Samsara 增长强劲、盈利能力改善，但高估值与稀释风险抵消了这些优势。
逐段跳播
第二只股票，Samsara。他们的股票代码是IOT。这个对比很有意思。Palantir整理计算机内部的数据。Samsara做的是同样的事，但是在现实世界中。他们追踪卡车车队、仓库、重型机械，以及所有真正在移动和建造东西的设备。
所有这些信息都输入他们的系统，系统告诉公司如何更好地运营。更少的故障、更少的浪费里程、更安全的司机。
Stock number two, Samsara. Their ticker symbol is IOT. This comparison is fun. Palantir organizes the data inside computers. Samsara does the same thing, but in the real world.
They track fleets of trucks, warehouses, heavy machinery, and all the equipment that actually moves and builds things. All that information feeds into their system, and the system tells the company how to operate better.
Fewer breakdowns, fewer wasted miles, and safer drivers.
第一，一个巨大的、尚未被触及的市场。Samsara为车队等提供互联运营的软件和硬件，而它现在完全未被触及。第二，强劲的营收和利润增长。经常性。30%的同比营收增长，三年年化增长约为33%。
你猜怎么着？这种密集的订阅模式可以创造出可预测的累积财务增长的潜力。
First, a huge, untouched market. Samsara sells software and hardware for connected operations for fleets and all that stuff, and it's completely untouched right now. Second, strong revenue and income growth.
Recurring. 30% year-over-year revenue growth, and roughly 33% annualized growth over three years. And guess what? The intensive subscription model can create the potential for predictable cumulative financial growth.
现在我进入第四点。高客户价值和显著的可扩展性。一旦客户将Samsara整合进他们的车队运营、安全运营和合规工作流程，更换可能会造成干扰且代价高昂。这对这家公司来说是巨大的价值。
Now I'll move on to point four. High customer value and significant scalability. Once a customer integrates Samsara into their fleet operations, safety operations, and compliant workflows, change can be disruptive and costly. That's tremendous value for this company.
但当然，各位，有这么多优势，也有弱点。让我们看看。估值非常高。12.5倍市销率。76倍远期盈利。这太多了。这实在太高了。
But of course, folks, with all the strengths, there are weaknesses. Let's look at them. Very high valuation. 12.5x sales. 76x forward earnings. That's a lot. That's way too much.
盈利能力仍然相对不成熟。过去12个月的净利润约为9100万，自由现金流约为2.55亿。然而，投入资本回报率仅为0.9%，五年平均回报率为负。这是个问题。
Profitability is still relatively immature. Net income for the last 12 months is around 91 million, and free cash flow is around 255 million. Yet, the return on invested capital is only 0.9%, and the five-year average return is negative. That's a problem.
各位，第四点，股权稀释和股权激励风险。我再怎么强调这对公司、尤其是初创公司来说有多成问题都不为过。因为，各位，当你是一家初创公司并且想筹集资金时，你会用两种方式之一：要么发行股权，要么发行债务。
二者之一。或者当然你也可以用现金流，但归根结底，这些公司想增长得更快，而它们可能无法靠每年2亿美元的自由现金流来增长。
And folks, point four, equity dilution and equity-based compensation risks. I can't stress enough how problematic this is for companies, especially startups. Because, you guys, when you're a startup and you want to raise money, you do it in one of two ways: either by issuing equity or by issuing debt.
One of the two. Or you use the cash flow, of course, but ultimately, these companies want to grow faster, and they probably can't grow with $200 million a year of free cash flow.
那么，让我们看看Samsara的其他数据。首先，它是一家市值230亿美元的公司，企业价值大致相近。所以基本上，他们的债务、资产负债表和现金大致相当。
So, let's look at the other data for Samsara. First, it's a $23 billion company with a roughly similar enterprise value. So, basically, their debt, balance sheet, and cash are roughly equal.
我们看到他们的自由现金流是2.55亿美元，而净利润是9100万美元，这相当不错。我们看到了他们的净资产收益率。情况正在改善，尽管他们五年的表现是负的，但改善幅度很大，这正是我们喜欢的。
We saw that their free cash flow is $255 million versus $91 million, which is pretty cool. We saw their return on equity. Things are improving, and even though their 5-year performance is negative, it's improving a lot, which is what we like.
所以，如果你看他们的营业利润，那正是我们用来判断净资产收益率的依据。我关注的是营业利润。它今年才刚刚转正。之前一直是负的。这就是为什么当你看到负的净资产收益率时，它表明营业利润是负的。
So, if you look at their operating income, that's what we rely on to see return on equity. I'm focusing on operating income. It just turned positive this year. It was negative all the time.
