$HIMS

对于风险承受能力较高的长期投资者而言,HIMS 因增长前景强劲且估值合理而值得买入。

看涨他说的是几年内
《Is Hims & Hers Stock a Buy Right Now in September? | HIMS Stock Analysis》
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA发布 2026-09-16 · 16 段内容
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Hims & Hers 管理层向投资者重申了其长期业绩指引。管理层预计,到2030年营收至少达到65亿美元,调整后息税折旧摊销前利润达到13亿美元。

Hims & Hers management team reiterated its longer-term guidance to investors. The management team is forecasting at least $6.5 billion in revenue by 2030 and $1.3 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

但这是否意味着 Hims & Hers 的股票对长期投资者来说是一个买入机会?因此,到2030年营收至少达到60亿美元,将是其最近12个月营收总额的两倍多。在这一时期,Hims & Hers 报告的营收为26亿美元。

这较2020年的约2.5亿美元有所增长。这一直是全球增长最快的公司之一。

But does this make Hims & Hers stock a buying opportunity for long-term investors? So, revenue of at least $6 billion by 2030 would be more than double their most recent trailing 12-month total.

In that period, Hims & Hers reported $2.6 billion in revenue. That's up from around $250 million in 2020. This has been one of the fastest-growing companies in the world.

该业务正通过增加新产品和增加客户来实现增长。他们突破了一个重要的里程碑,会员数超过300万。对 Eucalyptus 的收购使公司得以强劲地拓展国际市场,该品类的增长与去年同期相比增长了10倍以上。

The business is increasing by adding new products and increasing customers. They surpassed a huge milestone of over 3 million members. The acquisition of Eucalyptus has allowed the company to expand internationally robustly with growth in that category increasing by over 10x compared to the same quarter last year.

这正是 Hims & Hers 介入、切入该品类并快速增长的领域。

This is where Hims & Hers is stepping in and hitting that category and growing rapidly.

如今,营收的增长也在帮助公司实现净利润层面的盈利。不过,净利润层面的盈利能力并不像投资者所希望的那样稳定。它一直波动不定,时涨时跌,而在最近一个时期,营业利润率的盈利能力持平。这较2025年的约8%有所下降。

Now, the increase in revenue is also helping the company achieve profitability on the bottom line. Although profitability on the bottom line is not as consistent as investors would hope.

It's been volatile, up and down, and in the most recent period, profitability in terms of operating profit margin was flat. That's down from about 8% in 2025.

Hims & Hers 正在为美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)批准肽类产品做准备,这一批准或许会在今年晚些时候到来。因此,其中一些投资正在净利润层面对公司造成影响。公司还在营销上投入更大比例,以触达新客户,并让客户了解其可及性以及所提供的服务和产品。

Hims & Hers is investing in preparation for FDA approval of peptides, perhaps coming later this year. And so, some of those investments are hitting the company on the bottom line.

It's also investing a larger percentage in marketing to reach new customers and let customers know about its availability and services and products it offers.

投入资本回报率同样波动不定。在2025年达到近35%的峰值后,其投入资本回报率转为负值,为8.44%。2021年也发生了类似的情况,当时公司的投入资本回报率一度低至-35%,随后飙升至35%,如今又回落。

Returns on invested capital have been similarly volatile. After reaching a peak nearly 35% in 2025, its returns on invested capital turned negative at 8.44%. And similar things happened in 2021 where the company's returns on invested capital dropped as low as -35% before soaring up to 35% and now falling back down.

因此,正如其营业利润率一样,投入资本回报率也是波动不定的。我认为投资者可以预期这一品类还会出现更多同样的情况,起起落落,直到公司达到更大的规模,届时新产品开发和产品线的撤除对业务的影响不会像现在这样大。

So, just like their operating profit margin, returns on invested capital are volatile. And I think investors can expect more of the same in this category, ups and downs until the company reaches larger scale where new product developments and removal of product offerings don't impact the business as largely as they're now impacting the business.

