LOW的增长已陷入停滞，其内在价值正在下滑；尽管估值指标偏低，但并非真正便宜，买入前仍需进一步研究。
逐段跳播
我今天要讲的第四只股票是 Lowe's，股票代码是 LOW。这是另一家表现不如预期的公司。如你所知，创下 52 周新低的公司通常表现不佳。该股股价在过去 5 年下跌了 7.91%。在过去一年下跌了 25.61%。
The fourth stock I'll talk about today is Lowe's, whose ticker symbol is LOW. This is another company that is not doing as well as expected. And as you know, companies with 52-week lows are usually not doing well.
The stock price has fallen 7.91% in the last 5 years. It has decreased by 25.61% in the last one year.
从历史上看，这曾是一只很棒的股息增长股。你可以看到它们过去 20 年巨大的股息增长。股息在过去 10 年增长了 257%。这是 13.58% 的复合年增长率（CAGR）。然而，那现在已成为过去。
股息在过去 3 年只以 13% 或 4.35% 的 CAGR 增长。而且你可以看到，最近三次的股息增长率都在 4% 左右。
Historically, this has been a great dividend growth stock. You can see their huge dividend growth over the last 20 years. The dividend has increased by 257% in the last 10 years.
This is a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.58%. However, that is now a thing of the past. The dividend has grown at a CAGR of only 13% or 4.35% in the last 3 years. And you can see that the three most recent dividend growth rates were around 4%.
就入场点的成本股息率而言，这是过去 5 年、10 年以及 Lowe's 股票历史上最好的之一。但你是在一个不同的情况下买入它，公司不再增长，股息增长也低得多。
In terms of entry point dividend yield on cost, this is one of the best in the last 5 years, 10 years and in the history of Low's stock. But you are buying it in a different situation where the company is no longer growing and the dividend growth is much lower.
现在说到股息支付，我会说，基于它们的自由现金流和盈利，它仍然相当可持续。过去 12 个月为 38.7%，而且它一直处于 20% 到 40% 的区间。过去 12 个月的收益派息率是 41%。
仅基于它们的现金流生成和收益，这笔股息是可持续的。而且我实际上认为，这是我今天展示的所有公司中最低的派息率。
Now, speaking of dividend payments, I would say it is still quite sustainable based on their free cash flow and earnings. It has been 38.7% in the last 12 months and it has always been in the range of 20 to 40%.
The income payout ratio in the last 12 months is 41%. Based solely on their cash flow generation and income, this dividend is sustainable. And I actually think that's the lowest payout ratio of anything I've shown today.
但事实是，你看到它们支付了大量资金作为股息，但在我看来，它们在 2021 到 2023 年的股票回购上非常不负责任。曾经有一段时间，它们在过去 12 个月里花了 161.4 亿美元用于股票回购。
那是在 2022 年。而它们不得不几乎把它降到零。所以，你不再获得那部分股东回报，股息增长率也放缓了。
But the truth is, you see that they pay out a large amount of money as dividends, but in my opinion, they have been very irresponsible in their share repurchases from 2021 to 2023.
There was a time when they spent $16.14 billion on share repurchases in the past 12 months. That was in 2022. And they had to practically reduce it to zero. So, you're no longer getting that portion of shareholder return, and the dividend growth rate has also slowed.
此外，它们在股票回购上花了大量资金。那在当时超过其年度自由现金流的两倍。所以，出于某种原因，它们决定大量举债来回购股票。我不知道 Lowe's 当时在做什么。在我看来，那是一个愚蠢的决定。
And besides, they were spending a lot of money on share repurchases. Which was more than double their annual free cash flow at that time. So, for some reason they decided to take out a lot of debt to repurchase shares.
I don't know what Lowe's was doing there. In my opinion, it was a stupid decision.
所以，该公司现在有 380 亿美元的高额净债务，而它的现金流在过去 5 年停滞不前，过去 12 个月仅增长 1.92% 至 7。这是它们的自由现金流，它们可以用它来偿还债务和支付股息。
So, the company now has a very high net debt of $38 billion, and its cash flow has stagnated over the past 5 years, growing by just 1.92% over the past 12 months to $7. This is their free cash flow, which they can use to pay down debt and pay dividends.
你确实可以看到它在 2020 年处于最高水平。也许原因是住房开发的激增，因为人们在新冠疫情期间待在家里并修缮房屋。此后它从那个水平下降，并在过去几年基本停滞。
And you can really see that it was at its highest level in 2020. Perhaps the reason for this was the surge in housing development, as people were staying home and repairing homes during Covid.
