LULU面临重大逆风，股价可能在未来几个月内触底，周期将在2027年达到最低点。
逐段跳播
我们来看一下Lululemon在昨天晚些时候发布财报后的单日走势。由于同店销售数据全面令人失望，该股经历了大幅下跌。
we take a look at Lululemon's one-day chart following its earnings report late yesterday. The stock experienced a sharp decline following disappointing comparative sales results across the board.
这份财报和今天的市场反应是早盘交易的焦点，现在Marley Cayden加入我们进行更详细的分析。Marley，我们昨天在数据发布后立即进行了讨论，从一开始这些数据就令人失望。
This earnings report and today's reaction are the focus of morning trading, and now Marley Cayden joins us for a closer look . Marley, we discussed these numbers as soon as they were released yesterday, and they were disappointing from the start.
在很多方面情况变得更糟，但当你审视这份报告时，很难找到积极的一面。
Things have gotten worse in many ways, but when you look at the report , it is hard to find a positive side.
我通常试图指出一些亮点，但在这份报告中很难找到任何亮点。坦率地说，考虑到所谓的公司转型或战略重组，这不是市场对Lululemon预期的季度。
I usually try to point out some bright spots. But it is very difficult to find any of them in this report. Frankly, this was not the quarter everyone was expecting from Lululemon, given what could be called the company's transformation or strategic restructuring.
它下降了18%。这是重大失误。本季度业绩令人失望，预期再次下调。每股收益为2.06美元，好于预期的1.79美元，但营收下降了4%，也低于预期。
It has decreased by 18%. Major failures here. Disappointing results with expectations lowered again this quarter. Earnings per share amounted to $2.06. This is better than the expected $1.79, but revenue fell by 4% and also came in below expectations.
然而，真正的关键问题在于同店销售。整体同店销售下降了9%，按固定汇率计算下降了10%。整体表现并不出色。北美同店销售下降了约12%。
However, the real big picture here is comparative sales. Their comparable sales fell by 9% overall, and by 10% on a constant dollar basis. It was n't a great performance at all. Comparative sales fell by about 12% in North America.
中国营收增长了4%，但下降了2%，同店销售下降了8%。因此，在中国市场也存在失误。在世界其他地区，同店销售下降了3%。他们原本非常期待那里的复苏，尤其是在中国。因此，这正是公司真正陷入困境的地方。
China recorded a 4% increase in revenue, but a 2% decrease, with comparable sales declining by 8%. So, there is a failure in China as well. In the rest of the world, comparable sales fell by 3%. They were really looking forward to a recovery there, specifically in China. So, this is where things really became problematic for the company.
毛利润也下降了1%。毛利率增长了5.6%，但这主要得益于1.345亿美元的税收返还。临时首席执行官Megan Frank表示，社交媒体上的负面评论影响了业绩。
Gross profit also decreased by 1%. Gross profit margin grew by 5.6%, but this was mainly supported by a tax refund of $134.5 million . Megan Frank, the interim CEO, indicated that negative comments on social media had affected performance.
这与第一季度的情况几乎相同，当时他们与创始人Chip Wilson发生了某种争执。公司表示，在包括紧身裤在内的一些核心品类中，放缓速度超过预期，并且产品发布的反响仍然“不稳定”，这是他们使用的措辞。全年和本季度的指引均已下调。
It's pretty much the same story as in the first quarter, where they got into some sort of row with founder Chip Wilson. The company said it also saw a greater-than-expected slowdown in some of its core categories, including leggings, and that product launch responses remained "inconsistent," which is the term they used. Guidance has been lowered for the entire year and for the current quarter.
他们表示难以恢复元气。随着竞争范围的扩大，他们在重新获得相关性方面面临困难。这导致了一系列对该股目标价的下调。
They said they were having difficulty regaining their strength. They are facing difficulties in regaining their relevance as the scope of competition widens. This has led to a series of reductions in the stock's price target.
Trust 将目标价从 94 美元下调至 82 美元，同时维持“卖出”评级。他们表示，当前的阻力将被证明更具结构性。在领导层变动的背景下，转型过程仍然漫长且不确定。
Trust lowered its target to $82 from $94 while maintaining its "sell" rating. They said the current headwinds would prove to be more structural. The transition process remains long and uncertain in light of the change in leadership.
德意志银行将目标价从 127 下调至 98，同时维持“持有”评级。法国巴黎银行将价格从 88 美元下调至 44 美元。他们在此打了五折。他们维持“跑输大盘”评级。
Deutsche Bank lowers its target price from 127 to 98 while maintaining its rating at "hold". BNP Paribas reduces the price from $88 to $44. They made a 50% discount there. They maintain a "underperforming the market" rating.
