$JBHT

柴油成本高企是全行业性的不利因素,导致JBHT业绩指引疲弱、前景偏空。

看跌他说的是几周内
《Options Corner: JBHT Upgraded Despite Earnings Headwinds》
Schwab Network发布 2026-09-17 · 12 段内容
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12 段内容
0:083:49

是的,对 JB Hunt 来说这无疑是艰难的一天,但正如你们从这条紫色线看到的,过去一年它仍然上涨了 76%。

Yes, certainly a rough day for JB Hunt, but still up 76% during the past year as you can see from our purple line here,

不过,他们给出这种糟糕指引的原因,似乎在于当前柴油高成本带来的不利因素。所以,这是会影响整个行业的事情。你可以看到,这一点在许多其他个股上也很明显:ArcBest、Knight-Swift、Old Dominion、CH Robinson。

However, the reason that they issued this kind of poor guidance seems to be it was a headwind from the high cost of diesel right now. So, this is something that would affect the industry as a whole.

You can see that this was apparent in many other names ArcBest Knight-Swift Old Dominion CH Robinson.

那么,现在我们看到的是,我们的高点略低于 300。从那里开始,我们形成了一个向下倾斜的通道形态。我们有两个随后的高点。我们复制了趋势线,并将其横跨低点,从而得出我们的通道形态。

昨天的走势使我们显著跌破了该水平。当天的高点看起来我们或许能重新进入该通道区域,但未能如愿。我们这条红线,即旧高点和随后的低点,位于 254。这现在构成一个阻力区域,也是向上的缺口。

271 将是向上另一个值得关注的区域。与此同时,向下方面,我们在这里看到的旧高点、随后的低点,大约就是我们昨天触底的位置,即我们的第一条绿线 235。再往下,有一个小缺口和其他低点,接近 230,还有一个缺口之后的高点,以及向上突破之后接近 221 的一个低点。

So, now what we see here was that we had our highs just shy of 300. From there, we have formed a downward sloping channel type shape here. We had our two subsequent high points.

We duplicated our trend line and put it across the lows to give us our channel type shape. Yesterday's move brought us significantly below that level. Our high of the day looked like perhaps we could reenter that channel area, but it was not to be.

Our red line here, old highs and subsequent lows comes in at 254. That now presents a resistance area, the gap to the upside as well. 271 would be another area of interest to the upside.

Meanwhile, to the downside, the old highs we saw here, the subsequent lows are about where we bottomed out yesterday at our first green line 235. Beyond that, a small gap and other lows here near 230 and another high point after a gap and a low point there near 221 after a breakout to the upside.

所以,就这只股票而言,未来确实有很多事情需要考虑。

So, some definitely a lot of things to consider going forward in this name.

我们的移动平均线显示,我们昨天也触及了一个相当重要的点位。这条橙色线是我们的 250 日指数移动平均线,代表一个交易年度。所以,这是我们时间最长、因而也最重要的移动平均线,可能在 233.40 附近提供支撑。这是截至昨天收盘时的位置。

Our moving averages show that Uh, we also hit a pretty uh, important point yesterday. Our 250-day exponential moving average in orange here representing one trading year. So, this is our longest term and thus most significant moving average that could be supportive near 233.40. That's where it was as of yesterday's close.

RSI 跌破了 50 中位线,但关键在于它尚未跌破 30 这一代表超卖区域的阈值。如果它在这里显著突破该水平,那将意味着进一步的看跌。

RSI fell below the 50 midline, but crucially it did not yet go below the uh, 30 threshold which would represent the oversold area. That would be further uh, bearishness if it were to make a significant push beyond that level here.

我们的成交量分布研究显示,价格正在接近的下一个节点在这里,介于 221 和 230 之间,大致代表这个旧的区间震荡高点区域。所以,如果我们推入该区域,那可能提供潜在支撑。

Our volume uh, profile study shows that the next node that we have that price is approaching is here between 221 and 230 kind of representing this old range-bound high area here.

So, if we were to push into that area, that could be supportive potentially.

还要注意我们昨天这波走势中出现的非常巨大的成交量。所以,大幅波动伴随高成交量,往往是一个信号,表明这可能是一次重要的价格发展。

Notice as well the very heavy volume that we saw during yesterday's move here. So, high volume on a big move is often a sign that it's it can be a a an important price development.

对。那么,来想想期权市场预期的潜在波动。9 月 18 日,也就是周五到期,就在这儿,仅仅几天内为正负 2.9%。但我们要看的是 10 月 16 日到期,我们的黄色方框显示为正负约 9.8%。

Right. So, thinking about the options market expected potential moves here. September 18th, Friday's expiration right here plus or minus 2.9% in only a couple days here. But, we're going to look out to October 16th expiration here. Our yellow box plus or minus about 9.8%.

所以,消息面看起来不太好。柴油燃料的情况以及其他这些因素,看起来不会在明天就得到解决。所以,或许可以做一笔更偏看跌的交易,来捕捉我们 10 月 15 日的下一次财报事件。

So, the news does not seem great. The uh, situation with diesel fuel and uh, these other factors doesn't seem like it would is going to be resolved tomorrow. So, perhaps a more bearish trade that would capture our next earnings event on the the 15th of October.

所以,买入 10 月 16 日到期、230/220 的看跌期权垂直价差,支出 340。看跌观点,距到期 29 天,最大亏损 340,即我们支付的支出,最大盈利为 660。所以,风险回报比差不多是一比二。

盈亏平衡点 226.60,约合下行 4.8%,预期波动约 9.8%。所以,它能相当好地捕捉到这一点。

So, plus one October 16th 230 220 put vertical at a 340 debit. Bearish outlook, 29 days to expiration, max loss 340 is our debit paid, max profit is 660. So, almost one to two in terms of risk to reward here.

Break even 226.60, about 4.8% to the downside, expected move about 9.8%. So, it would capture that pretty well.

我们那个 220 的保护性行权价大约在下行 8% 左右。所以,需要出现比预期更大的波动,我们才会在触及该行权价后封顶、不再获得更多利润。

Um, our uh, 220 uh, protective strike there is about uh, 8% or so to the downside. So, it would take a bigger than expected move for us to kind of cap out and not gain any more profits after hitting our strike there.

观察点

RSI 水平相对于超卖阈值的位置
跌破 30
近期技术图表
若跌破进入超卖区域,将进一步削弱该股

这个频道对 $JBHT 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-17看跌本条
是的,对 JB Hunt 来说这无疑是艰难的一天,但正如你们从这条紫色线看到的,过去一年它仍然上涨了 76%。
2026-09-16看跌
是的,JB Hunt 今早股价承压,下跌超过 11%,这是在一份罕见的预警之后出现的。
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