礼来（Eli Lilly）值得买入，该股被低估，预计未来12至18个月将上涨约30%。
逐段跳播
尽管礼来是第二家推出用于减重治疗的口服片剂的公司，但它已经开始获得可观的市场份额。该公司在口服GLP-1药物领域的新增用药人群中占据了超过30%的市场份额，识别出超过36,000人。
Although Eli Lilly was the second company to introduce oral pills for weight loss treatments, it had already begun to acquire a significant market share. The company boasted a market share exceeding 30% in new initiations within the oral GLP-1 drug sector , identifying more than 36,000 people.
此外，还有另一个好消息，礼来宣布了一项近期研究，表明药物Zybound可在6个月内带来医疗费用的直接节省，到第十二个月时每人每月最高可达600美元。换句话说，使用并为Z-bound付费，即使自掏腰包，从长远来看也会带来更大的节省，因为你会遇到更少的健康问题，从而减少对医疗治疗的需求。
In addition, in other good news, Eli Lilly announced a recent study indicating that the drug Zybound leads to direct savings in medical costs within 6 months, reaching up to $600 per month per person by the twelfth month .
In other words, using and paying for Z-bound, even if it's out of your own pocket, will yield greater savings in the long run because you will experience fewer health problems , reducing your need for medical treatment.
那么，这一切是否让礼来股票成为一个值得买入的好投资机会？你可以在这里看到礼来过去十二个月收入的这一增长，其跃升至800亿美元。这一数字较2022年的约300亿美元和2020年的约80亿美元有所增长。
这意味着礼来在不到10年的时间里收入增长了近10倍。
So, does all this make Eli Lilly stock a good investment opportunity to buy? You can see this increase here in Eli Lilly's revenues over the past twelve months , which jumped to $80 billion.
This figure represents an increase from approximately $30 billion in 2022 and about $8 billion in 2020. This means a nearly 10- fold increase in revenue in less than 10 years for Eli Lilly.
这在制药行业很罕见，而且这一增长率无疑超过了行业增长率。所以，礼来正在获得越来越大的市场份额。为了保持这些成果，礼来正在做进一步的改进。他们更专注于针对个体患者量身定制的治疗，而不是一刀切的减重治疗。
目前，他们有一种注射剂型和一种口服片剂，并且正在努力扩大这一产品组合，以纳入适合患者需求的不同治疗，依据的是患者主要寻求的是什么。有些患者可能追求最佳耐受性，也就是服用时引起最少干扰和不适的治疗。
其他患者可能追求最大程度的减重，而为了实现这一点，他们愿意忍受因服用这些治疗而带来的更多不适、恶心和其他胃部疼痛。基于个体需求，礼来努力提供更多可用的选择。
This is rare in the pharmaceutical industry, and this growth rate certainly exceeds industry growth rates . So, Eli Lilly is gaining an increasing market share . In order to maintain these gains, Eli Lilly is making further improvements.
They focus more on treatments tailored to individual patients rather than a one-size- fits-all weight loss treatment. Currently, they have one injectable form and one oral pill , and they are working to expand this portfolio to include different treatments that suit patients’ needs based on what they are primarily looking for .
Some patients may seek the best tolerability, that is, the treatment that causes the least amount of disturbance and discomfort when taken. Other patients may be seeking maximum weight loss, and to achieve this, they are willing to endure more discomfort, nausea, and other stomach pains as a result of taking these treatments.
Based on individual needs, Eli Lilly strives to provide more options available.
这不仅仅是增加销售额，它还伴随着非常可观的利润率。礼来的营业利润率在过去十二个月升至49.7%的创纪录高位。这较2017年的15%增长了3倍以上。所以，在这一时期，礼来的收入增长了10倍以上。
其营业利润率增长了两倍多，清楚地表明这是一家蓬勃发展、全面运营的企业。
It's not just about increasing sales, but it also comes with very profitable profit margins. Eli Lilly's operating margins have risen to record highs over the past twelve months by 49.7%.
This represents an increase of more than 3 times compared to 15% in 2017. So, in this period, Eli Lilly's revenues have increased more than 10 times. Its operating profit margins have more than tripled, a clear indication of a thriving, fully operational business .