当然,如果公司确实实现了到2030年调整后息税折旧摊销前利润超过10亿美元的预期目标,那将大大有助于改善公司整体的盈利能力和利润率。

Of course, if the company does hit that target of adjusted EBITDA expectations of over a billion dollars by 2030, that'll go a long way in improving the company's overall profitability and profit margins.

估值也一直起伏不定,但在最近一个时期,其预期市盈率降至35。按照这一估值指标衡量,这接近该股交易区间的低端。但同样,这一指标的波动既来自分子也来自分母。其市场价格一直波动不定,大幅上下浮动。

此外,其每股收益也一直波动不定,剧烈上下浮动。所以,当分子和分母都体现出波动性时,这就会造成整体指标的波动。

Valuation has also been choppy, but in the most recent period, its forward price-to-earnings ratio fell to 35. This is near the lower end of where this stock has traded for according to this valuation metric.

But again, volatility in this metric is both on the numerator and the denominator. It's market price has been volatile, fluctuating significantly up and down. Additionally, its earnings per share have been volatile, fluctuating violently up and down.

So when you have both the numerator and denominator signific- signifying volatility, that's going to create volatility in the overall metric.

因此,Hims & Hers 属于市场上可买股票中风险较高的一端,尤其是在医疗保健股或制药股中风险较高的一端,而我认为 Hims & Hers 正处于这些类别的中间位置。

So Hims & Hers is on the riskier end of stocks you can buy in the marketplace, especially on the riskier end of healthcare stocks or pharmaceutical stocks, where I think Hims & Hers is in the middle of those categories.

其贝塔值为2.4,而许多医疗保健公司和制药公司的贝塔值低于1,有些甚至低于0.5。因此,一家制药/医疗保健公司以2.4的贝塔值交易,确实波动很大。

It boasts a beta of 2.4, while many healthcare companies and pharmaceutical companies boast a beta of less than one, some even boast a beta of less than 0.5. So for a pharmaceutical/healthcare company to trade with a beta of 2.4 is volatile, to be sure.

但话虽如此,我计算出该股的合理价值为27.50美元,而这恰好接近当前28.80美元的市场价格。因此,无论我是以预期市盈率为基础衡量,还是以贴现现金流为基础衡量,Hims & Hers 的股票看起来估值合理。

But all that being said, I calculated a fair value for this stock at $27.50, which is right about where the current market price is at $28.80. So whether I'm measuring on a forward price to earnings basis or whether I'm measuring on a discounted cash flow basis, Hims & Hers stock looks fairly valued.

因此,鉴于其巨大的增长机会、已经展现出的增长,以及我认为已具备被颠覆条件的品类,我将 Hims & Hers 的股票评为风险承受能力较高的长期投资者的买入机会。

So given its significant growth opportunity and the growth that it's already demonstrated, and the category that I think is ripe for disruption, I'm ranking Hims & Hers stock as a buying opportunity for long-term investors that have a higher risk tolerance.

这只股票不应被没有风险承受能力的投资者考虑。我不希望投资于医疗保健公司和制药公司的投资者在风险性方面将 Hims & Hers 与那一类别混为一谈。

This stock shouldn't be considered for investors that don't have a risk tolerance. I don't want investors in healthcare companies and pharmaceutical companies to confuse Hims & Hers in that same category in terms of riskiness.

因此,如果你是那些公司的投资者,这并不一定意味着你也应该成为这家公司的投资者。这只应被风险承受能力高的投资者考虑。但如果你确实如此,那么我认为,在权衡风险与回报时,这是一个有吸引力的机会。

So, if you're an investor in those companies, it doesn't necessarily mean you should be an investor in this company. This should only be considered for investors that have a high risk tolerance.

But, if you do, then I think it's an attractive opportunity when considering risk versus reward.

观察点

调整后EBITDA到2030年超过10亿美元
若实现,将改善盈利能力和利润率
到2030年未来财务报告
支持关于盈利能力改善的看多论点

这个频道对 $HIMS 的历次判断

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-16看涨本条
Hims & Hers 管理层向投资者重申了其长期业绩指引。管理层预计,到2030年营收至少达到65亿美元,调整后息税折旧摊销前利润达到13亿美元。
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