Still, the company is investing in new opportunities like acquisitions and financial services and autonomous vehicles. Grab is moving forward to commercialization in Singapore with plans to bring launch point-to-point revenue-generating autonomous services by the fourth quarter of 2026.
但这一切是否让 Grab Holdings 成为一只值得买入的被低估股票？让我们仔细看看并回答这个问题。Grab Holdings 在提升收入方面做得非常出色，在最近一个滚动 12 个月期间，收入已飙升至 37 亿。
But does all of this make Grab Holdings an undervalued stock to buy? Let's take a closer look and answer that question. Grab Holdings has done an excellent job increasing revenue, which has soared to 3.7 billion in the most recent trailing 12-month period.
公司产生的收入利润率约为 16%，如果把它与像 Uber 这样的公司相比，是更低的，对吧？所以，Grab Holdings 约 16% 的收入抽成率固然稳健，但仍有进一步扩大的空间。
The company generates a revenue margin of around 16%, which if you compare it to a company like Uber is less, right? So, Grab Holdings revenue share rate of around 16% is solid to be sure, but has room to expand further.
近期在金融服务领域的收购应当会扩大其在该类别中的机会范围。这是一项混合型业务，对吧？一部分收入来自外卖及其他易腐品配送网络，另一部分收入来自金融服务板块，即发放贷款、吸引客户进入该类别。
Recent acquisitions in financial services should expand its opportunity set in that category. It's a mixed business, right? You get some revenue from a food delivery and other perishable delivery networks and then you get revenue from the financial services segment making loans, attracting customers to that category.
公司拥有数千万活跃用户，而这是一个我在全球范围内都看好的类别。我已经把这一类别中的其他公司列为买入机会，包括 DoorDash、Uber、Lyft 等。
The company boasts tens of millions of active users and it's a category where I'm bullish about worldwide. I've already ranked other companies in this category as buying opportunities including DoorDash, Uber, Lyft, and more.
你可以看到投资者在 2026 年转向看空 Grab 股票的原因之一。其经营现金流与销售额之比曾一路飙升，并在 2025 年达到近 50%。此后该比率一路暴跌至 2.17%。
You can see one of the reasons why investors have turned bearish on Grab stock in 2026. It's cash flow from operations to sales ratio was soaring and reached almost 50% in 2025.
That has since collapsed all the way down to 2.17%.
公司的利润率受到多个因素的影响，包括公司为司机提供的支持。能源价格上涨使司机更难通过外卖和易腐品配送网络谋生。在油价持续高企的情况下，公司仍致力于支持司机。
The company's margins are impacted by several factors including support the company's providing drivers. Higher energy prices is making it more difficult for drivers to earn a living with food delivery and perishable delivery networks.
The company remains committed to supporting drivers as the higher oil prices remain to be in place.
Grab Holdings 的投资资本回报率仍在改善，达到 6.04%。这一绝对数字相对较低。它低于公司的加权平均资本成本，但这仍是一家处于早期阶段的成长型公司。而且正如我所说，如果公司展现出改善，并且仍是一家较年轻的公司，那么我可以接受其投资资本回报率低于加权平均资本成本。
Returns on invested capital are still improving for Grab Holdings at 6.04%. The absolute number is relatively low. It's below the company's weighted average cost of capital, but this is still a early stage growth company.
And as I've said, I'm okay with the company having a return on invested capital that's lower than the weighted average cost of capital if it's demonstrating improvement and if it's still a younger company.
然而，对于更成熟的公司，我期望它们的投资资本回报率至少等于或高于其加权平均资本成本。
However, more mature companies I expect them to have returns on invested capital that are at least equal to or greater than their weighted average cost of capital.
看看这一类别中的其他公司，获得非常丰厚投资资本回报率的潜力是存在的。自动驾驶汽车可能成为推动这一类别进一步发展的催化剂。不过这是一个巨大的颠覆性类别，上行空间和下行空间差距悬殊。
Looking at other companies in this category, the potential for very lucrative returns on invested capital is there. Autonomous vehicles could be that catalyst that drives this category further still.
It's a big disruptive category though and the upside and downside are wide disparity.
Grab 目前的远期市盈率为 21.8。这是该股有史以来最便宜的估值。以远期市盈率衡量，你从未能以更便宜的估值买入该股。
Grab is now trading at a forward price to earnings of 21.8. This is the cheapest this stock has traded for ever. You haven't been able to buy the stock at a cheaper valuation when measuring on a forward price to earnings basis.
所以今天我更新了对 Grab Holdings 的现金流折现估值，并做了几处值得注意的调整。首先，我下调了对该业务未来几年自由现金流的预期。成本上升和收入下降导致未来自由现金流估计值降低。
此外，由于股价波动加剧，我还上调了该业务的风险。两者结合，产生了降低每股内在价值的影响。
So today I updated my discounted cash flow valuation for Grab Holdings with a few notable adjustments. First of all, I revised lower my expectations for free cash flow for this business over the next few years.
Higher costs and lower revenue resulted in lower estimates for free cash flow going forward. Further, I also adjusted upwards the risk of the business because of the increasing volatility in the share price.
Combined, that had the impact of lowering the intrinsic value per share.
尽管如此，我计算出该业务的公允价值估计为 6.18 美元。这超过当前市场价格 3.03 美元的两倍。所以，正如我提到的，我一直看好这个行业，并且全年都将 Grab 股票评为买入。
因此，看到其股价表现我感到失望。这是 2026 年最糟糕的推荐或最糟糕的评级之一。
Still, I calculated a fair value estimate of $6.18 for the business. That's more than double the current market price of $3.03. So, as I mentioned, I've been bullish on this industry and I've had Grab stock rated as a buy all year long.
So, I'm disappointed to see the performance in the share price. It's been one of the worst recommendations or worst rankings in 2026.
不过，在更新这家公司的业务时，我上一次跟踪这家公司、上一次评估这家公司是在3月24日。而在我最近一次评估这家公司时，我仍然认为它是一个有吸引力的买入机会。因此，我今天将重申对Grab Holdings的买入评级。
However, as I update this business, I last followed the company I last evaluated the company on March 24th. And as I evaluated the company more recently, I still think it's an attractive buying opportunity.
So, I will be reiterating that buy rating on Grab Holdings today.
不过，有一点确实引起了我的注意，那就是鉴于行业格局不断变化，这将会是一门波动性更大的生意。因此，与其对这项买入评级保持中等信心水平或中等确信水平，我将把这一确信水平下调至低。这是我对一项买入建议、一项买入评级所能持有的最低确信水平，而得出这一低评级是有几个因素的。
其一，这不是一家我跟踪得很频繁的公司，所以这从一开始就降低了我的信心水平。此外，这家公司经营的地区我并不经常跟踪，因此我对该地区宏观经济因素的理解也不如其他类别那样充分。基于这些原因，我对这项买入评级持有低信心水平、低确信水平。
However, one thing that did come to my attention is this is going to be a more volatile business given the changing dynamics in the industry. So, rather than have a medium conviction level or medium confidence level on this buy ranking, I'm lowering that conviction level to low.
It's the lowest level of conviction I can have on a buy recommendation on a buy ranking, and it concludes it has several factors for that low rating. For one, this isn't a company that I follow very frequently, so that lowers my confidence level right off the bat.
Additionally, this company operates in a region that I don't follow very frequently, so my understanding of the macroeconomic factors in the region is also less than it is in other categories.
So, for those reasons, I have a low confidence level, low conviction level on this buy ranking.
这个频道对 $GRAB 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。