罗素指数因利率因素表现疲弱并呈下行趋势,更可能反弹后再度下跌,而非创出新高。
逐段跳播
其原因取决于我在观察FEZ、XRT和罗素指标时将要向你展示的图表。
The reason for this depends on the charts that I will show you while looking at FEZ, XRT and the Russell indicator.
我们来看一下这里的罗素指数,它讲述的是一个完全不同的故事。罗素指数要弱得多。有些人问我,为什么罗素指数这么弱,为什么它在这段时间里下跌得如此剧烈。
Let's look at Russell's index here; that tells a completely different story. The Russell index is much weaker. Hmm, some people are asking me why the Russell index is so weak, and why it is declining so sharply during this period.
它目前的交易价约为2830,此前曾触及230点的高位。这意味着目前大约下跌了8%,甚至更多。这里你可以看到反转是如何转向下行的,这在周线图上是一个警告。
It is trading at approximately 2830, after hitting a high of 230 points. This means a decrease of about 8% currently, or even more. Here you can see how the reversals turned downwards, which was a warning on the weekly chart.
这里该指标下跌,并在它转为正值的那个点位给了你一个虚假信号(反复震荡)。我会把你在这里看到的顶部区域的这种走势称为剧烈震荡(反复震荡)。
Here the indicator dropped and gave you a false signal (whipsaw) at that point where it turned positive. I would call this a sharp oscillation (whipsaw) in the peak area that you see here.
所以你可以看到那里的大方向。它表明这个底部将在9月中旬到达。不过,当我查看这里的日线图时,我不确定它是否已经触底。
So you can see the big course right there. It indicates that this bottom will be reached in mid-September. However, when I look at the daily chart here, I'm not sure it has bottomed out yet.
它下跌的幅度非常大,所以它需要大量能量才能到达这里的阻力区,这也在情理之中,而要回到2950这一中间位置,这种能量不太可能具备,除非利率开始非常急剧地下降。
The distance it has fallen is very large, so it makes sense that it will require a lot of energy to get to the resistance zone here, energy that is unlikely to be available to get back to the middle of the road at 2950, unless interest rates start to fall very sharply.
罗素指数正因利率形势而向下运行。如果10年期国债收益率达到5%,罗素指数中超过三分之一拥有浮动利率债务的公司实际上将利润受损。
The Russell index is moving downwards due to the interest rate situation. If 10-year bond yields reach 5%, more than a third of Russell's companies with variable-rate debt will actually suffer profits.
罗素指数中很大一部分股票无论如何都在亏损。所以,这对小市值公司来说是一个糟糕的局面,而这就是你现在所看到的情况的原因。
A large portion of Russell's shares are losing money anyway. So, this is a bad situation for small-capital companies, and this is the reason for what you are seeing now.
此外,你可以在这里看到Slim Ribbon PPO指标的值,你在这里得到了负面信号。
Also, you can see the value of the Slim Ribbon PPO indicator here, where you got the negative signal.
那正是他在这里要告诉你关于着陆重启的内容。你可以在这里看到期权偏向指标。正是在这里,期权偏向指标显示:“不再持有罗素指数的多头头寸。”是时候把期权头寸转向卖方了。
That was exactly what he was here to tell you about the resumption of the landing. You can see the Option Bias Indicator here. It was exactly here that the Options Bias indicator said: "No more long positions in Russell."
It's time to shift your options positions towards the sell side.
所以,当我看罗素指数并观察这里的时点时,在这张周线图上有很大可能还会出现另一个周期,即该指数尝试反弹,然后再次下跌。
So, when I look at Russell and look at the timing here, there is a good chance on this weekly chart that there is another cycle where the index tries to bounce back and then falls again.
鉴于指标之间出现的这种背离,这目前并不强烈支持股市将大幅反弹或创出新高的假设。
This does not strongly support the hypothesis of a major rebound or reaching new highs for the stock market at the moment, given this divergence in the indicators.
然后在9日和15日,IWM和DIA的评级略微向下滑落。不过,IWM和Diamonds指数仍处于下行趋势之中。
Then on the ninth and fifteenth, the IWM and DIA ratings dropped slightly downward. However, the IWM and Diamonds indices are still in a downward trend.
这个频道对 $IWM 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。