由于每兆瓦估值低且增长潜力高,IRN 是首选的 Neocloud 股票;转型风险被认为已计入价格。
逐段跳播
其次,这一类别包括 Neoclouds,即专门的 AI 基础设施提供商,如 Cororeweave、Nebius 和 Iron,它们是本视频的重点。其中一家是相当明显的赢家,当我们比较它们时,我会告诉你是哪一家。
And second, this category includes the Neoclouds, specialized AI infrastructure providers like Cororeweave, Nebius, and Iron, which are the focus of this video. One of them is the pretty clear winner, and I'll show you which one when we compare them.
至少在短期内,有三个重要理由将重点放在 Neoclouds 上,而不是其他类型的公司。首先,他们与各种 AI 买家都有交易,从像 Perplexity 和 Figure AI 这样的初创公司,一直到超大规模云服务商本身。
这意味着即使是他们的直接竞争对手也是他们的客户。
There are three big reasons to focus on Neoclouds above other kinds of companies, at least for the near- term. First, they have deals with every kind of AI buyer, from startups like Perplexity and Figure AI all the way to the hyperscalers themselves. That means that even their direct competitors are their customers.
其次,Nvidia 本身直接与这三家公司合作。在未来 5 年内,Nvidia 有义务从 Cororeweave 购买任何未使用的计算能力,并根据一份 34 亿美元的合同,使用 Iron 的基础设施来处理他们自己的内部工作负载。
此外,随着他们交付 GPU,Nvidia 可以购买高达 21 亿美元的 Iron 股票,而且他们已经向 Corewave 和 Nebus 各投资了 20 亿美元。
Second, Nvidia itself is directly partnered with all three of these companies. Over the next 5 years, Nvidia is on the hook to buy any unused compute capacity from Cororeweave and use Iron's infrastructure for their own internal workloads under a $3.4 billion contract. On top of that, Nvidia can buy up to $2.1 billion worth of iron stock as they deliver GPUs, and they've already invested $2 billion each into Corewave and Nebus.
好的,所以 Cororeweave、Nebius 和 Iron 值得首先介绍,因为它们预计在未来一年内将产能增加两倍。它们都直接与 Nvidia 合作,甚至它们的竞争对手也是它们的客户。
All right, so Cororeweave, Nebius, and Iron are worth covering first because they're expected to triple their capacity over the next year. They're all directly partnered with Nvidia, and even their competitors are their customers.
最后剩下的是 Iron,股票代码 IRN,前比特币矿工,正在转型为 AI 云。上个季度,IN 的 AI 云收入达到 7050 万美元,首次超过了他们的比特币挖矿收入。这个 AI 数字高于一个季度前的 3360 万美元,意味着在过去 90 天内增长了一倍多。
And that leaves us with Iron, ticker symbol IRN, the former Bitcoin miner, becoming an AI cloud. Last quarter, IN's AI cloud revenue hit $70.5 million and passed their revenues from Bitcoin mining for the first time. That AI number is up from $33.6 $6 million just one quarter ago, meaning it more than doubled in the last 90 days.
IN 与其他 Neoclouds 的区别在于,他们已经完成了困难的部分。他们花了数年时间购买土地和电力合同来挖比特币,这意味着他们已经为他们的 AI 数据中心准备了超过 5 吉瓦的管道。
What separates IN from the other Neoclouds is they already did the hard part. They spent years buying land and power contracts to mine Bitcoin, which means they already have a pipeline of more than 5 gawatt lined up for their AI data centers.
这已经为他们赢得了两份巨额合同,一份是与微软的为期 5 年、价值 97 亿美元的协议,另一份是与 Nvidia 的 34 亿美元协议。
And that's already won them two enormous contracts, a 5-year, $9.7 billion deal with Microsoft and a separate $3.4 4 billion deal with Nvidia.
Iron 目前约有 78 亿美元的债务和 59 亿美元的现金,因此净债务约为 19 亿美元。他们上个季度支付了 2500 万美元的利息,约占其收入的 18%。
Iron currently has about $7.8 billion of debt and 5.9 billion in cash, so about $1.9 billion of net debt. They paid $25 million in interest last quarter, or about 18% of their revenues.
