洛克希德·马丁（LMT）为中等信心的买入评级，因其估值偏低（远期市盈率16.6；公允价值660美元，而股价为544美元）。
逐段跳播
在地缘政治紧张局势加剧的背景下，洛克希德·马丁公司的订单簿增加了640亿美元，这并不令人意外。这使得其总订单簿达到2300亿美元，而且这一季度增幅的规模比一些需求增长的人工智能公司还要大。
Amid rising geopolitical tensions, it is not surprising that Lockheed Martin has received a $64 billion increase in its order book . This brings its total order book to $230 billion, and this quarterly increase is larger in magnitude than some AI companies that are experiencing increased demand.
由于管理团队在这些新订单到来之前就投资增加了制造产能，公司得以比预期更早地利用这一需求。上个季度营收增长了11%，超过200亿美元。
Because the management team invested in increasing manufacturing capacity ahead of some of these new orders, the company was able to tap into the demand sooner than expected. Revenue rose 11% in the last quarter ending to exceed $20 billion.
但这一切是否使洛克希德·马丁的股票成为一个买入机会？洛克希德的销售额近十年来一直在增长，在过去12个月中达到了770亿美元，而2017年约为400亿美元。
But does all this make Lockheed Martin stock a buying opportunity? Lockheed's sales have been on the rise for nearly a decade, and in the past 12 months, they reached $77 billion , up from about $40 billion in 2017.
鉴于地缘政治紧张局势加剧，以及从美国到欧洲和亚洲各国的国防预算不断上升，可以合理假设洛克希德·马丁在可预见的未来可能保持两位数的营收增长。
Given the increasing geopolitical tension and rising defense budgets in countries ranging from the United States to Europe and Asia, it is reasonable to assume that Lockheed Martin may maintain double-digit revenue growth for the foreseeable future.
洛克希德·马丁在这方面与它们并无不同。其过去12个月的营业利润率是11.8%。这一数字正在改善，但这种营业利润率仍然非常不盈利。
Lockheed Martin is no different from them in that respect. Its operating profit margin over the past 12 months was 11.8%. It is improving, but this type of operating profit margin is still very unprofitable.
洛克希德·马丁面临的挑战在于制造效率。正如我在引言中提到的，他们有价值数千亿美元的订单。订单簿在增加。销售不是问题。问题在于有效制造以满足这些需求，同时仍留有良好的利润率供公司盈利；也就是说，你为赢得这些合同而提供的报价与制造这些产品的成本之间的差额，这使公司能够产生利润率。
The challenge for Lockheed Martin lies in manufacturing efficiency. As I mentioned in the introduction, they have orders worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Order books are increasing. Sales are not a problem. The problem is manufacturing effectively to meet those demands while still leaving a good margin available for the company to make a profit; That is, the difference between what you offer to win these contracts and the cost of manufacturing these products, which allows the company to generate a profit margin.
其投入资本回报率似乎远好于其营业利润率，而且在行业层面，以及在我之前提到的所有公司中，洛克希德·马丁拥有最好的投入资本回报率之一。
Its return on invested capital appears to be much better than its operating profit margin, and at the industry level, and among all the companies I mentioned earlier, Lockheed Martin boasts one of the best returns on invested capital.
不仅在过去的12个月中达到22%，而且在过去十年中，与国防承包商同行相比，其平均投入资本回报率也更高。
Not only in the last 12 months by 22 %, but over the previous decade it has achieved a better return on invested capital on average compared to its peers among defense contractors.
此外，这一投入资本回报率是公司加权平均资本成本的两倍多。因此，公司为投入业务的每一美元都为股东创造了可观的价值。
Furthermore , this return on invested capital is more than twice the company's weighted average cost of capital. Therefore, the company generates significant value for shareholders for every dollar invested in the business.
公司为准备新订单而在业务上投入了更多。管理团队预计订单不仅来自美国，也来自美国在欧洲和亚洲的盟友，并且已经在努力发展海外制造能力，以生产部分ATACMS防御系统。
The company has invested more in its business in preparation for new orders. The management team anticipates an increase in orders not only from the United States, but also from America’s allies in Europe and Asia, and is already working to develop those manufacturing capabilities abroad to produce some of the ATACMS defense systems.
令人惊讶的是，估值接近几年来的最低点。我说令人惊讶是因为全球各国政府增加了国防开支的预算拨款。美国正在向其盟友施压，要求他们在自身防务上增加支出，而美国本身也在增加其国防预算。
地缘政治紧张局势日益加剧，而且目前正有几场实际战争在进行。在这种背景下，我很惊讶洛克希德·马丁的远期市盈率仅为16.6。这接近该股几年来的最低交易水平。
Surprisingly, the valuation is close to the lowest point it has reached in several years. I say surprising because there is an increase in budget allocations from governments around the world for defense spending. The United States is pressuring its allies to spend more on their own defense, and the United States itself is increasing its own defense budgets. There is increasing geopolitical tension , and there are several actual wars going on as we speak . Against this backdrop, I am surprised that Lockheed Martin is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of only 16.6. This is close to the lowest trading level for this stock in several years.
当我使用贴现现金流模型进行计算时，估值似乎也同样被低估。我估计该股的公允价值为660美元，而今天你可以以544美元买入。这为洛克希德·马丁股票投资者在未来12至18个月内留下了约21%的上涨空间。
The valuation also appears to be undervalued similarly when I use my discounted cash flow model to perform the calculations. I estimated the fair value of the stock at $660, and you can buy it today for $544. This leaves room for an upside of approximately 21% over the next 12 to 18 months for Lockheed Martin stock investors.
当你评估一家风险系数（贝塔值）相对较低的防御性承包商时，这种上涨机会是罕见的。这意味着它对失业率等宏观经济因素的依赖程度较低，因此为投资者在其投资组合中提供了一定程度的分散化。
This type of upside opportunity is rare when you are evaluating a defensive contractor with a relatively low risk coefficient ( beta). This means it is less dependent on macroeconomic factors such as unemployment, and therefore provides investors with a degree of diversification in their investment portfolios.
我上次评估该公司大约在四月份，当时我将该股评为低确信度的买入机会。今天我将重复这一分类。我将洛克希德·马丁股票评为买入机会，但鉴于公司业绩的改善、估值环比提升，以及美国及其盟友国防预算持续增加的预期，我将把确信度提高到中等。
I last evaluated the company around April, where I rated the stock as a buy opportunity with a low conviction level. And today I will repeat this classification. I rate Lockheed Martin stock as a buy opportunity, but I will raise my conviction level to medium given the improvement in the company’s performance, given that the valuation has improved sequentially, and given expectations of continued increases in the defense budgets of the United States and its allies.
这个频道对 $LMT 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。