That's why when you see a negative return on equity, it shows that the operating income is negative.
所以Tim问我：“这对业务意味着什么？”“好吧，各位，如果改善持续下去，营业利润继续改善，那么资本回报率将继续增长。这是个很好的迹象，尤其是当你看到如此高的毛利率时。”
So Tim asked me, "What does this mean for the business?" "Okay, guys, if the improvement continues, and the operating income continues to improve, then the return on capital will continue to grow.
That's a great sign, especially when you see such a high gross margin.
他们的毛利率是多少？没有GitLab那么高，但76%仍然非常好。比Microsoft还好。所以，这将使他们能够继续建立资本回报率，并继续建立现金流。
What's their gross margin? Not as high as GitLab's, but 76% is still very good. It's better than Microsoft. So, that will allow them to continue building that return on capital and continue building cash flow.
好，让我们看看我们的八大支柱。我想这也会很糟。是的，实际上比GitLab还糟。仅有的三个标志是现金流、净利润和营收。他们的债务确实更高，但那是因为他们的自由现金流太低，因为我们是以五年平均自由现金流为基础，而不是去年。一旦这一点稳定下来，这里很快就会有一个勾。
Okay, let's look at our eight pillars. I imagine this is going to be bad too. Yes, it's actually worse than GitLab. The only three signs are cash flow, net income, and revenue.
They do have higher debt, but that's because their free cash flow is so low because we based it on the five-year average free cash flow, not last year. Once this stabilizes, there will be a checkmark here very soon.
好，让我们调出分析师预期。明年1月是71美分，未来两年达到1.14美元，而我们的营收增长是……25%、20%、18.5%和25%。所以，这里有不错的增长，比GitLab更好。
Okay, let's pull the analyst estimates. We have 71 cents for next January to reach $1.14 over the next two years, and we have revenue growth of..." 25%, 20%, 18.5%, and 25%. So, there's decent growth here, better than GitLab's.
在我们使用股票分析工具时，这一点值得记住。那么，让我们直接进入股票分析工具。让我们为未来10年的营收增长做出假设。我将选择12.5%、20%和27.5%作为未来10年的营收增长率。
That's something to keep in mind as we use our stock analysis tool. So, let's jump right into our stock analysis tool. Let's make our assumptions for revenue growth over the next 10 years.
I'm going to choose 12.5%, 20%, and 27.5% as revenue growth rates for the next 10 years.
各位，这里的范围很宽。非常宽的范围。现在看利润率。好，记住，我们关注的是自由现金流。自由现金流更高。所以，我将选择20%、27.5%和35%。
Guys, there's a wide range here. A very wide range. Now, profit margin. Okay, remember, we're focusing on free cash flow. Free cash flow is higher. So, I'm going to choose 20%, 27.5%, and 35%.
现在，记住，我在这里做的是一个估算。我在他们的数据里任何地方都看不到这个，但我坐下来想，如果去年他们实现了13.8%，那么未来10年20%似乎也不算太高。也许我会说，你知道吗？
我把这个稍微调低一点。我就用17.5、25和32.5。
Now, remember, I'm making an estimate here. I don't see it in their data anywhere, but I sit and say, "Well, if they achieved 13.8% last year, then 20% for the next 10 years doesn't seem too high."
"Maybe I'll say, you know what? I'll lower this a bit. I'll go for 17.5, 25, and 32.5.
接下来，我会给这家公司设定什么样的市盈率？资本回报率正在改善。那将是10年后的事了，所以希望到那时资本回报率会高得多。我会设定16、20和24。因为它是一家高于平均水平的公司，从过去几年资本回报率的显著改善中我可以看出这一点。
Next, what P/E ratio would I put for this company? Well, the return on capital is improving. That's going to be 10 years from now, so hopefully by then the return on capital will be much higher.
I'll put 16, 20, and 24. Because it's an above-average company, as I can see from the significant improvement in the return on capital over the last few years.
当然，还有9.5%的要求回报率。我点击了分析按钮。好，各位，我得到低价17、高价133、平均价50，这不包括稀释。但是，如果我的平均假设成立，只要他们保持现有流通股不变，我就能看到大约13%的回报。
And of course, the required return of 9.5%. I hit the Analyze button. Okay, guys, I have Low price 17, high price 133, and average price 50, not including dilution. But, if my average assumptions hold true, I can see a return of around 13% if they keep their outstanding shares as they are.
各位，这门生意里的关键因素是稀释。如果他们能停止稀释股东的持股，那对公司将非常有利。
The key factor here in this business, folks, is dilution. If they can stop diluting shareholder stakes, it will be very beneficial for the company.
这个频道对 $IOT 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。