Intuit被低估,是一个价值投资标的,其基本面强劲且估值倍数处于历史低位。
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在今天的视频中,我将分享我对即将到来的财报周的看法,以及我将关注并可能在后续详细视频中深入分析的股票,包括对Nvidia的深入分析,以及一些可能成为价值投资的受挫软件股,比如Intuit和Salesforce。
In today's video, I'm going to give you my thoughts on this upcoming earnings week, the stocks I'll be watching and that I'll likely cover in detailed follow-up videos that includes an extended look at Nvidia and some beaten down software stocks that could be value plays companies like Inuit and Salesforce.
但有一家公司,我做过几个视频,我认为它是一个相当有趣的价值投资机会。无论你是价值投资者、成长投资者还是股息增长投资者,那就是Intuit,股票代码INTU。如果你一直在关注市场,你会知道软件股在过去一年半里受到了重创。Intuit也不例外。他们拥有QuickBooks、TurboTax、Mailchimp和Credit Karma,是美国一家相当大的软件公司。曾有一段时间,他们从历史高点下跌了67%。那是在大约一年的时间里。此后他们有所反弹,但肯定仍处于价值投资区域,尤其是相对于其历史交易水平而言。
But one company I've done a few videos on that I think is a pretty interesting value play. Whether you're a value investor, a growth investor, a dividend growth investor, and that's into it, ticker symbol INTU. If you've been following the market, you know software stocks have gotten beaten up over the past year and a half. In it's no different. They own QuickBooks, they own Turboax, they own Mailchimp, they own Credit Karma, pretty big software company in the US. And at one point, they were down 67% from their all-time high. And that was over the span of about a year. They've since rebounded a little bit, but it's still definitely in the value play territory, especially relative to how it's historically traded.
自从AI编码代理问世以来,基本上人们认为软件公司现在价值降低了。有人认为竞争可能会很快加剧。还有一个问题是,这些公司能否以今天完全相同的商业模式存在。所以像Intuit和Salesforce这样的公司(我稍后会讨论),它们被视为优质公司。它们以溢价倍数交易,因为人们认为它们是可靠的订阅收入,长期来看会持续增长。现在一些投资者对此表示质疑。但这可能是长期投资者的机会。
Since AI coding agents came out, basically, the thought has been that software companies are now less valuable. There's thoughts that there could be increased competition coming very quickly. And there's also a question about whether these companies can exist in the same exact business model they do today. So companies like in it and Salesforce which I'll discuss later, these were viewed as premium companies. They traded at premium multiples cuz they're thought to be reliable subscription revenue that was going to be there in the long run continue growing. And now some investors are questioning that. But that could be the opportunity for the long-term investor.
过去十二个月的每股收益处于历史最高水平,为234美元。同期股价下跌67%,而每股收益同比增长18.4%。从长期来看,它一直是盈利增长的复利机器。他们产生了大量自由现金流,过去十二个月为77亿美元,同比增长26%。过去十年,自由现金流的复合年增长率为26%。这就是INT成为股息增长股的原因。当前前瞻股息为4.80美元,前瞻股息收益率为1.3%。过去五年,他们的股息支付增加了一倍多,复合年增长率为15.2%。你可以看到,自2011年以来,他们每年都在提高股息。最近一次股息增幅为15.3%,前一次为15.5%。是的,股价已从近期低点回升,但肯定仍然便宜。如果我们看过去五年,这1.3%的收益率处于第94百分位,同期收益率中位数为0.65%。因此,与INT的历史交易水平相比,该股看起来便宜。股息非常可持续,自由现金流支付率为19.5%,这是他们过去十年中最低的水平之一。基于盈利支付率,为30.7%,非常可持续。如果我们看公司过去十二个月的每股收益和市盈率,这在我们称为PE分析器的工具中,类似于我们刚才看的收益率分析器。你可以看到,它目前处于第五百分位,意味着基于过去五年的历史市盈率较低。过去五年中,市盈率远低于中位数59。这是过去十二个月的GAAP每股收益。我们也可以看前瞻每股收益,这将是非GAAP的。同期市盈率中位数为31.72。我们目前的前瞻市盈率为13.5。所以,这是明年的每股收益预期。这在历史上是低的,非常便宜。如果公司继续以每年10%到15%的速度增长盈利,事后看来,这将显得非常便宜。这是另一种看法。我们有价值图表工具。如果我们回到前瞻每股收益,看过去五年的中位数倍数31.72,并假设这是股票的隐含公允价值,那么现在INT股票的交易价格比隐含公允价值低57%。如果它回升到五年中位数31.72,那么从今天的价格将有134%的上涨空间。这甚至没有考虑未来几年的增长。那只是基于股票交易倍数的重新评级。实际业务和盈利将继续随时间增长。至少分析师现在是这样预期的。近期历史也显示了这一点。即使股票没有向上重新评级,当前盈利预期也预计股票将继续增长。到2030年,股票将有69%的上涨空间,年化增长14.4%。如果股票重新评级回到历史中位数,那对股票来说将是巨大的。所以,这些是我对INT的一些看法,我认为它仍然是一个相当有趣的价值投资。我肯定会在其公布盈利后报道它。我会给它一个完整的详细视频,提供更多信息。所以,如果你想看,请订阅。
