IonQ 对高风险投资者而言值得买入；按未来销售额 20 倍估值，支持 12-18 个月内至少 17% 的上行空间。
逐段跳播
对于 IonQ 股票的投资者来说，我们有一个好消息，因为公司管理团队宣布在量子计算方面取得了重大突破。这一消息公布后，股价上涨了超过 5%，我当然对此感到高兴。
We have great news for IonQ stock investors , as the company's management team has announced a major breakthrough in quantum computing. The stock price rose by more than 5% after this announcement, and of course I am happy about that .
原因是我最近将 IonQ 股票上调为适合极高风险投资者的买入机会，因为它是你能买到的最具风险的股票之一。但它同时也带来了当今股市中你能看到的最大增长机会之一。
The reason is that I recently upgraded IonQ stock to a buy opportunity for very high- risk investors, given that it is one of the riskiest stocks you can buy. But it also comes with one of the biggest growth opportunities you can see in the stock market today.
那么，在股价出现这一大幅上涨之后，我是否仍然认为 IonQ 股票代表着一个买入机会？IonQ 报告称，研究人员在一颗标准 CPU 上成功测试了一个完整的实时量子纠错解码器。
So, after this significant increase in the share price, do I still believe that IonQ stock represents a buying opportunity? Well, IonQ reported that researchers successfully tested a complete real-time quantum error detection decoder on a single standard CPU.
量子纠错旨在检测并纠正量子系统中由噪声引起的错误，从而帮助支持更大、更可靠的设备。因此，在开发量子计算技术时，纠错是一项必须掌握的关键能力。
Now, quantum error correction is designed to detect and correct errors caused by noise in quantum systems, helping to support larger and more reliable devices. Therefore, error correction is a crucial skill that must be mastered when developing quantum computing technology.
我不会展开更多细节，因为这非常复杂且奇特，但这条消息的要点是 IonQ 正在实现并达到关键阶段。当你投资像 IonQ 这样处于早期阶段的创新型公司时，这一点极其重要。
I will not go into more detail because it is very complicated and strange, but the gist of the news is that IonQ is achieving and reaching key stages . This is extremely important when you are investing in an early-stage, innovative company like IonQ.
公司需要的是在合理的时间范围内达到其基础阶段。这将使公司能够从投资者那里获得更多资金，从而有时间进入下一阶段。事情就这样一步一步推进，一个又一个创新，直到最终创造出一款能够产生数十亿美元收入的创新产品。
What the company needs is to reach its basic stages within a reasonable timeframe. This will allow the company to obtain more funds from investors to give it time to reach the next stage.
And so things continue step by step, one innovation after another, until finally an innovative product is created that can generate billions of dollars in revenue.
我提到投资者资本是一个非常重要的因素，因为这项业务正在亏损大量资金，稍后我会与你们分享我预计该公司在未来几年会在现金流上亏损多少，以及会消耗掉多少流动性。
I mentioned investor capital as a very important element because this business is losing a lot of money, and I will share with you later how much I expect the company to lose in cash flow and how much liquidity it will burn through over the next few years.
因此，手头有可用的资金很重要，这样才能给自己时间度过那段困难时期。IonQ 拥有大量资本。该公司受益于 2025 年发生的量子计算热潮，当时股价上涨了数千个百分点。管理团队抓住了这个机会出售股票以筹集资本。
Therefore, it is important to have money available to give yourself time to get through that difficult period. IonQ has a lot of capital. The company benefited from the quantum computing frenzy that occurred in 2025 when stock prices rose by thousands of percentage points.
The management team seized the opportunity to sell shares to raise capital.
因此，它现在拥有非常强劲的资产负债表，现金及短期投资超过 20 亿美元。为了更直观地理解这个数字，如果公司将这些资金投资于非常安全的短期美国政府债券，收益率为 4% 到 5%，这将为公司带来每年约 1 亿美元的利息收入。
Therefore, it now has a very strong balance sheet with over $2 billion in cash and short- term investments. To put this figure in perspective, if the company were to invest these funds in very safe, short-term U.S. government bonds , which yield returns of 4 to 5%, this would give the company about $100 million a year in interest income.
那是一个极好的投资机会，换句话说，那是一笔巨额资金，公司可以用它来支付其在职员工的研发费用，从而有更多时间达到下一个里程碑。
That's a great investment opportunity, or in other words, that's a huge amount of money that the company can use to pay its outstanding employees for research and development, giving it more time to reach that next milestone.
她提到自己亏损了很多钱，但原因是她在研发上投入了大量资金。按百分比计算，过去十二个月研发支出与收入之比为 182%。这意味着公司每产生 100 美元收入，就会在研发上花费 182 美元。
She mentioned that she loses a lot of money, but the reason is that she spends a lot on research and development. As a percentage, the ratio of research and development spending to revenue over the past twelve months was 182%.
This means that for every $100 the company generates in revenue, it spends $182 on research and development.
因此，仅从这一项支出看，公司就已经处于净亏损状态。这还不包括公司运营所需的一系列其他费用。幸运的是，这一比例会随着公司收入的增长而下降。这正是投资者希望看到的：公司收入的增长速度持续快于其在研发上的投入。
Therefore, from this expense item alone, the company is already in a net loss. This does not include a range of other expenses that the company needs to operate. Fortunately, this percentage decreases as the company's revenues increase.
This is what investors would like to see: that the company's revenues continue to grow at a faster pace than its investment in research and development.
