Hims & Hers是一只长期成长股,潜力强劲,其营收增长重新加速、订阅用户增长以及利润率扩张机会为其提供了支撑。
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Hims & Hers,尽管今年经历了这一切,实际上今年仍下跌近 20%,但你可以看到股价在 2 月底触底。自那以来,上涨近 100%,仅小幅回调。他们在 7 月初的交易价格接近每股 40 美元。
所以,自那以来,下跌约 25%。这是一只波动性很大的股票。所以,投资者需要记住这一点。
Hims & Hers, as for everything that it has gone through this year, is actually still down almost 20% for the year, but you can see shares bottomed in late February. Since then, up nearly 100% pulled back just a little bit. They were trading at nearly $40 per share in early July. So, since then, down about 25%. Very volatile stock. So, something to keep in mind for investors.
但是,Hims & Hers 的势头正在朝着正确的方向发展。所以,如果我们看他们的总收入和收入增长率,这就是过去一个季度左右的变化。所以,这里有几件事在发生。首先,在 2024 年,这是他们在平台上引入 GLP-1 的时候。
这些是复合 GLP-1。所以,在整个 2024 年下半年和 2025 年第一季度,在这些复合 GLP-1 的推动下,增长惊人。那个漏洞被 FDA 堵住了。这从 2025 年第二季度开始影响 Hims & Hers。
这就是为什么你看到这个增长率开始放缓。增长率一路下降到 2026 年第一季度的 3.8%。但是,那时你开始受到他们与诺和诺德最近达成的协议的影响。他们现在销售礼来的 GLP-1。
他们真正重新配置了他们的减肥业务,现在他们增加了像实验室这样的新产品。
But, the momentum for Hims & Hers is moving in the right direction. So, if we look at their total revenue and their revenue growth rate, this is what has changed over the past quarter or so. So, there's a few things going on here. First of all, in 2024, this is when they introduced GLP-1s on the platform. These were compounded GLP-1s. So, throughout the back half of 2024 and then the first quarter of 2025, phenomenal growth on the back of those compounded GLP-1s. That loophole was closed by the FDA. That has started impacting Hims & Hers in the second quarter of 2025. That's why you see this growth rate start to slow. The growth rate all goes all the way down to 3.8% for the first quarter of 2026. But, that's when you start to get the impact of the recent agreement that they have with Novo Nordisk. They are now selling Eli Lilly's GLP-1s. They really reconfigured their weight loss business and now they've added in new products like labs.
随着他们的减肥产品现在在 Hers 这边,你可以通过该订阅获得一个秤。所以,这正变得越来越像一个增长平台。他们不会生产他们的大部分产品,但他们会尝试寻找仿制药。他们会尝试寻找品牌产品的低成本版本。
思考 Hims & Hers 的方式是真正将其视为医疗保健领域的聚合者。他们希望成为你遇到医疗保健问题时首先去的地方。他们希望成为你与之互动并输入数据的地方。我的体重看起来怎么样?
我的……我是否在服药?我的肌肉量是多少?我的目标是什么?所有这些事情都是他们希望参与你的医疗保健旅程的地方,然后如果他们参与了这个循环,他们将能够为你提供更多的产品、更多的解决方案。
With their weight loss product now on the Hers side of things, you can get a scale with that subscription. So, this is becoming much more of a growth platform. They're not going to be producing most of their products, but they're going to be trying to find generics. They're going to be trying to find low-cost versions of branded products. And the way to think about Hims & Hers is really as an aggregator in healthcare. They want to be the first place that you go when you have a healthcare question. They want to be a place that you're interacting with where where you're putting your data. What does my weight look like? What is my Am I taking my medications? What is my muscle mass? What are my goals? All of these things is where they want to be involved in your health healthcare journey and then they're going to be able to serve you more products, more solutions if they are involved in that loop.
我们开始看到一些影响。所以,我们 2026 年第二季度的 38% 增长率,其中一些来自本季度完成的 Eucalyptus 收购。但是,这也正在与 GLP-1 达到更稳定的状态,销售更多品牌产品,更多地进入订阅解决方案。
We're starting to see some of that impact. So, this 38% growth rate we had for the second quarter of 2026, some of this is from the Eucalyptus acquisition that closed during the quarter. But, this is also getting to a more steady state with GLP-1s, selling more branded products, getting more into that subscription solutions.
