ISRG是一家拥有强大商业模式的高质量公司，但面临增长放缓和估值昂贵的阻力。
逐段跳播
Intuitive Surgical 是世界上最大的医疗设备制造商之一。它被认为是世界上质量最高的公司之一。它仍在快速增长，但股价正在下跌。
Intuitive Surgical is one of the biggest medical equipment makers in the world. It's considered one of the highest quality companies in the world. It's still growing fast, but the stock price is going down.
接下来是 Intuitive Surgical。这家公司我历来回避，因为它属于医疗领域，而医疗领域的大多数东西一样，这个行业很难理解，有很多法规，有很多繁文缛节，整体来看似乎是一个难以投资的行业。
但 Intuitive Surgical 在医疗领域拥有非常独特的商业模式，我实际上认为这是一个非常非常好的商业模式。
Now, next up we have Intuitive Surgical. This is a company that I've historically avoided because it's in the medical field, and like most things in the medical field, it's very difficult to understand the industry, there's lots of regulations, there's lots of red tape, and it seems overall like a difficult industry to invest in. But Intuitive Surgical has a very unique business model within the medical field, and I actually believe it's a very, very good business model.
但 Intuitive Surgical 正处于下跌之中，就像股票走势所示，这只股票在今年以来确实遭受重创，下跌了 36%。看一年期，下跌 23%，五年期完全持平。看十年期，我们看到更多的长期趋势。
这就是这只股票变得有趣的地方。Intuitive Surgical 乍一看似乎是一只高质量的股票，投资者有点过于兴奋，有点超前，但现在投资者，那些同样的投资者正在退缩。势头已经消退。
But Intuitive Surgical is in a decline, like the stocks are outlining here, this one has been really crushed over just the year-to-date period, it's down 36%. We go to the one year, down 23%, completely flat on the five years. We go to 10 years and we see more of a long-term trend. And this is where this one gets interesting. Intuitive Surgical at a glance seems like a high-quality stock where investors got a little too excited, a little ahead of themselves, but now investors, those same investors are pulling back. The momentum has faded.
这家公司与Lululemon有些不同。它的估值远没有Lululemon那么低。例如，它的远期市盈率为31倍。这仍然是溢价市盈率，但已不再疯狂。此前市盈率在50到60倍之间，现在已降至更合理的溢价市盈率。
此外，我们的自由现金流收益率仅为2.56%。所以，这不是Lululemon那种市盈率为10倍、自由现金流收益率为12%的情况。它要贵得多，但也不像Lululemon那样，这家公司的收入已不再增长。
Now, this one's a bit different than Lululemon. It doesn't trade anywhere near the low valuation of Lululemon. So, for example, it trades at a 31 forward PE ratio. That's still a premium PE ratio, but it's no longer crazy. The PE ratio was in the 50s and 60s before, now it's come down to a more reasonable premium PE ratio. We also have a free cash flow yield of only 2.56%. So, this isn't Lululemon where it's trading at a 10 PE and a 12% free cash flow yield. It's much more expensive, but it's also not Lululemon where this company is no longer growing revenue.
如果我们看分析师对下个季度的预期，预计增长12%，而接下来一年预计增长13%。我认为这就是问题的一部分。之前增长率为20%，现在预计增长约13%。所以，存在减速，这正是许多投资者担忧的地方。
他们认为这家公司已经达到更饱和、增长更慢的阶段，因此高企的估值需要回落。
If we look at the analyst expectations this next quarter, it's expected to grow at 12% and then over the next year, it's expected to grow at 13%. And I think that's part of the problem. Is it was just growing at 20%, now it's expected to grow at roughly 13%. So, there is deceleration and that's what's concerning a lot of investors. They believe that this company has gotten to a point of more saturation and slower growth, so that high-flying valuation needs to come down.
Intuitive Surgical是一家非常有趣的公司。我开始研究它，并计划进行深入分析，但现在我只简单介绍一下这家公司的业务。我把它看作一种打印机和墨水的模式。你知道你需要买一台打印机，它不太贵，你把它放在家里，但后来你发现墨水用完了，然后你必须买墨水，而墨水非常昂贵。
这家公司基本上就是这样。这里的打印机是他们卖给医院的手术设备。一旦卖给医院，这些手术设备需要大量工具和一次性耗材。这些都是一次性使用的。所以，公司首先将手术设备卖给诊所、医院或任何类型的医疗系统。
他们购买设备，这构成部分收入。因此，他们从销售中赚钱，但这并不是他们真正想赚大钱的地方。最大部分收入来自器械和配件。这些是每次手术都必须使用的新耗材，与手术设备或系统兼容。每次使用，他们都在消耗打印机的墨水，这就是器械和配件。
但还有第三部分。这就像打印机本身需要定期维护才能继续工作。这些系统很复杂，有时会出故障，而他们负责维护系统。所以，还有服务收入。基本上，一切都依赖于最初安装系统。一旦系统安装完毕，就有器械和配件，然后还有服务。
Now, Intuitive Surgical is a very interesting company. It's one that I started to study and I plan on doing a deep dive into, but for now I'll just give you a basic rundown of what this company does. I view it as a printer and the ink type of company. You know you need to buy a printer. It's not too expensive, you just get the printer in your home, but then you realize it runs out of ink. And then you have to buy ink and the ink is very expensive. And that's basically what this company does. The printer in this case are surgical devices that they sell to hospitals. Once they sell them to hospitals, the surgical devices require a lot of tooling and a lot of disposable things. They're one-use things. So, the company starts by selling a surgical device to either a clinic, a hospital, or any type of medical system. They buy that and that's some of the revenue. So, they make money on the sale, but that's really not where they like to make most of their money. The biggest portion of it comes from instruments and accessories. These are things that they have to use new that are compatible with the surgical equipment or with the system every single time they do a surgery. So, every time they're using it, they're running through that ink from the printer. That's the instruments, that's the accessories. But, then there's a third thing. This is as if the printer itself has to be serviced every once in a while to continue working. These systems are complex, sometimes they break down, and they're the ones that service the systems. So, you also have service revenue as well. So, basically, everything relies initially on getting systems installed. Once you have the system installed, then you have the instruments and accessories, then you have the services.
我们还有另一个KPI来追踪他们持续的系统安装情况。这不是总安装系统数，而是每年新安装的数量。在过去的12个月中，他们安装了2000个新系统。所有这些系统每次手术都需要持续的部件和持续的维护。
所以，总的来说，这是一家业务模式非常好的公司，但其股价持续下跌。
We have another KPI that tracks their ongoing system installations. Now, this is not the total systems installed, this is how many new that they're installing every single year. On a trailing 12-month basis, they've installed 2,000 new systems. All of those require constant parts every surgery and constant maintenance. So, this is overall a very good business model of a company that continues to have its stock decline.
这个频道对 $ISRG 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。