我最近提到，我把对 IonQ 股票的评级上调至“买入”。原因是，我看到围绕这一评估的大量炒作和热情已经消退。换句话说，我看到这个气球正在漏气。
I recently mentioned that I upgraded my rating on IonQ stock to "buy". The reason is that I saw a lot of the hype and enthusiasm fade away from this assessment. Or to put it another way, I saw some air escaping from the bubble of this balloon here .
这只股票曾一度以接近 60 倍的市销率（按未来销售额计算）交易。那是在市场狂热达到顶峰的时候。可以说，这种痴迷状态在 2024 年底、唐纳德·特朗普当选后不久达到顶峰。当时股市中许多风险最高的领域都充满兴奋情绪。
IonQ 就是那些股价真正出现爆发式上涨的公司之一。
At one point, this stock was trading at a price-to-futures-sales multiple approaching 60. This was at the height of the market frenzy. It could be argued that the state of obsession was greatest at the end of 2024, shortly after the election of Donald Trump.
There was a lot of excitement in many of the most risky areas of the stock market. IonQ was one of those companies that experienced a real explosion in its stock price.
当时，我警告投资者，这种情况看起来并不是一个好的买入机会。但如今，它的交易价格只是那一估值的一小部分，仅为那一水平的五分之一，市销率为 20 倍。
At that moment, I warned investors that the situation did not look like a good buying opportunity. But now, it is trading at a fraction of that valuation, only a fifth of that level with a price-to- sells multiple of 20 .
事实上，今年早些时候我上调评级时，这只股票以几十倍中段的市销率（按未来销售额计算）交易。因此，估值已经变得有吸引力得多，而当你审视一家拥有巨大增长潜力、但同时风险也非常高的公司时，这一点很重要。
In fact, earlier this year when I upgraded the rating, the stock was trading at a price-to- futures-sales multiple in the mid-dozens. Therefore, the valuation has become much more attractive, and this is important when you are looking at a company with enormous growth potential, but which also carries very high risks.
你希望在将潜在损失降到最低的同时最大化收益，并为你承担的风险给自己争取尽可能高的回报，因为你承担了很多风险。你要确保自己为这些风险获得足够的补偿。如果你已经为一桩生意支付了非常高的价格，那么其中很大一部分利润已经包含在股价里了，你承担的所有风险就得不到足够的回报。
You want to maximize gains while minimizing potential losses, and give yourself the maximum possible reward for the risk you take, because you take a lot of risks. You want to make sure you get adequate compensation for that risk.
If you are already paying a very high price for a business, much of that profit is already included in the share price, and you will not get enough reward for all the risks you take.
至于 IonQ，目前其股价中并没有包含多少这种期待和热情。所以，我看待这件事的另一种方式是计算公司的现金流折现估值，我计算出 AeonQ 股票的合理价值为 50 美元，而目前股价为 42.64 美元。
As for IonQ, it does not have much of that hope and enthusiasm embedded in its stock price at the moment . So, another way I like to look at this is by calculating the discounted cash flow valuation of the company, and I calculated a fair value of $50 for AeonQ shares , which is now at $42.64.
因此，我认为 IonQ 在未来 12 到 18 个月内至少有 17% 的上涨空间。但在这 17% 的涨幅之内，存在范围很广的各种可能结果。这只股票的价格可能在未来 12 个月内上涨 1000%。也可能在未来 12 个月内下跌 85%。
Therefore, I see gains of at least 17% over the next 12 to 18 months for IonQ. But within these 17 % gains there is a wide range of possible outcomes. The price of this stock could rise by 1000% over the next 12 months.
It may also decrease by 85% over the next 12 months .
这就是为什么我提到，这是市场上最危险的股票之一，因为不仅股价会波动，业绩也会波动，对吧？他们可能取得重大突破，从而推动股价飙升，也可能在一项关键测试中失败，从而导致股价崩盘。
That's why I mentioned that this is one of the most dangerous stocks in the market because of the fluctuations not only in the stock price, but also in the results, right ? They could achieve a major breakthrough that would send the stock price soaring , or they could fail a key test that could lead to a stock price collapse.
这是风险最高的投资之一，只应由风险承受能力非常高的投资者考虑。我能看到这家公司 15 年后的样子，它很可能会成为一家市值万亿美元的公司。目前，其市值不到 200 亿美元，具体为 170 亿美元。
It is one of the riskiest investments and should only be considered by investors with a very high risk tolerance. I can see this business 15 years from now, and it will likely become a trillion-dollar company.
Currently, the market capitalization is less than $20 billion, specifically at $17 billion .
所以，如果 AeonQ 把事情做对，如果它继续实现这些里程碑，如果它继续取得进展，如果它继续为投资者交出业绩，那么这里就有巨大的回报，它将继续获得资金，而只要它继续实现这些里程碑，投资者就会保持耐心。
So, there are huge payoffs here for AeonQ if they do things right, if they continue to achieve these milestones, if they continue to make progress , and if they continue to deliver results for investors, they will continue to receive capital, and investors will be patient if they continue to achieve those milestones.
我在 9 月 2 日将 IonQ 股票上调至“买入”评级，鉴于这些近期进展，我将重申这一买入评级，同时提醒投资者，这只股票只应由风险承受能力非常高的投资者考虑。
I upgraded IonQ stock to a " buy" rating on September 2nd, and in view of these recent developments , I will reiterate that buy rating , while cautioning investors that this should only be considered by investors with a very high risk tolerance .
这个频道对 $IONQ 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。