HSY 对长期投资者而言是一个绝佳的买入机会，信心中等，因为其具有上行潜力和低风险。
逐段跳播
尽管可可市场近期价格波动，好时管理层仍确信2027年将出现价格通缩。换言之，好时管理层预测2027年可可价格将下跌。
Despite the recent price volatility in the cocoa market, Hershey's management team is confident that 2027 will bring price deflation. In other words, Hershey's management team is forecasting declining cocoa prices in 2027.
由于这是公司生产过程中的主要投入，投入成本的降低应会在2027年及可能之后改善公司的利润率。但这会让好时股票成为买入机会吗？
And since that's a major input to the company's process, the lower cost of inputs should improve the company's margin profile in 2027 and probably beyond. But does this make Hershey's stock a buying opportunity?
好时在过去十年中通过有机增长和收购实现了显著的营收增长。公司销售额从2017年的70亿美元增至最近12个月期间的超过120亿美元。
Hershey's has managed to generate significant revenue growth over the previous decade, both organically and through acquisitions. The company's sales have increased from 7 billion in 2017 up over 12 billion in the most recent trailing 12-month period.
更大的规模使公司获得更好的单位经济效益，因为它已经需要向分销网络送货。如果卡车装载更多产品送往这些分销中心，就能降低送货成本。这只是规模扩大如何为像好时这样的公司带来更高盈利的一个例子。
Larger scale allows the company better unit economics because it already has to make deliveries to its distribution network. And if it has more product in its trucks that it's delivering to these distribution centers, it lowers the cost of making those deliveries. And that's just one example of how greater scale results in better profitability for a company like Hershey's.
我提到了可可价格的商品波动，你可以看到这反映在公司的营业利润率上，部分由于可可价格上涨，营业利润率出现下滑。在截至2026年1月的12个月期间，其营业利润率从约24%降至约13%。
I mentioned the commodity volatility in the price of cocoa and you can see that reflected in the company's operating profit margin, which collapsed as a result partly of those higher cocoa prices. Its operating margins fell from around 24% down to about 13% over the trailing 12-month period, which ended January of 2026.
此后，波动有所缓解，管理层确信这种情况将持续，其营业利润率已改善至17.7%。好时股票通常是市场上波动最小的股票之一。过去5年其贝塔值仅为0.1。这一指标将好时股价变动与标普500指数变动进行比较。
这意味着当标普500指数上涨1%时，好时股票上涨0.1%，下跌时也是如此。当标普500指数下跌1%时，好时股票仅下跌0.1%。因此，它的波动性较小。股价变动不那么剧烈，这对风险厌恶型投资者来说可能是一个非常有吸引力的特点。
Since then, the volatility has eased and the management team is confident that this will persist and their operating profit margins have improved to 17.7%. Hershey's stock is typically one of the least volatile stocks in the market. It boasts a beta of just 0.1 over the previous 5-year period. This measurement compares Hershey's stock price movement with the movement of the S&P 500 index. That means when the S&P 500 index moves up by 1%, Hershey's stock moves up by 0.1% and the same thing on the downside. When the S&P 500 index moves down by 1%, Hershey's stock moves down by just 0.1%. So, it's less volatile. The stock price moves less violently and that could be a very attractive feature for risk-averse investors.
因此，对于希望从更安全的投资转向股市的投资者来说，好时可以是一个很好的入门股票，让你以低于平均股票的波动性接触股市。
And so, investors looking to make that jump from safer investments into the stock market, Hershey's can be a great entry stock to get yourself exposed to the stock market with less volatility than the average stock.
话虽如此，2026年对好时来说波动比往常更大。其股价最高涨至240美元，最低跌至每股170美元。
That being said, 2026 has been more volatile than usual for Hershey's. Its stock price increased as high as $240 and fell as low as $170 per share.
通常，你不会看到好时出现这种剧烈波动。当然，这是商品市场剧烈波动导致可可价格上涨和价格波动的结果，这反映在好时的股价变动上，因为该商品的价格与好时的利润和成本高度相关。
Typically, you don't see this kind of violent movement from Hershey's. And of course, it's a result of the violent movements in the commodity markets resulting in those higher prices and fluctuating prices for cocoa and that's reflected in Hershey's share price movement since the prices of that commodity is so significantly correlated to the profits and costs of Hershey's.
好时目前的远期市盈率为18.4，接近该股多年来最便宜的水平。我今天也更新了好时的现金流估值模型，得出的结论是这只股票价值每股252美元。
Hershey's is now trading at a forward price to earnings of 18.4, which is near the cheapest this stock has been going back several years. I also updated my cash flow valuation model for Hershey's today, and I came to the conclusion that this stock is worth $252 per share.
重要的是，我更新并上调了公司的贝塔值。我没有将贝塔值计为0.1。我反映了公司股价和商品市场波动中更近期的波动性，并将我的贝塔值上调至0.35。因此，我将公司的贝塔值提高了3.5倍，以纳入该股近期表现出的更大风险。
Importantly, I updated and adjusted upward the company's beta. I'm not counting the beta as 0.1. I'm reflecting the more recent volatility in the company's share price and the commodity markets movements and upgrading or increasing my beta measurement to 0.35. So, I increased the company's beta by 3 and 1/2 X to incorporate the greater risk the stock has demonstrated in recent months.
即使经过上述风险调整，我计算出的公允价值为252美元，远高于当前市场价格181美元。
Even after that risk adjustment upward, I calculated a fair value at $252, which is well above my current market price of $181.
鉴于市场价格与我公允价值估计之间的差异，我计算出好时股票在未来12至18个月内有约39%的上涨空间。因此，鉴于上涨潜力和好时股票相对较低的风险性质，我认为这对长期投资者来说是一个很好的买入机会。
我今天将重申对好时股票的买入评级，并且我对这一买入建议有相对中等的信心水平。
Given the difference between market price and my fair value estimate, I calculated an upside of about 39% for Hershey stock over the next 12 to 18 months. So, given the upside potential and the relatively low risk nature of Hershey stock, I think this is a great buying opportunity for long-term investors. I will reiterate my buy rating for Hershey stock today, and I have a relatively medium confidence level on this buy recommendation.
这个频道对 $HSY 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。