他们还有 166 亿美元的积压订单,并且他们的目标是从今年的产能中实现 40 亿美元的年化运行率。其中约 10 亿美元已经上线,这意味着他们预计在未来 4 个月内将其翻两番。尽管他们的管理层确实指出,他们实际确认的收入可能会低于这个数字。
They also have a $16.6 billion backlog, and they're targeting a $4 billion annualized run rate from this year's capacity. About a billion of that is already online today, which means they expect to quadruple it in the next 4 months. Although their management did point out that the revenue they'll actually recognize could come in lower than that.
和往常一样,Iron 上个季度录得 6.84 亿美元的巨额亏损,其中大部分是注销更多比特币硬件的非现金减值,因为他们将站点转换为 AI。这是从挖矿转向训练和推理的持续成本。而且他们的总收入实际上从 1.45 亿美元缩减到 1.37 亿美元,原因相同。关闭比特币服务器比启动 AI 服务器更快。
And as usual, Iron posted a huge loss of $684 million last quarter, most of which was a non-cash impairment for writing off more of their Bitcoin hardware as they convert their sites to AI. That's the ongoing cost of pivoting from mining to training and inference. And their total revenue actually shrank from $145 million down to $137 million for the same reason. It's faster to take Bitcoin servers down than it is to stand AI servers up.
现在,让我们比较 Coreweave、Nebius 和 Iron Stock。这是一张总结我所涵盖内容的表格。请记住,这是我通过从每家公司最新的收益中提取数字自己构建的,我试图让每一行尽可能公平,但所有三家公司的财政日历不同,合同期限不同,而且它们从年初开始就处于非常不同的起点。
因此,将这张表格视为比较这些公司的一种好方法,但不要将其视为官方审计数字。
Now, let's compare Coreweave, Nebius, and Iron Stock. Here's a table summarizing everything I've covered. Keep in mind that I built it myself by pulling numbers from each company's latest earnings, and I tried to make every row as fair as I could, but all three companies have different fiscal calendars, different contract lengths, and they're scaling from very different starting points from the beginning of the year. So, take this table as a good way to compare these companies, but not as official audited numbers.
Iron 是最小、最便宜的公司,企业价值为 160 亿美元。但他们的收入运行率也最低,总计 5 亿美元,如果只包括 AI 而不包括比特币,则为 2.8 亿美元。这部分是为什么他们的 AI 收入增长最大,超过 10 倍,但基数要小得多。
Iron is the smallest and cheapest company at a $16 billion enterprise value. But they also have the lowest revenue run rate, 500 million total and 280 million if you only include AI and not Bitcoin. That's partially why they have the largest AI revenue growth of more than 10x but from a much smaller base.
但如果按总合同电力计算,Iron 每兆瓦成本约为 300 万美元。Nebus 为 1200 万美元,Cororeweave 为 2200 万美元。这使得 Iron 按合同电力计算比 Coreeave 便宜 7 倍。
But if you go by total contracted power, Iron costs around $3 million per megawatt. Nebus costs 12 million and Cororeweave costs 22 million. That makes Iron 7 times cheaper than Coreeave by contracted power.
但如果你寻找最大的上涨空间,IN 是最小的公司,每美元拥有最多的合同电力,相对于收入支付的利息最低,而且根据其规模和目标收入运行率,它是最便宜的。Iron 最大的风险是他们能否真正将合同电力转化为实际收入,或者他们从比特币挖矿的转型是否会让他们付出太多、太快。
我认为这种风险已经被定价了。所以,如果只能选择这些公司中的一家,我会选择 Iron。
But if you're looking for the most upside, IN is the smallest company with the most contracted power per dollar, the lowest interest payments relative to their revenues, and they're the cheapest based on their size and their target revenue run rate. The biggest risk for Iron is whether they can actually turn their contracted power into real revenues, or if their pivot from Bitcoin mining will cost them too much too soon. I think this risk is already priced in. So iron is the one I'd go with if I could only pick one of these companies.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $IRN 的历次判断
Ticker Symbol: YOU 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。