INTU 的估值可能具有吸引力；尽管存在合理的 AI 相关折价，13.3 倍的远期市盈率仍显得偏低，并得到约 10.82% 预期每股收益增长的支持。
逐段跳播
最后，我们来看一下这家公司。他们最近批准了大约15%的股息上调。所以，现在当我们谈到这家公司时，这已经不是什么秘密了。这是一只软件股，在过去一年里遭到重创，下跌了48.11%，而抛售真正开始于今年年初。如果我们看年初至今的回报，下跌了大约49%。
And then lastly, we have into it. They recently approved a roughly 15% dividend increase. So, now when we talk about in it, it's not been a secret. This is a software stock that has been decimated over the last year, down by 48.11% and the sell-off really started at the beginning of this year.
If we look at year-to- date returns, down by around 49%.
当然，这会把起始股息率推高。如果我们看股息明细表，你会看到起始股息率位于1.42%。所以，这是一个相对较低的股息率。它高于整个标普500指数，但过去5年和10年的股息增长非常惊人，大约14%到14.5%。
所以，最近的股息上调与管理层历史上的股息增长速度完全一致。当然，他们只用了大约19.5%的自由现金流来实际支付股息。5年自由现金流复合年增长率约为21.7%。
Of course, this pushes the starting yield higher. If we look at them on the dividend breakdown sheet, what you'll see is the starting yield is sitting at 1.42%. So, that's a relatively low yield.
It is higher than the S&P 500 as a whole, but dividend growth over the last 5 and 10 years has been incredible. roughly 14 to 14.5%. So, the recent dividend hike is right in line with where management has historically been growing the dividend.
And of course, they're only using about 19.5% of their free cash flow to actually pay out dividends. The 5-year free cash flow cagger is about 21.7%.
那么，这带来了什么结果？当我们在Seeking Alpha上查看这家公司时，从估值角度看，事情就变得非常有意思了。仔细看看这个。历史上，这家公司一直以溢价交易。为什么？因为这是一门资本轻资产业务。
一门以可观速度增长自由现金流、以可观速度增长股息的资本轻资产业务。所以，它们的非GAAP市盈率倍数在35到40之间。
So, what's the result of this? Well, when we look at in it here on Seeking Alpha, this is where things get really interesting from a valuation perspective. Take a close look at this.
Historically, into it has traded at a premium. Why? Well, because it's a capital light business. A capital light business that was growing free cash flow at a substantial rate, growing dividends at a substantial rate.
So, they traded at PE multiples of anywhere from 35 to 40 on a non-GAAP basis.
还记得视频前面我们谈过从回报来源的角度来看股票吗？我们可以看到，过去一年下跌的来源纯粹是估值倍数的下降。它们现在的远期市盈率只有13.3，而5年平均值为32.6。市盈率倍数相差约60%。想想就令人震惊。
And remember how earlier in the video we talked about looking at stocks through the lens of sources of returns? Well, we can see the source of the decline over the last year is strictly a valuation multiple decline.
They're now trading at a Ford PE of just 13.3 when the 5-year average is 32.6. That's about a 60% difference in the PE multiple. Just mind-blowing to think about.
那么，我们该怎么看待这件事？这是否自动意味着机会？不一定。如果预计该股未来盈利增长速度会大幅放缓，那么市盈率倍数的下降就是合理的。现在，关于这家公司是否真的会如此，显然存在很多争论。
So, what do we need to think about this? Does this automatically mean opportunity? Not necessarily. A PE multiple decline can be justified if the stock is projected to grow earnings at a much slower rate in the future.
Now, there's obviously a lot of debate as to whether or not that'll actually be the case for in it.
但如果我们直接跳到敏感性分析，看看这家公司，往下看你会看到，到2030年按复合年增长率计算的预计每股收益增长率仍然位于大约10.82%。所以，对于一只远期市盈率倍数只有13.3的股票来说，预计的盈利增长非常强劲。
But if we just simply jump over to our sensitivity analysis and look at in it, what you'll see if we come down here is that the projected EPS growth rate through the year 2030 on a compounded annual growth rate basis is still sitting at roughly 10.82%.
So that's very strong earnings growth projected for a stock that's only trading at a forward PE multiple of 13.3.
那么，未来AI颠覆会是什么样子？我们知道AI将改变商业世界的一切。因此，这家公司可能确实应该相对于其历史平均水平以折价交易。不过，在这些价格下，13.3的市盈率倍数看起来确实有点低。
So, what will AI disruption look like in the future? We know AI is going to change everything in the business world. And as a result, into it likely does deserve to trade at a discount relative to its historic average.
However, a PE multiple of 13.3 does seem a bit low at these prices.
这个频道对 $INTU 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。