$KSPI

Kaspi值得买入:哈萨克斯坦核心业务是增长中的垄断业务,现金流强劲,土耳其扩张提供不对称上行空间。

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New Money发布 2026-08-25 · 25 段内容
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25 段内容

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6:18每一格是一段原话 · 点一下跳到视频的那个位置9:24

现在,这个目前对Monish来说只是一个非常小的仓位,但我想把这个包括进来,因为我有一种感觉,未来这可能会成为他一个更大的仓位。

Now, this one only shows up as a very small position for Monish at the current time, but I wanted to include this one because I have a feeling it could be a much bigger position for him in the future.

我这么说的原因是,就在几周前,我和Monish谈了大约一个小时,大部分时间他都只想谈论Kaspi。

And the reason I say that is because just a few weeks ago, I spoke to Monish for about an hour, and most of that time he just wanted to talk about Kaspi.

有一家总部位于哈萨克斯坦的公司叫Kaspi,是哈萨克斯坦的微信。

There's a company based in Kazakhstan called Kaspi, the WeChat of Kazakhstan.

大约10年前,Kaspi是一家破产的失败银行。这位明星经理人进来,担任CEO。他现在拥有公司大约40%或43%的股份。他把它变成了微信。

Kaspi was broken failing bank about 10 years ago. This rockstar manager comes in, CEO. He has now he's got about 40% or 43% of the company. He converts it into WeChat.

你需要驾照,或者你想购物,或者你想做任何事。我的意思是,哈萨克斯坦是一个有1000万人口的国家。它是一个小国。

And you need your driver's license, or you want to do some shopping, or anything under the sun you want to do. I mean, Kazakhstan is a country with 10 million people. It's a small country.

在哈萨克斯坦,没有其他公司能产生20亿美元的现金流。这是一个非常大的数字。那是一个异常值。他在做什么,迈克尔,这位摇滚明星CEO,他每年派发10亿美元的股息,因为他们非常盈利,对吧?

There is no other company in Kazakhstan that produces 2 billion of cash flow. That's a very large number. That's an outlier. What he was doing, Michael, the rockstar CEO, he was pumping out a billion a year in dividends because they're so profitable, right?

然后他决定,我要在土耳其复制我在哈萨克斯坦所做的事情。

Then he decided that I'm going to replicate what I I in Kazakhstan in Turkey.

所以,他在土耳其买了一家小银行,还买了一家在土耳其的、有点失败的金融科技公司。

So, he bought a small bank in Turkey, and he bought a kind of failing fintech in Turkey.

他告诉他的股东:“哦,顺便说一下,我要暂停股息一两年,因为我们需要现金来做我们要做的事情。”当他暂停股息时,他们把股票拖出去毙了。

He told his shareholders, "Oh, by the way, I'm shutting off the dividend for a year or two because we need the cash for what we're going to do." When he shut off the dividend, they took the stock out back and shot it.

所以,他下了赌注,股价已经崩盘。然后他说:“现在我们在土耳其的投资已经完成,我们要恢复股息。”所以,他只是暂停了大约12到18个月来做这个赌注,然后回来。

So, he made his bets, the stock has collapsed. And then he said, "Now we've made our investments in Turkey, we're turning the dividend back on." So, he just took a like a 12 or 18-month pause to make this bet and come back.

他是一位出色的管理者。它的股息率接近10%。它的交易价格大约是现金流的五到七倍。

He's a awesome manager. The dividend yield on it is approaching 10%. It's trading at like five to seven times cash flow.

当它被拖出去毙了的时候,中国的微信进来了,买了一大块。迈克尔自己也增加了他的持股。我看待这项业务的方式是,他们在哈萨克斯坦有核心业务,实际上仍在增长。他们还在给它增加各种花哨的功能,它做得很好,垄断等等。然后他们在土耳其有这个登月计划。

When it got taken out back and shot, WeChat in China came in, bought a big piece. Michael himself bumped up his stake as well. The way I look at this business is, they've got the core business in Kazakhstan, which is actually still growing. They're still adding bells and whistles to it, which is doing fine, monopoly and all of that. And then they have this moonshot in Turkey.

如果登月计划不成功,你能赚到两到三倍的钱。如果登月计划成功了,那我们不知道。正面我赢,反面我也赢。

If the moonshot doesn't work, you make two or three times your money. And if the moonshot does work, then we don't know. Heads I win. Tails I win.

看看这些数字,你可以看到莫尼什在说什么,每年产生20亿美元的现金流,给你大约10%的股息率。它增长迅速,市盈率只有8倍。

And looking at the numbers, you can see what Monish is talking about, spitting out 2 billion USD in cash flow each year, giving you a rough 10% dividend yield. It's growing rapidly, and it's sitting at a PE of just eight.

所以,Simply Wall Street上的贴现现金流模型认为这只股票被低估了46%。所以,如果你感兴趣,一定要在我下面链接的投资组合中进一步查看这个,但让我们继续看最新13F文件中的第四大动向,那就是Seth Klarman增持了亚马逊的股份。

So, the discounted cash flow model on Simply Wall Street has this one at 46% undervalued. So, if you're interested, definitely check this one out further in the portfolio I have linked below, but let's move on into the fourth big move coming out of the latest 13Fs, and it is Seth Klarman upping his stake in Amazon.

所以,我认为莫尼什非常喜欢这只股票。

所以,我认为莫尼什非常喜欢这只股票。

So, I think Monish likes this one a lot.

所以,与其让我给出我的看法,你可以直接听听莫尼什的看法。这是直接来自权威的消息。

所以,与其让我给出我的看法,你可以直接听听莫尼什的看法。这是直接来自权威的消息。

So, instead of me giving you my take, you can just have Monish's take on this one. This is straight from the horse's mouth.

以上 25 段为这条视频中谈及 $KSPI 的全部内容。逐字对不上字幕的段落不会收录。

他说在等什么

他自己说在等的东西,一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次,我们不合并,也不判断它有没有兑现。

这条里没有指出可核查的观察对象。频道自己没有提出,我们也不代为补写。

这个频道对 $KSPI 的历次判断

New Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-08-25看涨本条
现在,这个目前对Monish来说只是一个非常小的仓位,但我想把这个包括进来,因为我有一种感觉,未来这可能会成为他一个更大的仓位。
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这一页只记录说话人自己说过的话,不做判断、不下结论。研究辅助,非投资建议。
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