$IWM

受利率压力影响,IWM 处于下行趋势;技术指标显示目前尚无买入机会。

看跌他说的是几周内
《askSlim Market Week 09/18/26 - Analysis of Financial Markets》
Steve Miller发布 2026-09-18 · 5 段内容
32:08/ 打开原视频

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5 段内容

罗素指数因利率形势而向下运行。如果10年期美国国债收益率达到5%,罗素指数中超过三分之一拥有浮动利率债务的公司的盈利将受到损害,而且相当一部分罗素股票已经在亏损。

The Russell index is moving downwards due to the interest rate situation. If 10-year Treasury yields reach 5%, the earnings of more than a third of Russell Index companies with variable-interest debt will be hurt, and a significant portion of Russell stocks are already losing money.

所以这对小市值公司来说是一个糟糕的局面,这就是你现在看到这种情况的原因。那是在期权趋势指标说“罗素指数不再持有任何多头头寸”“是时候把你的期权头寸转向卖方了”的那一刻。

So this is a bad situation for small-capital companies, and this is why you see what is happening now. That was at the moment when the Options Trend Indicator said: "No more long positions in the Russell Index."

"It's time to tip your options positions towards the sell side."

当我看罗素指数及其在这里的时间节点时,在这张周线图上有很大的可能还会出现另一个周期,即它尝试反弹,然后再次下跌。

When I look at the Russell index and its timings here, there is a good chance on this weekly chart that there is another cycle in which it attempts to bounce back and then falls again.

在第9天和第15天,IWM和DIA都已略微转为看跌。所以,这就是我向你展示的那张周线图上的反映。当我看这里的短期情况时,你可以看到,尽管有所下跌,我们昨天看到小幅回升至中性水平。

然而,IWM和Diamonds仍处于下行趋势中。

On days 9 and 15, both the IWM and DIA have gone slightly bearish. So, this is that reflection on the weekly chart that I showed you. When I look at the short term here, you can see that despite its decline, we saw a slight rise to the neutral level yesterday.

However, both IWM and Diamonds are still in a downward trend.

正如我向你展示的,我提出的罗素RUT指标——也就是IWM ETF——有着那种特别看跌的前景。他向你解释说,由于利率的原因,那里目前还没有即将到来的买入。

As I showed you, we have that particularly bearish outlook on the Russell RUT indicator that I presented, which is the IWM ETF. He explained to you that there are no upcoming purchases there yet, due to interest rates.

观察点

10年期美国国债收益率触及5%
若收益率触及5%,罗素指数中超过三分之一的公司盈利将受到冲击
未知美国国债收益率数据
印证小盘股疲软的主要驱动因素,从而支持看空论点

这个频道对 $IWM 的历次判断

Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-19看跌
其原因取决于我在观察FEZ、XRT和罗素指标时将要向你展示的图表。
原话 02:26 ›
2026-09-18看跌本条
罗素指数因利率形势而向下运行。
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