Into its earnings per share over the trailing 12 months, it's at an all-time high $234. It's up 18.4% year-over-year in the same time where the stock fell 67%. And you can see in the long run into it has been a compounding machine of earnings growth. They generate a ton of free cash flow. 7.7 billion over the trailing 12 months. That's up 26% year-over-year. Over the past 10 years, a 26% compound annual growth rate of free cash flow. And this is why INT has become a dividend growth stock. The current forward-looking dividends $4.80. forward-looking dividend yield 1.3%. Over the past 5 years, they've more than doubled their dividend payment, growing at a 15.2% compound annual growth rate. And you can see they've been raising the dividend every single year going back to 2011. The most recent div increase was 15.3%. The one prior to that was 15.5%. And yes, the stock has gone up from its recent low, but it's still definitely cheap. If we look over the past 5 years, this 1.3% yield, it's in the 94th percentile, the median yield in that time is 0.65%. So compared to it, so compared to how into it has historically traded, the stock is looking cheap. The dividends super sustainable at a 19.5% free cash flow payout ratio. That's one of the lowest of the past 10 years for them. Based on an earnings payout ratio, it's 30.7%. Very sustainable. If we look at the company's earnings per share over the trailing 12 months and we look at their PE ratio, this is in our tool called the PE analyzer, similar to the yield analyzer we were just looking at. And you can see that it's currently in the fifth percentile, meaning that it's historically low P ratio based on the past 5 years. Every single day, the P ratio over the past 5 years, this is well below the median, which is 59. This is trailing 12 months gap earnings per share. We can also look at the forward-looking earnings per share. This would be non-GAAP. The median multiple in that time is 31.72. We're currently at a forward-looking P of 13.5. So, this is next year's earnings per share expectations. That's historically low and super cheap. If the company continues to grow earnings 10 to 15% a year, in hindsight, that will look very cheap. Here's another way to look at it. We have the value graph tool. If we go back to that forwardlooking earnings per share and we look at the median multiple over the past five years that 31.72 and we assume that to be the implied fair value of the stock whenever it's trading at that multiple then right now into it stock is trading 57% below the implied fair value. If it ever got back up to that 5-year median of 31.72 it would be 134% upside from today's price. And this isn't even accounting for the growth in the years to come. That's just a rerating based on the multiple the stock is trading at. The actual business and earnings will continue growing over time. At least that's what analysts are expecting right now. And that's what recent history shows for into it stock. Even if the stock doesn't get rerated upwards, current earnings estimates are expecting the stock to continue growing. The stock would have 69% upside by 2030, 14.4% annualized growth. And if the stock gets rerated back up to its historical median, and if the stock gets rerated back up to its historical median, that'd be huge for the stock. So, those were some of my thoughts on into it, I think it's still a pretty interesting value play. I will definitely be covering that after it reports earnings. I'll give it its own full detailed video with some more information. So, subscribe if you want to see that.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西,一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次,我们不合并,也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $INTU 的历次判断
Dividend Data 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。