It has since declined from that level and has essentially stagnated for the past few years.
该公司过去 12 个月的合并每股收益为 12.47 美元。它在过去 5 年只增长了 8%，即 1.68% 的年复合增长率。然而，它比过去 10 年好得多，增长了 236%。
The company's consolidated earnings per share over the past 12 months were $12.47. It has grown by only 8% in the last 5 years, which is an annual compound growth rate of 1.68%.
However, it is much better than the last 10 years, with a 236% increase.
所以，Lowe's 面临的大问题是，它们能否回到过去的增长水平。这家公司曾是市场上出色增长的来源。Lowe's 和 Home Depot 都是很棒的企业，但增长已经放缓，所以它们现在以更低的估值交易。
So, the big question for Lowe's is whether they can return to the growth levels of the past. This company was a source of excellent growth in the market. Lowe's and Home Depot are both great businesses, but growth has slowed, so they are now trading at lower valuations.
在过去 5 年，目前 16.18 的过去 12 个月市盈率是过去 5 年最低的，处于第 11 百分位。但问题是，每股收益在不断下降。以 10 年为基准，它看起来比历史倍数便宜。
即使回溯到 2007 年，Lowe's 股票通常也不会以这么低的市盈率交易。但同样，Lowe's 在那段时间的大部分里都是一家成长型公司。
Over the past 5 years, the current trailing 12-month P/E ratio of 16.18 is the lowest in the past 5 years, which is the 11th percentile. But the problem is, earnings per share are constantly declining.
On a 10-year basis, it looks cheaper than historical multiples. Even looking back to 2007, Lowe's shares don't usually trade at such low P/E ratios. But again, Lowe's was a growing company throughout much of that time.
说实话，公司会经历周期，尤其是那些已经存在几十年的公司。你会看到 Lowe's 在大萧条期间遭受了重大损失。这是合理的，因为它的业务主要集中于房地产。所以，从 2007 到 2013 或 2014 年，该公司在这段时期没有经历任何增长。
但在那之后，2013 到 2023 年的每股收益非常出色。它们的增长非同寻常。如果 Lowe's 在未来 10 到 20 年再经历一次这样的增长周期，今天的 Lowe's 股票就会显得便宜。
To be honest, companies go through cycles, especially those that have been around for decades. You will see that Lowe's suffered major losses during the Great Depression. This was reasonable, as its business was largely focused on real estate.
So, from 2007 to 2013 or 2014, the company did not experience any growth during this period. But after that time, earnings per share from 2013 to 2023 were excellent. Their growth was extraordinary.
And if Lowe's goes through another such growth cycle in the next 10 to 20 years, Lowe's shares today will look cheap.
但相反，我们今天所处的情况是，该股处于 52 周低点。而根据公允价值图，它似乎是一个不错的价值。但同样，基础价值在下降。它没有增长。所以，它实际上并不像股价下跌所暗示的那样便宜。
从股息角度看，它可能显得有点便宜，因为它们还没有削减股息，但增长正在放缓。
But instead, we are in a position today where the stock is at a 52-week low. And based on the fair value graph, it seems like a good value. But again, the underlying value is declining.
It is not growing. So, it's not actually as cheap as the share price decline suggests. It may seem a bit cheap on a dividend basis because they haven't cut the dividend yet, but growth is slowing.
所以，Lowe's 股票是我想要进一步研究的。在我看来，它似乎仍然不是很便宜。增长确实停滞了。而那 2.61% 的股息率，并不像 McDonald's 或 PepsiCo 那么高。而且我认为长期增长有点令人怀疑。
So, Lowe's stock is one I want to research further. In my opinion, it still doesn't seem very cheap. Growth has really stalled. And that 2.61% dividend yield, it's not as high as McDonald's or PepsiCo.
And I think the long-term growth is a bit questionable.
我不确定这三家中哪一家实际上会增长最快。也许我需要就 Lowe's 做更多研究，读一些它们的财报。我不确定它们未来有什么样的增长计划，或者它们是否能够投资于新的地点。
I'm not sure which of these three will actually grow the fastest. Maybe I need to do more research on Lowe's, read some of their earnings reports. I'm not sure what kind of growth plans they have in the future or whether they will be able to invest in a new location.
也许我需要多研究一下Lowe's，读一读他们的一些财报。我不确定他们未来有什么样的增长计划，也不确定他们是否有能力投资新的门店。
Maybe I need to do more research on Lowe's , read some of their earnings reports. I'm not sure what kind of growth plans they have in the future or whether they will be able to invest in a new location.
这个频道对 $LOW 的历次判断
Dividend Data 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。