$JOBY

Joby 是其所在领域的领导者,有望在 2-6 个月内获得 FAA 批准,这将是一个重大里程碑。

看涨他说的是几个月内
《Are Flying Cars Finally Real? The Investment Case for Joby Aviation》
The Acquirers Podcast发布 2026-09-20 · 12 段内容
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12 段内容
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Joby 花了大约 15 年时间,致力于将一款飞行器推向市场。这款产品是电动直升机与普通飞机的混合体。它像直升机一样起飞,然后像飞机一样飞行。由于是电动的,它无法进行长距离飞行,但它很安静,这让它在城市环境中完全不同。

Joby has been working for about 15 years to bring a flying vehicle to market. The product is a hybrid between an electric helicopter and a regular airplane. It takes off like a helicopter, then flies like an airplane.

It doesn't travel long distances because it's electric, but it's quiet, which makes it completely different for urban environments.

“Gobi”的预期市场是城市内的短途出行。这正是 Joby 为其电动飞行器所看到的那类市场。

The expected market for " Gobi" is short trips within cities. This is the type of market that Joby sees for its electric flying vehicle.

Joby 是这个领域里最先进的公司。我对此非常有信心。他们已经达到了一个阶段,就在我们说话的当下,他们正在制造飞机或飞行器。也许每月一架。

Joby is the most advanced company in this field. I am very confident of that. They have reached a stage where they are manufacturing aircraft or flying vehicles as we speak. Maybe one per month.

他们走完了认证流程,直到进入下一步——由 FAA 的飞行员来测试它,并开始进行 Joby 此前已在这架飞行器上完成过的那些测试。

They went through the certification process until they reached the point where the next step was for FAA pilots to test it and begin conducting the tests that Joby had performed on the aircraft.

我认为,美国联邦航空管理局开始运营这些东西是合理的,如果不是两个月内,那也许就是四个月或六个月后。我不知道那之后还需要多长时间,但批准可能需要一个、两个或四个季度。那无疑将是一项巨大的成就。

这是第一种被采用的新型飞行器。如果这真的发生,那将极其重要。

I think it makes sense for the Federal Aviation Administration to start operating those things, if not in two months, then maybe in four or six months. I don't know how long it will take after that, but it could take one, two, or four quarters of the year for it to be approved.

That would certainly be a huge achievement. It is the first new type of flying machine to be adopted. If that happens , it will be extremely important.

过去两个月里,该股已经崩盘,原因有两点。第一,是对 Joby Airlines 的担忧。他们会不会需要更多资本?

The stock has collapsed over the past two months due to two things. First, concerns about Joby Airlines. Will they need more capital?

该股此前一路飞涨。投资者对临近的启动日期感到兴奋。他们在迪拜航展上让飞行器飞了起来。当别人什么都没有的时候,他们已经在各处飞行,而且他们在迪拜和阿联酋有协议,将于今年在那里开始服务。

The stock had been on a meteoric rise. Investors were excited about the approaching launch date. They flew their aircraft at the Dubai Airshow. They are flying here and there while others have nothing, and they have deals in Dubai and the Emirates to start service there this year .

当它像钟表一样规律运营,每 5 或 10 分钟就从城市各处多个地点起飞,因为人们并不介意安静的起飞,它就能带来……大量的用户。但这不会改变道路上的汽车数量。要知道,使用它的人数不会改变交通格局。

它不像一列载着 5000 人前往机场的火车。但这个市场足够大,足以让 Joby 在投产的头五年内卖掉它能制造的所有飞行器。

When it operates regularly like a clock and launches every 5 or 10 minutes from multiple locations around the city because people don't mind a quiet takeoff, it can become... large numbers of users for it.

But it won't change the number of cars on the roads. Learn, the number of people who will use it will not change traffic patterns . It's not like taking a train carrying 5,000 people to the airport.

But the market is large enough to enable Joby to sell all the helicopters it can manufacture within the first five years of production.

他们的计划不是把它卖掉。他们的计划是运营一项空中出租车服务。这带来了完全不同的收入率,因为当你必须一年卖出 100 架 500 万美元的飞机才能赚到 5 亿美元时,要达到 50 亿美元,比生产一架能在很长时期内每年产生 200 万美元收入的飞行器要难得多。

Their plan is not to sell it. Their plan is to operate an air taxi service. This allows for a completely different revenue rate , because when you have to sell a $5 million plane 100 times a year to make $500 million, it is much harder to reach $5 billion than producing one that generates $2 million in annual revenue for a long period.

另一个需要考虑的重要事情是,这些东西今天就能用。它今天就能用,甚至不是靠当前的电池技术,而是靠两三年前在这些电池中设计出来的技术。因为那正是他们提供给美国联邦航空管理局(FAA)用于为这架飞行器供电的电池。

今天的电池会更高效,而三年后的电池会高效得多。所以,随着一年年过去,这些飞行器的航程会增加,或者生产线上下一架飞行器的航程会更大,而如果你升级电池,它们的航程就会增加。

Another important thing to consider is that these things work today. It works today, not even with current battery technology, but with technology that was designed in these batteries two or three years ago.

Because that's the battery they offered to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for use in powering this vehicle. Today's batteries will be more efficient, and batteries three years from now will be much more efficient.

So, as each year goes by, the range of these vehicles increases, or the next vehicle on the production line will have a greater range, and if you upgrade the batteries, their range will increase .

所以这是一个非常庞大且潜力巨大的市场,而且,看,这并不意味着所有人都会使用这些飞行器,但如果全球 50 个城市里各有 50 架可用,你就能快速到达目的地。

So it's a very large and potential market, and look, that doesn't mean everyone will be using these vehicles, but if 50 of them are available in 50 cities around the world, you'll get to your destination quickly.

如你所知,这件事已经酝酿了很久。它还没有真正实现,但他们已经用这架飞行器进行了某种试飞,持续了两年。我的意思是,一年半前就有一架在曼哈顿下城飞行。他们现在到处都在飞它。我认为他们现在每月飞行数千小时。

As you know, this has been in the works for a long time. It hasn't happened exactly yet , but they have been conducting some kind of test flights with this vehicle for two years.

I mean, there was one flying in Lower Manhattan a year and a half ago. They are flying it everywhere right now . I think they're flying thousands of hours a month now.

观察点

Joby 飞机获得 FAA 批准
获得批准
未来 2-6 个月监管决定
支持看涨逻辑;延迟则会削弱该逻辑

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2026-09-20看涨本条
Joby 花了大约 15 年时间,致力于将一款飞行器推向市场。这款产品是电动直升机与普通飞机的混合体。它像直升机一样起飞,然后像飞机一样飞行。由于是电动的,它无法进行长距离飞行,但它很安静,这让它在城市环境中完全不同。
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