LULU是强劲的长期买入标的,公允价值168美元,有超过38%的上涨空间,尽管近期面临关税和消费疲软带来的营收压力。
逐段跳播
最后但同样重要的是Lululemon,我计算其公允价值为168美元。当前市场价格为122美元。这意味着Lululemon股票投资者在未来12至18个月内还有超过38%的上涨空间。
Last but not least, Lululemon, which I calculated a fair value at $168. The current market price is $122. And that leaves over 38% upside for Lululemon stock investors over the next 12 to 18 months.
对我来说,Lululemon更看涨的因素之一是品牌资产,这使得公司能够以远高于竞争对手的价格销售产品。它产生的利润率在该行业中属于最佳之列,正是品牌资产使公司能够收取高价并实现销售。
One of the more bullish factors for me with Lululemon is the brand equity, which allows the company to sell products at supremely high prices compared to its competition. It generates profit margins in the best of the best in terms of this industry and it's the brand equity that allows the company to charge those high prices and generate sell through.
当然,看跌因素一直是Lululemon的焦点,因为其北美收入增长率因贸易壁垒增加而显著放缓。Lululemon几乎所有的产品都在美国以外生产,将这些产品运往美国的成本越来越高。
这不仅是因为关税税率上升,还因为某些Lululemon之前利用的漏洞被取消,这些漏洞在贸易壁垒减少和增加之前存在。
Of course, the bearish factors have been front and center with Lululemon as its revenue growth rate in North America has decelerated significantly due to increasing trade barriers. Lululemon manufactures nearly all of its products outside of the United States and shipping those products to the United States has become increasingly more costly. Not only because of increasing tariff rates, but also removal of certain loopholes that Lululemon was capitalizing on earlier before the reduction and increase in trade barriers.
第二个看跌因素更偏向短期,即消费者钱包中的可支配收入降低。由于生活成本大幅上涨,人们每月在必需品上的支出增加。人们在食品、健康保险、教育、医疗保健、交通和房租上花费更多。所有这些都减少了人们在运动服装等非必需品类上的支出。
这种情况可能至少持续到2026年剩余时间,因为我看不到导致生活成本上升和实际收入增长受限的因素有任何结束的迹象。
The second bearish factor is more of a near-term factor, and that's lower disposable income in consumer wallets. Every month, people are spending more money on necessities because of the cost of living has increased so substantially. People are paying more for food, for health insurance, for education, for health care, for transportation, for rent. And all of that is leaving less money for people to spend in discretionary categories like athletic apparel. That will likely persist at least for the rest of 2026 as I don't see any end in sight in those factors that's causing an increase in the cost of living and that's also keeping down people's real income growth.
尽管如此,尽管存在这些阻力,我认为Lululemon对长期投资者来说是一个很好的机会。我的投资组合中持有Lululemon股票,并且有兴趣增持。
Still, despite those headwinds, I think Lululemon is a great opportunity for long-term investors. I own Lululemon stock in my portfolio and I'm interested in adding more.
这个频道对 $LULU 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。