HD 处于 52 周低点、股息率较高，估值便宜，但在当前增长停滞的情况下，其投资吸引力取决于能否重回增长。
逐段跳播
今天我要分享的第二只股票是家得宝，股票代码 HD。我在本周早些时候的视频里谈到了 Lowe's。所以，家得宝刚刚触及 52 周低点。过去 5 年它下跌了 14%，过去一年下跌了 28.5%。
Stock number two that I'm going to share today is Home Depot, ticker symbol HD. I talked about Lowe's in my video earlier this week. So, Home Depot just hit a 52-week low. It's down 14% over the past 5 years, and it's down 28.5% over the past year.
现在，人人都知道家得宝，美国伟大的零售商之一。现在，如果你想看看什么叫伟大，让我们谈谈他们从 2012 年一直到 2024 年的股息增长历程。这只股票曾是一台股息增长机器。然而，这是又一个增长放缓的案例。
过去 10 年，家得宝的股息上涨了 237%。这是 12.94% 的复合年增长率。然而，过去 3 年，它只上涨了 11.48%。这是 3.68% 的复合年增长率。而最近一次股息增加只有 1.3%。再上一次是 2.22%。
Now, everyone knows Home Depot, one of the great American retailers. Now, if you want to see great, let's talk about the dividend growth run they went on from 2012 all the way through 2024.
The stock was a dividend growth machine. However, this is another case of slowing growth. Over the past 10 years, the Home Depot dividend's up 237%. That's a 12.94% compound annual growth rate.
However, over the past 3 years, it's only up 11.48%. That's a 3.68% CAGR. And the most recent dividend increase was only 1.3%. The one prior that, 2.22%.
但是，这就是你的机会。你在 52 周低点买入它。所以，这意味着历史高位的成本收益率。过去 5 年，它目前处于第 100 百分位。所以，这是过去 5 年最高的股息率，3.18%。
这是前瞻性的，也是过去 10 年最高的之一，只被 2020 年新冠崩盘的峰值超越。如果我们追溯到 2007 年，在大金融危机期间它更高，这很合理。家得宝，它是一家五金店，一家家居零售商。
大金融危机期间房地产市场表现不佳。我们今天肯定不在同样的环境中，但家得宝所处的领域与那时不同。
But, here's your opportunity. You're buying it at a 52-week low. So, that means a historically high yield on cost. Over the past 5 years, it's currently in the 100th percentile.
So, this is the highest dividend yield over the past 5 years, 3.18%. This is forward-looking, and it's one of the highest over the past 10 years, only being beat by the peak of the 2020 COVID crash.
And if we go back to 2007, it was higher in the great financial crisis, which makes sense. Home Depot, it's a hardware store, a home retailer. The real estate market was not doing good in great financial crisis.
We are definitely not in that same environment today, but Home Depot's in a different space than it was back then.
那么，家得宝的股息安全性如何？目前自由现金流派息率是 61%。这是基于过去 12 个月的数据。2026 年是 72%，过去 10 年它一直是可持续的，但一直略有上升趋势。盈利派息率也一样，过去 10 年略有上升。
2026 年是 64%，过去 12 个月是 64.8%。所以，总的来说，我并不特别担心家得宝会削减股息。
So, how's the dividend safety of Home Depot doing? Right now has a 61% free cash flow payout ratio. That's based on the trailing 12 months. It was 72% in 2026, and it's always been sustainable over the past 10 years, but it has been trending slightly upwards.
Same with the earnings payout ratio, it's gone slightly upwards over the past 10 years. It was 64% in 2026 and 64.8% over the trailing 12 months. So, overall, I'm not super worried about a dividend cut at Home Depot.
不过，我会给你看几个我担心的地方。增长正在放缓。过去5年，调整后每股收益下降了1%，也就是说基本原地踏步。而再往前5年则是非常出色的增长。好到在过去10年里，每股收益上涨了139%，接近10%的年复合增长率。
所以问题在于，他们能否重回那种增长，重回Home Depot历史上这种高增长的记录。目前来看，分析师并不这么认为。他们预计未来几年每股收益将实现中个位数增长，这不算差，但也不算好。
But, I'll show you a few things I am worried about. Growth is slowing down. Over the past 5 years, adjusted earnings per share is down 1%, so it's moved nowhere. The prior 5 years though were fantastic growth.
So much so that over the past 10 years, the earnings per share is up 139%. Nearly a 10% CAGR. So, the question is whether they can get back to that growth and this historic track record of high growth at Home Depot.
Now, right now, analysts are not necessarily thinking so. They're projecting mid-single-digits earnings per share growth in the coming years, which is not bad, but it's not great.
平心而论，自由现金流的表现略好一些，过去5年增长了24%，年复合增长率为4.75%。但这开始触及我对Home Depot股票的警示信号，而且这和我之前提到Lowe's股票时说的有些类似。
他们多年来一直在做愚蠢的股票回购。2021年回购了140亿美元。作为参照，他们目前的年度回购规模是92.2亿美元。所以，他们有连续多年股票回购和股息支付都远高于所产生的现金。而现实是，其中一部分是靠债务完成的。
这就是为什么你会看到Home Depot的净债务在过去十年大幅上升。目前为正604亿美元。
Now, to be fair, free cash flow is doing slightly better, up 24% over the past 5 years. That's a 4.75% CAGR. But, this starts to get into my red flags with Home Depot stock, and it's somewhat similar to what I was mentioning with Lowe's stock.
They were doing stupid share repurchases for many years. $14 billion in 2021. For context, they have an annual that's currently $9.22 billion. So, they had many years in a row where their share repurchases and dividend payments were well above the cash they were generating.
And the reality is they did some of that with debt. So, that's why you see Home Depot's net debt go up dramatically over the past decade. It's currently at positive $60.4 billion.
Lowe's的情况完全一样，他们用的是完全相同的套路。所以我坐在这里分析Home Depot，我最关心的就是增长在哪里？如果公司不增长，你就得以便宜的价格买入这只股票。幸运的是，它现在处于52周低点，所以正越来越接近合理价值。
而且过去5年，市盈率中位数为22.88，所以目前它的交易价格低于其历史倍数。但现实是，合理价值并没有增长，它是停滞的。不过，从长期来看它确实增长过。如果他们能恢复增长，那这可能是一个不错的买入机会。
举个例子，在大金融危机之后的很多年里，合理价值实际上是下降的。但股价也大幅下跌，于是形成了这种绝佳的条件：你以便宜的估值买入，然后他们迎来了此后十年、十五年的增长。所以，如果你现在考虑买入Home Depot股票，它确实是相当长一段时间以来最便宜的，但一切归根结底取决于增长。
This is the same exact story with Lowe's, they did the same exact playbook. So, I'm sitting here analyzing Home Depot, and my big thing is just where's the growth? If the company's not growing, you got to buy the stock cheap.
Now, luckily it's at its 52-week low, so it's getting closer to a fair value. And over the past 5 years, the median P/E ratio is 22.88, so it's currently trading below its historic multiple.
But the reality is is that the fair value's not growing. It's stagnant. Now, it has grown over the long run. If they can return to growth, then it could be a good buying opportunity.
As an example, the fair value actually dropped for many years following the Great Financial Crisis. But the stock price was also down a lot, so created this awesome condition of you're buying in at cheap valuation, and then they had a decade, 15 years of growth after that.
So, if you're thinking of buying Home Depot stock right now, it's definitely the cheapest it's been in a while, but it all comes down to growth.
这个频道对 $HD 的历次判断
Dividend Data 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。