Grab 是一个风险回报比划算的标的；若通过金融服务和收购实现盈利目标，股价有望翻倍。
逐段跳播
我们继续在全球范围内寻找价值标的，而你们一直要求我们关注的股票之一就是Grab。业务在运营，公司在增长，但该股自几年前通过特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）上市以来，和许多“泡沫”公司一样，并没有真正交出理想的结果。
它现在是否只是曾经那个充满前景的投资标的的一小部分？
We continue our global search for value, and one of the stocks you have asked us to look at over time is Grab. The business is operating and the company is growing, but the stock, since its initial public offering through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) a few years ago, like many "bubble" companies, has not really delivered the desired results .
Is it now a fraction of what it once was as a promising investment deal?
当我们谈到“SPAC”时，它们是以400亿的估值发行认购的。我们现在是110亿。它们还筹集了45亿现金。实际上，你现在支付的是它们所筹现金的两倍，而不是当时的估值。
When we talk about " SPAC", they were offered for subscription with a valuation of 40 billion. We are now at 11 billion. They also raised 4.5 billion in cash. In practice, you are now paying double what they raised in cash, not what the valuation was at that time.
如果我们看业务，配送、东南亚、有意思的国家，然后是股票回购，在未来12个月内回购公司约10%的股份。他们正在收购Atome Financial，这款金融应用，贷款、先买后付，以及这个领域的诸多业务，将其与自己的用户基础整合，试图打造一个持续的增长循环。
If we look at the business, delivery, Southeast Asia, interesting countries, then share buybacks, buying about 10% of the company in the next 12 months. They are acquiring Atome Financial, the financial app, loans, buy now, pay later, and much more in this sector, to integrate that with their user base and try to create a continuous growth cycle .
他们仍在增长，一切都在增长。东南亚继续快速发展。他们全部以现金支付，现在支付60%，之后根据EBITDA的发展再支付40%，但总体而言他们希望产生利息，调整后盈利目标升至17亿。
They are still growing, and everything is growing. Southeast Asia continues to develop rapidly. They are paying everything in cash, 60% now and 40% later based on EBITDA developments, but overall they are looking to generate interest , with adjusted earnings target rising to 1.7 billion.
所以，如果这在2028年实现，我们谈论的就是一家以五倍经营盈利交易的成长型公司。有意思的国家：新加坡、泰国、马来西亚，如今在Delivery Hero收购GoPanda之后甚至还有台湾，以及菲律宾。
So, if that is achieved in 2028, we are talking about a growth company trading at five times its operating earnings. Interesting countries: Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and now even Taiwan after Delivery Hero's acquisition of GoPanda, and the Philippines.
目标是增长。这是财务增长的目标。他们尚未实现盈利，但他们正在改变这一点，而随着收购一家盈利的公司，他们的业绩应该会改善。这应该也会改善他们的故事。
The goal is growth. This is the goal of financial growth. They haven't been profitable yet , but they are changing that, and with the acquisition of a profitable company, their performance should improve. This should improve their story as well.
这里是目标回购。如果我们稍微看一下数据，上一季度增长了20-22%，甚至比第一季度增长得更好。过去几个月自由现金流达到4.5亿。
Here are the targeted buybacks. If we look a little at the data, the last quarter grew by 20-22%, and even grew better than the first quarter. Free cash flow reached 450 million during the past months.
投资，如果你是配送公司，当然会有燃料方面的问题，但他们正在应对一个过渡阶段。当你拥有一家企业时，总会有经营上的问题。这很正常。我们目标是未来20%的增长。
Investment, of course there are fuel issues if you are a delivery company, but they are dealing with a transitional phase. There will always be business problems when you own a business.
This is normal. We are targeting 20% growth in the future.
调整后息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）为7亿。因此，计划是在未来两年内提高这些调整后盈利，实际上将其翻倍。这是可能的，因为他们已经达到了合适的盈利能力和规模。
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) are 700 million. Therefore, the plan is to increase these adjusted earnings over the next two years to effectively double them.