但你在礼来身上得到的，你今天买入的，不仅仅是一家销售减重治疗的公司。你得到的是一家在花钱研发治疗方面拥有数十年经验的公司，而消费者为购买这些治疗支付数十亿美元。这才是你实际买入的东西。
这就是你获得的技能，因为，希望如此，在这个频道里，我们着眼于长期投资。我们不是想投资未来几天或几周。我们着眼的是未来几年，甚至可能是未来几十年。而减重治疗，它们的销售或许还会持续几年。
但你需要有新的治疗接续其后，才能实现公司的长期增长。鉴于这家公司已在这一领域证明了自己的实力，有理由假设它能够研发新的治疗，在减重治疗之后的年份里带来销售和增长。
But what you get with Eli Lilly, what you buy today, is not just a company that sells weight loss treatments. You are getting a company with decades of experience in spending money on research and development of treatments that consumers pay billions of dollars to buy.
This is what you are actually buying. That is the skill you gain because, hopefully, in this channel, we are looking at long-term investment. We are not looking to invest for the next few days or weeks.
We are looking ahead to the next few years and perhaps even the next few decades. And weight loss treatments, their sales may continue for a few more years, perhaps. But you need new treatments to follow that to achieve long-term growth for the company.
Given that this company has proven its prowess in this area, it is reasonable to assume that it will be able to research and develop new treatments that will generate sales and growth in the years following weight loss treatments .
更准确地说，该公司报告过去十二个月的投资资本回报率为37%，高于2017年的约10%。
To be more precise, the company reported a return on invested capital of 37% over the past twelve months, up from about 10% in 2017.
现在，对于制药公司，你会遇到大繁荣和安静的增长期，因为有些治疗可能大获成功，而另一些可能彻底失败。但平均而言，你会得到强劲的结果。礼来跑赢包括Novo Nordisk和Pfizer在内的一些制药同行并不令人意外，因为如果你看上一个十年，你会发现礼来将收入中最大的百分比用于研发。
因此，与同行相比，他们更努力，在研发上花得更多。所以，可以理解他们会取得更好的结果，以及更好的最终结果，因为他们花得更多。他们也更高效。他们不浪费资源。在过去十年里，他们在这方面与Novo和Pfizer相比显著跑赢了平均水平。
Now, with pharmaceutical companies, you will face big booms and quiet growth periods because some treatments may be huge successes while others may be complete failures. But, on average, you will get strong results.
It is not surprising that Eli Lilly outperforms some of its pharmaceutical peers, including Novo Nordisk and Pfizer, because if you look at the previous decade, you will find that Eli Lilly spent the largest percentage of its revenue on research and development.
Therefore, they work harder and spend more on research and development compared to their counterparts. Therefore , it is understandable that they will achieve better results, and better end results, because they spend more.
They are also more efficient. They do not waste resources. Over the past decade, they have significantly outperformed the average compared to Novo and Pfizer in this regard.
礼来的估值并不夸张。事实上，我觉得该股在24倍的远期市盈率下被低估了。按这一指标回溯3年，它仍处于该股交易区间的较低端。
The valuation of Eli Lilly is not exaggerated. In fact, I feel the stock is undervalued at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 24. It is still near the lower end of what the stock has traded at according to this metric going back 3 years.
同样，今天我重新审视了我对礼来的自由现金流模型，我的估算上调了，因为该公司在口服片剂版本中获得的市场份额比我此前估计的更大。因此，我上调了我的自由现金流估算。我现在对这家公司的估值为每股1,494美元，而当前市场价格为1,151美元。
这意味着我计算出礼来股票在未来十二到十八个月内约有30%的上涨空间。
Similarly, today I reviewed my free cash flow model for Eli Lilly, and my estimates came in upward because the company is gaining a larger market share in the oral pill version than I had previously estimated.
Thus, I revised my free cash flow estimates upwards. I now value this company at $1,494 per share, compared to the current market price of $1,151. This means I have calculated an increase of approximately 30% in Eli Lilly's stock over the next twelve to eighteen months.
因此，难怪我如此看好礼来股票，以至于今年早些时候为我的投资组合买入了它，并且有兴趣加仓。我认为礼来股票目前代表着一个买入机会。绝对如此，而且我对这一评级有很高的信心或信念，我将在今天，2026年9月23日更新它。
It is no wonder, then, that I am so bullish on Eli Lilly stock that I bought it for my portfolio earlier this year and I am interested in adding more. I believe that Eli Lilly stock represents a buying opportunity at the moment.
Absolutely, and I have high confidence or conviction in this rating, which I will update today, September 23, 2026.
这个频道对 $LLY 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。