在巴克莱，他们将其从 113 下调至 95。美国银行将价格从 140 下调至 122。供您参考，我们目前交易价格正好为 100 美元。
At Barclays , they reduced it from 113 to 95 . Bank of America lowered the price from 140 to 122. For your information, we are currently trading at exactly $100 .
美国银行表示，中国第二季度业绩令人失望，北美缺乏进展，正在进一步推迟复苏时间表。但他们表示，首席执行官 Heidi O'Neill 将于下周加入。因此，随着新管理层的到来，下个季度有可能出现战略变化。
Bank of America says disappointing second-quarter results in China and a lack of progress in North America are pushing the recovery timeline further . But they indicated that CEO Heidi O'Neill would join next week. Therefore, there is a possibility of a change in strategy in the next quarter with the new management.
但总的来说，摩根大通、伯恩斯坦、Baird、Stifel、Piper Sandler、摩根士丹利，等等。富国银行、瑞银，都下调了目标价，并且都引用了类似的关于令人失望的业绩的评论。
But in general, J.P. Morgan, Bernstein, Baird, Stifel, Piper Sandler, Morgan Stanley, and the list goes on. Wells Fargo, UBS, all lower their target prices, and all cite similar comments about disappointing results.
美国银行有一个稍微乐观一点的观察，称管理层变动可能导致其当前状况发生根本性改变。但目前没有人将其视为积极因素。
Bank of America had a somewhat more optimistic observation, saying that there was a possibility that a change in management would lead to a fundamental change in their current situation. But no one is looking at it as a positive thing at the moment .
是的，在本季度，盈利反应复杂，这个故事不言自明。好的，Marlow，我们感谢你的分享。现在让我们进入交易时段。KKM Financials 的管理合伙人 Dan Deming 本周五早上和我们在一起。
你知道，Dan，我非常想听听你的看法，因为我们刚刚把它放到屏幕上。该股已从最高点下跌约 80%。所以，在某个时点，可能已经达到抛售高峰，但你怎么看？
Yes, and in this quarter, where earnings were complicated in terms of reactions, this story writes itself. Okay, Marlow, we appreciate that. Let's move on to trading now. Dan Deming, managing partner at KKM Financials, is with us this Friday morning. And you know, Dan, I'm very eager to hear your opinion here because we just put it on screen. The stock has fallen by about 80% from its highest levels. So, at some point, it may have reached peak selling, but how do you view it?
是的，也许吧，Alex。也许在某个时点，但现在还没有。我不这么认为。所以，我认为这里有一些主要的阻力。正如我提到的，一些分析师继续下调该股的评级。
Yes, maybe, Alex. Maybe at some point, but not yet. I don't think so . So, I think there are some major headwinds here. As I mentioned, some analysts continue to downgrade the stock's rating.
最终，这份报告看起来已经糟糕到极点，未来几个月该股有可能触底，而 Lululemon 的周期将在 2027 年继续达到最低点。
Ultimately, this report looks as bad as it can be, and there is a possibility that in the next few months the stock will bottom out, with the cycle continuing to reach its lowest point for Lululemon by 2027.
所以，今天的交易模型，Alex，是捕捉进一步下跌的可能性，但如果我们看到未来一个月在 90 美元或更低水平出现大量抛售，也有机会买入该股。
So, today's trading model, Alex, is to catch the possibility of further declines, but also to have an opportunity to buy the stock if we see heavy selling over the next month at the $90 level or lower.
因此，今天的交易模型是以 1 比 2 的比例买入 10 月份执行价为 190 的“看跌”期权。我认为这是 42 天前的事。它提供了一个很好的逢低买入区域，成本目前约为 100。我认为在 1.90 美元到 2 美元之间。
Therefore, today’s trading model is to buy a “put” option with an execution price of 190 at a ratio of 1 to 2 in October. I think this was 42 days ago. It provides a good area for picking up the dip, where the cost is currently around 100. I think it's between $ 1.90 and $2.
价格已从之前的 102 交易水平略有上涨。然而，这里的想法是捕捉下行区间，有可能在 90 以下获得买入机会。而且我再次认为，如果这种崩跌继续下去，我们可能会达到一个存在潜在参与价格反弹的心态的时点。
The price has risen slightly from its previous level of trading at 102 . However, the idea here is to capture a downward range , with the potential to get a buying opportunity below 90. And I think again, if this collapse continues as it is, we may reach a point where there is a mindset for potential participation in a price rebound.
这个头寸的盈亏平衡点，Alex，下行方向是 82 美元。我也想指出这一点。所以，在它变得有问题之前，这里有足够的空间着陆。
The break-even point for this position, Alex, for the downside is $82. I wanted to point that out as well. So, there's plenty of room to land here before it gets problematic.
这个频道对 $LULU 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。