This is possible because they have reached the appropriate profitability and size.
如果你看现金流，它们减少了十亿。我相信他们花了4亿用于回购，6亿用于收购。好，这就是我们在现金流方面的情况。如果你看长期累计亏损，它们达到170亿，但这应该与这些亚洲SPAC推出之前的标准融资方式相比，即优先可转换债券。
随着股价上涨，这在资产负债表上体现为权益亏损，但对于那些债券，他们不得不赋予其更高的价值，而这并不被视为净利润中的真实亏损。
If you look at the cash flows, they have decreased by a billion. They spent, I believe, 400 million on buybacks and 600 million on acquisitions. Okay, that's what we have regarding cash flows.
If you look at the long- term accumulated losses, they amount to 17 billion, but that should be compared to the standard financing before these Asian SPACs were launched , which was preferred convertible bonds.
As the share price rose, this affected the balance sheet as a loss in equity, but for those bonds , they had to assign a greater value to them, and this is not considered a real loss in net income.
然而，他们在第一年亏损了很多，此后亏损减少，现在他们已经扭转了这一趋势，走向盈利。自“Spak”IPO以来，权益已经稳定；最初下降，但现在又在增长。
However, they lost a lot of money in the first year, and less so thereafter , and now they have reversed that trend towards profitability. Equity has stabilized since the "Spak" IPO ; it declined initially, but is now growing again.
这里你可以看到现金状况，约占市值的30%到25%。他们将把这20亿美元用于收购和股票回购。因此，他们计划未来业务实现高度正向现金流，然后他们就可以扩张、合并，并打造他们的增长循环来加速这一进程。
Here you see the cash position, which represents about 30% to 25% of the market value. They will spend these two billion dollars on acquisitions and share buybacks. Therefore, they plan for their business to be highly cash flow-positive in the future, and they can then expand, merge, and create their growth loop to accelerate this.
他们还收购了台湾的Food Panda配送服务。这里你可以看到他们是如何起步的，通过收购Uber在东南亚的配送业务，然后推出GrabMart和GrabExpress，收购马来西亚的Yayai杂货、Neham Afreeze，诸如此类。
而现在我们有了Food Panda台湾和那里的金融应用。这也是以现金支付的，金额达6亿。
They also acquired the Food Panda delivery service in Taiwan. Here you can see how they started, by acquiring Uber's delivery operations in Southeast Asia , then launching GrabMart and GrabExpress, acquiring Yayai grocery in Malaysia, Neham Afreeze, and things like that.
And now we have Food Panda Taiwan and the financial app there. This was also paid in cash, amounting to 600 million.
所以，他们现在真的在押注，认为这笔收购就是关键。
So, they are now really betting with this acquisition that this is it .
嗯，内部人士正在卖出他们的股票。这件事到处都被负面讨论，但这是依据10b条款按预先设定的交易计划进行的。所以，他们只是在卖出。数量不多，145,000股，这里还有150,000股。
所以，这里那里五十万或一百万，考虑到这里股价是400,000。他们可能会在新加坡买一栋昂贵的新房子。
Well, the insiders are selling their shares. This has been discussed negatively everywhere, but it is done under a pre-set trading plan in accordance with Article 10b. So, they just sell .
It's not much, 145,000 shares, and 150,000 here. So, half a million or a million here and there, given that the share price here is 400,000. They might buy a new, expensive house in Singapore.
我稍微看了一下文本以及他们最近说的话。有一位董事会成员离开了。Uber仍然是最 大股东。不过，CEO持有B类股，所以他仍以60%的投票权控制着公司。
I have looked a little at the text and what they have said recently. There was a board member leaving. Uber remains the largest shareholder. However, the CEO owns Class B shares, so he still controls the company with 60% of the votes.
