受高利率和下行技术趋势影响，KB Home 在财报发布前的前景偏空。
逐段跳播
是的，KB Home 以建造面向首次购房者的住宅而闻名，这类住宅是按订单建造的。但我们可以看到，KPH 在这里的表现明显很差，以红色标出，下跌 23.3%，而 XHP 的 Homebuilding Index Fund 下跌 12.8%，标普则下跌 16%。
Yes, KB Home is known for building homes for first-time buyers, a type of home that is built to order. But we can see KPH’s remarkably poor performance here in red, down 23.3% against XHP’s Homebuilding Index Fund, which is down 12.8% against S&P’s 16%.
这只股票被纳入 XLY Consumer Discretionary Fund，这并不是它最好的基准，尽管这是一个非常宽泛的类别。
This stock is included in the XLY Consumer Discretionary Fund, which is not its best benchmark, although it is a very broad category.
更高的利率使按揭贷款吸引力下降，因此人们可能想留在他们以相对较低的按揭利率购得的房子里。因此，从整体价格走势来看，我们看到一条从那些较高水平延伸下来的下行趋势线，我们可以在这里把它连接起来。
Higher interest rates make mortgages less attractive, and therefore people may want to stay in the homes they acquired with relatively low mortgage interest rates. Therefore, looking at the overall price trajectory, we see a downward trend line from those higher levels that we can connect here.
大约 67 是我们此前达到峰值的位置。我们的最低点是 44。我们也可以在这里画出另一条向上倾斜的路径。但实际上，我们现在正走向财报公布。许多事情可能会发生变化。
Around 67 is the level at which we previously reached the peak. Our lowest point is 44. We can also draw another upward-leaning path here. But in reality, we are now heading towards announcing earnings. Many things may change.
因此，这里需要关注的水平位大约在 47 和 44，正如我提到的，它们代表那些旧的低点。与此同时，在上行方向，我们关注 50 和 54 这两个水平位，因为这是我们在价格崩盘前看到的反复出现的水平位。
Therefore, the horizontal levels to watch here are around 47 and 44 as I mentioned, which represent those old lows. Meanwhile, on the upside, we are watching the 50 and 54 levels because of this recurring level that we saw before the price collapse.
随着我们走向财报公布，我们届时可以评估我们的移动平均线。它们的排列方式更倾向于在这里落位。我们这里的较快均线位于较慢均线下方。
As we move towards the earnings announcement, we can then evaluate our moving averages. They are lined up in a way that is more inclined to land here. We have the faster averages below the slower averages here.
我们的 5 日指数移动平均线，以深蓝色显示，为 48.23，代表一个交易周。因此，形势更偏向于下行。我们还可以看到相对强弱指数在这里呈上行趋势，尽管它在财报公布前放缓是常见的。我们仍位于 50 这一中位线下方。
Our 5-day exponential moving average, shown in dark blue, 48.23, represents one trading week. Therefore, things are pointing more towards the downside. We can also see the Relative Strength Index trending upwards here, although it is common for it to slow down before earnings announcements. We are still below the midline at the 50 level.
成交量集中在 48-50 这一水平位附近以及 51-53 这一水平位附近。还要注意，随着我们接近这次财报公布事件，成交量非常巨大。出现这种情况并不寻常。
Trading volumes are concentrated here and there around the 48-50 level, and the 51-53 level. Also note the very heavy trading volume as we approach this earnings announcement event. It is unusual to see that.
鉴于当前的利率环境以及我们在这里看到的整体下行格局，也许更偏空的交易会是更好的做法。
Well, given the interest rate environment and the overall pattern of downward movement we are seeing here, perhaps a more bearish trade would be the better approach.
看这里的 11 月，在我们的绿色方框内，我们可以看到大约 14.2% 的涨跌幅。所以，“看跌蝶式”策略就在这里。买入一份 11 月 20 日的“Boat Butterfly”，价格为 50、45、40，成本为 130。
Looking at November here, in our green box, we can see an increase or decrease of approximately 14.2%. So, the "put butterfly" strategy is here. Buy one "Boat Butterfly" for November 20 at prices of 50, 45, 40 for a cost of 130.
看跌观点，距离到期还有 59 天。最大亏损为 130，即我们支付的成本。如果合约正好在我们的空头行权价结束，最大利润为 370。我们的盈亏平衡点大约在下行方向 13.7%。这就是我们盈利的交易将再次开始转为亏损的位置。
我们的预期波动为 14.2%。因此，如果我们因盈利而看到强劲走势，你不必一直持有它。你可以直接平仓。
Bearish outlook, with 59 days left until expiry here. The maximum loss is 130, which is the cost we paid. Maximum profit 370 if the contract ends exactly at our short strike price.
Our break-even point is approximately 13.7% on the downside. This is where our winning deal will start to turn into a losing one again. Our expected movement is 14.2%. Therefore, you don't have to hold onto it all the time if we see a strong move due to profits. You can simply close the deal.
这个频道对 $KBH 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。