$KKR

KKR是AI驱动整合和亚洲/欧洲市场渗透不足的持久性大型另类资产受益者;以有吸引力的价格重新发起覆盖。

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Yet Another Value Podcast发布 2026-09-01 · 4 段内容
45:42/ 打开原视频

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然后还有 KKR,我今年重新建仓了,它显然拥有一个由它拥有和长期放贷的企业组成的投资组合,市场一直对软件公司、私募股权公司和私人信贷公司的投资组合中的 AI 敞口感到紧张。我重新建仓的观点是,我认为现有的投资组合就是这样,人们明白资产管理公司会因他们在 AI 出现之前购买的一些东西而受到伤害。

我认为最有能力生存下来的公司是那些拥有最长业绩记录和最多蓝筹股名称的公司,它们可能会因为一两个糟糕的年份而被原谅,因为它们之前有 10 个年份表现非常好,而且它们作为优秀投资者有着如此多的经营历史,我认为它们将继续保持持久。

而规模较小的中端市场公司,由于年份较少,可能因糟糕的投资而被给予较少的回旋余地。所以我认为你会看到中端市场公司的整合消失。这将继续越来越艰难地向上推进,要么向下走向没有受到 AI 影响的新初创公司,要么走向现有的蓝筹股,也就是大型另类资产管理公司。

所以我认为大型另类资产管理公司将成为在私募股权和另类投资中夺取份额的受益者,同时在一个因为 AI 而快速发展的商业和经济世界中,它们也会从被动投资中夺取份额。你可以说拥有被动投资变得更难了,对吧?

你真的想拥有所有那些 AI 输家的企业吗?难道你不想让主动管理者为你挑选那些可能因为投资 AI 而表现良好的企业,成为 AI 赢家吗?所以,还有很多其他原因让我觉得这很有趣,但我认为大型另类资产管理公司长期来看将成为 AI 赢家。

所以这就是今天投资组合中体现出来的三种方式,我能想到的。

Um and then KKR which I reinitiated this year which has obviously a portfolio of businesses that it owns and that it has lent to over time and that and and the markets have been nervous about the AI exposure of the software companies and private equity firms and private credit firms portfolios and I reinitiated the position with the view that I think the existing portfolios are what they are right people understand that asset managers will be hurt by some stuff that they bought before AI was a thing. And I think the firms that are best positioned to survive that are the ones with the longest track records and the most blue chip names that are likely going to be given a pass for a bad vintage or two because they have 10 vintages before that that did very well and they have so much operating history as being good investors that I think they will continue to be durable. while smaller mid-market firms that have fewer vintages might be given less less rope to kind of work with for making bad investments. And so I think you you're going to see a consolidation of mid-market firms going away. it's going to continue to push more and more uphill towards the the well either downhill to new startups that didn't get hurt by the AI stuff or by the you know the incumbents uh the blue chip kind of the mega alts and so I think mega alts are going to be beneficiaries of taking share within private equity and alternatives but also taking share from passive in a world where business and economy is rapidly evolving because of AI you could make the case owning passive gets gets harder right? Do you really want to own all the businesses that are AI losers? Don't you want active managers to select for you the businesses that could really do well based on making investments in AI and be AI winners? So I and and there's there's lots of other reasons I think it's interesting also, but I think the mega alts are going to be AI winners long term. And so that's that's three ways it manifests in the portfolio today that I could think of offhand.

如果我们与 KKR 竞争,比如他们拥有 AI 已经抓取的数十年的数据,而我们没有,我想他们在这方面有巨大的优势,人才方面也有巨大优势,诸如此类。

if we're competing in KKR bid something like they've got decades of data that AI has scraped and we do not like I guess they have huge advantages there, huge advantages talent, all that sort of stuff.

高净值零售渠道刚刚开始起飞,这对他们来说可能是一个巨大的机会。KKR 拥有全球最大的亚洲另类投资业务,但今天亚洲机构对另类投资的配置非常低,相对于美国,很多机构配置了 25%、30%、40%、50% 的另类和私募股权,而在亚洲,你可能看到的是机构资本配置到另类投资的比例只有中到高个位数百分比,所以那里有巨大的增长空间。

KKR 作为最大的亚洲另类资产管理公司将从中受益。欧洲同样渗透不足,虽然没有亚洲那么严重,但低于美国,他们在欧洲有很大的业务。在美国,信贷、基础设施和房地产领域,KKR 还有很大的增长空间,以赶上 Blackstone 和 Brookfield 等公司,在这些策略上,甚至他们最传统、最成熟的美国私募股权业务仍在以不错的步伐增长。所以有很多不同的途径带来增长。

the high net worth retail channel is just starting to take off that could be a massive opportunity for them KKR has the largest Asia alternatives business globally but a inst institutions have a very low allocation to alternatives in Asia today relative to like the US where lots of institutions are 25 30 40 50% allocated to alts and privates in Asia you're looking at probably a mid to high singledigit percentage of institutional capitals allocated to alts so there's massive growth ahead there KR will benefit from that as the largest Asian alternative asset manager Europe is similarly underpenetrated not as much as Asia but below the US they have a big European business um I in there's a lot of growth ahead in the US in credit infrastructure and real estate for KKR specifically to catch up to the Blackstones and Brookfields of the world and those in those uh strategies and then even their most legacy most mature US private equity business is still growing at a nice clip. So lots of growth ahead from lots of different avenues.

我认为私人信贷的恐慌给了我一个机会,以有吸引力的价格重新建仓一个我几年前卖出的业务。

I think the private credit scare gave me an opportunity to reinitiate a position in in a business that I sold a couple years ago at an attractive price.

以上 4 段为这条视频中谈及 $KKR 的全部内容。

这个频道对 $KKR 的历次判断

Yet Another Value Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-01看涨本条
然后还有 KKR,我今年重新建仓了,它显然拥有一个由它拥有和长期放贷的企业组成的投资组合,市场一直对软件公司、私募股权公司和私人信贷公司的投资组合中的 AI 敞口感到紧张。我重新建仓的观点是,我认为现有的投资组合就是这样,人们明白资产管理公司会因他们在 AI 出现之前购买的一些东西而受到伤害。我认为最有能力生存下来的公司是那些拥有最长业绩记录和最多蓝筹股名称的公司,它们可能会因为一两个糟糕的年份而被原谅,因为它们之前有 10 个年份表现非常好,而且它们作为优秀投资者有着如此多的经营历史,我认为它们将继续保持持久。而规模较小的中端市场公司,由于年份较少,可能因糟糕的投资而被给予较少的回旋余地。所以我认为你会看到中端市场公司的整合消失。这将继续越来越艰难地向上推进,要么向下走向没有受到 AI 影响的新初创公司,要么走向现有的蓝筹股,也就是大型另类资产管理公司。所以我认为大型另类资产管理公司将成为在私募股权和另类投资中夺取份额的受益者,同时在一个因为 AI 而快速发展的商业和经济世界中,它们也会从被动投资中夺取份额。你可以说拥有被动投资变得更难了,对吧?你真的想拥有所有那些 AI 输家的企业吗?难道你不想让主动管理者为你挑选那些可能因为投资 AI 而表现良好的企业,成为 AI 赢家吗?所以,还有很多其他原因让我觉得这很有趣,但我认为大型另类资产管理公司长期来看将成为 AI 赢家。所以这就是今天投资组合中体现出来的三种方式,我能想到的。
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