无论如何，他们仍在持续建设，以保障未来的市场，电动汽车，以及这个那个，试图扩张并赢得配送这场竞赛，现在他们又把金融体系也加了进来。下一个阶段，而这也是这类公司的问题之一，就是他们需要持续投资和建设。
In any case, they are still building to secure their market for the future, electric vehicles, and this and that, trying to expand and win the delivery game, and now they are adding the financial system as well.
The next stage, and this is one of the issues for these companies, is that they need to invest and build continuously.
不过，有了金融服务，我希望他们已经到达了通向盈利的临界点。如果亚洲没有金融冲击或灾难导致违约或利率问题，情况可能就没问题。
However, with financial services, they have , I hope, reached the tipping point towards profitability. If there are no financial shocks or disasters in Asia leading to defaults or interest rate problems, things may be fine.
增长引擎——如果你能打造出那个引擎，并通过出行、配送、广告和金融服务实现盈利，拥有5000万客户并把这一切整合起来——那可能看起来不错。他们或许能够实现这个息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）的疲弱。如果这些利润翻倍，股价很可能也会翻倍。
The growth engine—if you can create that engine and achieve profitability through mobility, delivery, advertising , and financial services, with 50 million customers and integrating all of that—it might look good.
They may be able to achieve this weakness in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization ( EBITDA). If these profits double, the share price is likely to double as well.
在比较配送时，我们发现这是一个竞争极其激烈的市场。你有那个应用。他们现在有了某种类似“一站式商店”的东西，其中包含融资，利润率更低。所以，这是一个买入当下没人想要的东西的机会。
When comparing delivery, we find that it is a highly competitive market . You have the app. They now have something like a " one-stop shop" that includes financing, with lower profit margins .
So, this is an opportunity to buy something that no one wants at the moment.
它受益于正在转为盈利的东南亚增长，这稍微降低了风险，但问题始终存在。越南有一项针对定价、支付等方面竞争的调查。如果这蔓延到亚洲其他地区，可能会是个问题，但这就是这门生意的本质。这是所有生意的本质。人必须应对这些事情。
It is exposed to Southeast Asian growth that is turning profitable, which reduces the risks a little, but problems always remain. There is an investigation in Vietnam into competition in pricing, payments, and things like that .
If this spreads to other parts of Asia, it could be a problem, but that's the nature of the business. That's the nature of all business. One must deal with these matters.
它现在很便宜。它还能更便宜吗？能。它能上涨吗？当然能。如果他们真的实现了那些利润，并开始进行更持续的股票回购，那么他们的价格就会被重估。然后你还有这些应用，它们就是存在着，并将继续存在下去。
It's cheap now. Could it get cheaper? Yes. Can it rise? certainly. If they actually reach those profits and start making more consistent share buybacks , then their price will be revalued.
And then you have these applications that simply exist, and will continue to exist.
我会把“Grab”加到这里，加入我过去几周看过的其他几家公司名单中。有很多有趣的风险与回报情形，“Grab”也是其中之一。不过，我认为这取决于你在寻找什么类型的公司？如果你在寻找能让你迅速获得50%的良好风险回报机会，这个就很有意思。
如果所有坏事情只是被推迟一年，而收购和合并成功，利润出现，那你就会赚到钱。如果你还能把握好时机，如果你能现在买入，然后如果价格进一步下跌，你再买更多并加以管理，那就要花功夫了。
所以，风险与回报很有意思，我会把它们放在这里的研究数据库里，你永远不知道我们什么时候会再回来看它们。
I'll add "Grab" here to the list of several other companies I've looked at over the past few weeks. There are many interesting risk-and-reward situations , and " Grab" is one of them as well.
However, I think it comes down to the type of companies you are looking for? If you are looking for good risk- reward opportunities where you can quickly achieve 50%, this is interesting.
If all the bad things are postponed for just one year, and the acquisition and merger are successful, and profits appear, then you will make money. If you can also manage the timing, if you can buy now, and then if the price drops further, you buy more and manage that, then that takes work.
So, the risk and reward are interesting, I'll put them here in the research database, and you never know when we might come back to them.
观察点
这个频道对 $GRAB 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。