对 Hims & Hers 来说,另一件非常重要的事情是我密切跟踪的两个指标。那就是订阅者数量,你可以在这里看到。这是财政 AI 中的所有 KPI。然后还有,每个订阅者每月花费多少?
好的,让我们把这两件事联系起来。你可以在这里看到订阅者再次跃升。这部分是 Eucalyptus 收购的结果,但订阅者现在跃升至 290 万。我认为到 2026 年底这将轻松超过 300 万。
另一个积极的迹象是每个订阅者的支出也在上升。那是第二季度的记录。这将持续上升,因为如果你考虑一个减肥解决方案,订阅者每月至少 300 美元。所以,随着他们有更多这样的客户,他们将拥有更多高价值客户,而不是那些购买 ED 治疗或脱发治疗的人,这些治疗每月大约在 20、30、40 美元的范围内。
The other thing that is really important for Hims & Hers is the two metrics that I follow very closely. That is the number of subscribers, which you can see here. This is all the KPIs in fiscal AI. And then also, what is each of those subscribers spending each month? Okay, so let's tie these first two things. And you And you can see here that subscribers jumped again. Part of this is the Eucalyptus acquisition, but subscribers jumped now at 2.9 million. I think that will easily pass 3 million by the end of 2026. And the other positive sign is that the spend per subscriber also ticking higher. That was a record in the second quarter. That is going to keep going up because if you think about a weight loss solution that's at least $300 a month for subscribers. So, that's as they have more of those customers, they're going to have more high-value customers rather than people who are buying things like ED treatments or hair loss treatments, which are more in that 20, 30, 40 dollars a month kind of range.
所以,如果你考虑医疗保健领域的顺风,Hims & Hers 现在是一家全球医疗保健公司,市值仅为 64 亿美元。这是一个数万亿美元的行业,Hims & Hers 是颠覆者。他们是需求的聚合者。
长期来看,这可能是一个万亿美元的业务。这对投资者来说是一个巨大的潜力。所以,这是我拥有的股票之一。这是不对称投资组合中最大的头寸。就像我说的,波动性很大,但长期来看,这就是我在寻找的复合收入增长的那种潜力。
他们甚至还没有开始扩大利润率,所以从运营角度来看,这接近盈亏平衡。而且我们有很多倍数扩张的机会。目前企业价值与销售额之比仅为 2.8。如果我们看远期,企业价值与销售额之比低于 2。
所以,这就是我从投资中想要的。大量的增长、利润率扩张的潜力,以及一旦市场意识到这是一个长期复合增长者,倍数扩张的潜力。
So, if you think about the tailwinds in healthcare, Hims & Hers now a global healthcare company with a market cap of just 6.4 billion dollars. This is a multi-trillion dollar industry that Hims & Hers is the disruptor. They're the aggregator of demand. That is potentially a trillion dollar business long-term. That is a phenomenal potential for investors. So, this is one of the stocks that I own. It's the biggest position in the asymmetric portfolio. Like I said, very volatile, but long-term this is the kind of potential I'm looking for with compounding revenue growth. They have not even started to expand their margins yet, so that's right near break even from an operating basis. And we got a ton opportunity for multiple expansion. Enterprise value to sales right now is just 2.8. If we look on a forward basis, enterprise value to sales is under two. So, this is what I want from my investments. Lots of growth, potential for margin expansion, and potential for multiple expansion once the market realizes this is a long-term compounder.
所以,这是我拥有的股票之一。这是不对称投资组合中最大的头寸。
So, this is one of the stocks that I own. It's the biggest position in the asymmetric portfolio.
所以,我今天在这里谈到的四只股票,Hims & Hers、Zeta Global、Lyft 和 Owlet。让我知道你认为哪一个潜力最大。这四只都是我拥有的股票。
So, the stock four stocks that I talked about here today, Hims & Hers, Zeta Global, Lyft, and Owlet. Let me know which one of those you think has the highest potential. These four are all stocks that I own.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西,一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次,我们不合并,也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $HIMS 的历次判断
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。